It’s Week 16, and for fantasy football leagues, it means it’s playoff time. You either win or go home — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (at SEA)
Aaron Jones has not been Josh Jacobs-levels of good, but he’s been great, and fantasy managers can feel good about counting on him this week against a defense that allows the fifth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs.
Jones has multiple receptions in four straight games and at least 15 carries in six of his past eight. This isn’t the type of running back with a clean path to top-five value, but safely sliding into the top 20 seems safe, and that’ll work this time of year.
Alexander Mattison | LV (vs. JAX)
Alexander Mattison out-carried Ameer Abdullah 7-3 with Sincere McCormick going down early last week and profiles as this team’s leader in rush attempts against a vulnerable Jacksonville defense this week (24th in RB rushing TD%).
That said, last week wasn’t an intimidating matchup either, and yet, Desmond Ridder (28 yards on five carries) was as effective as it got on the ground for Vegas (RBs: 17 carries for 37 yards).
We’ve seen this Mattison story before (under 4.0 yards per carry in four straight games) and I’m not betting my fantasy season on him flipping the script in an offense that offers very little in terms of versatility.
Alvin Kamara | NO (at GB)
Alvin Kamara made one of the better touchdown catches you’ll see from a running back last week and became the fourth player in NFL history with 50+ rushing TDs and 25+ receiving TDs in his career (Lenny Moore, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey).
The versatility and production have been special this season when you consider the numerous moving pieces. Unfortunately, he’s dealing with a groin injury and that means he likely won’t be at your disposal for Monday night
The Saints are taking a cautious approach, and I’d expect that to be the case for the remainder of the season. If he suits up again in 2024, I’m likely to read that as New Orleans is fully sold on its RB1’s health and, thus, starting him.
Ameer Abdullah | LV (vs. JAX)
Ameer Abdullah had nearly as many receptions (seven) as rushing yards (eight) last week against the Falcons, and due to Sincere McCormick’s (ankle) injury, another viable PPR stat line is very possible against the fifth-worst scoring defense in the NFL.
There’s an inherent risk that comes with betting on the Raiders, but if you’re looking this far down the rankings, you’ve come to terms with some downside. The upside here is about as high as any streamer — we saw the Raiders come out with an ultra-conservative game plan on Monday night and I’d expect nothing different for the remainder of 2024.
I have Abdullah ranked as a low-end Flex, checking in alongside Tennessee’s Tyjae Spears.
Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs. NYG)
Bijan Robinson ran for a season-high 125 yards last week against the Raiders and has at least 22 carries in back-to-back-to-back games (he didn’t have a single such game previously this season).
If you gave me Robinson’s role OR volume, I’d be talking him up as an RB1, the fact that we get both is what league championships are made of, especially when facing the third-worst rush defense by EPA.
I don’t love his four targets netting just 19 yards over the past two weeks, but I’m willing to acknowledge that we can’t have everything. I prefer Saquon Barkley’s offensive environment and Jahmyr Gibbs’ situations sans David Montgomery, but that’s it at the running back position for this week, for the rest of this season, and potentially for the next handful of years.
Blake Corum | LAR (at NYJ)
Blake Corum gets his drive or two a game, and that’s cute. It’s also infuriating for those holding Kyren Williams’ bags, but that’s all it is. It’s just a wrinkle, not a feature.
The rookie has posted a sub-20% snap share in consecutive games and for the bulk of the season, outside of an outlier Week 13 win against the Saints, in which he was on the field for 32.7% of the Rams’ plays.
Corum has yet to clear eight touches in a game this season. While holding a handcuff was a logical strategy up to this point, you’re in go-for-it mode now. You don’t need to cut ties with Corum, but if you’re trying to maximize the number of Flex options you have in a do-or-die situation, I’d much rather use that roster spot for a home-run-hitting receiver or a secondary RB where there are questions about the starter.
As things stand right now, we have no reason to think that Williams will see anything less than his standard workload this week, which means that Corum doesn’t project as a usable piece.
Braelon Allen | NYJ (vs. LAR)
The hope was that we would get a Bucky Irving-type late-season spurt from Braelon Allen, but that narrative was halted in a hurry. For some reason, the team opted to play Breece Hall last week, and that relegated Allen to a bench role.
The talented rookie was on the field for just 18.5% of offensive snaps, his third-lowest rate of the season and a role that resulted in just two opportunities. Allen may fill a role as a top-five handcuff next season, and that’ll be roster-worthy, but you can move on for a player with a more immediate role upside for right now.
Breece Hall | NYJ (vs. LAR)
Breece Hall returned from a knee injury and was essentially the leader of a full-blown committee.
Not ideal.
Four different Jets handled New York’s first four carries last week, and that’s a problem. I still have Hall labeled as the leader in this backfield, and that makes him a Flex option when you consider the matchup (LAR: sixth-worst points per drive defense).
He averaged 4.6 yards per carry for his career with a 75.3% catch rate. He’s certainly not the lead back we were hoping for back in September, but I think you can still get away with playing him this weekend.
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (vs. PHI)
Sunday was the ninth time this season Philadelphia didn’t allow its opponent to pick up more than 30% of its third downs. I’ve got my concerns about Washington’s ability to extend drives and thus maximize the value of its RB1, but that, at some level, is nitpicking.
I’m starting Brian Robinson Jr. wherever I have him. His nine top-25 finishes this season are a strong mark on his résumé, and I liked that I saw some creativity in this offense a week ago. Early on, they schemed up something of a sprint screen to get him in space.
The pass was technically thrown backward, so you don’t get a point for the reception while the play-by-play summary just flags it as a 20-yard run, but the thought that went into just one play was encouraging.
The Eagles own the fourth-lowest TD rate to running backs, and that removes Robinson from my DFS player pool, but in re-draft situations, I’m calling his number.
Bucky Irving | TB (at DAL)
This kid is the real deal. Bucky Irving had a 40+ yard carry in each of his past three games in which he saw 5+ carries and has a 15+ yard catch in three of his past four overall.
The rookie has been dealing with a back injury, but it didn’t sap him of any explosion last week; in a much more favorable spot this time around, counting on 14-18 touches and 100 scrimmage yards is plenty reasonable (nine finishes inside the top 24 this season).
The Cowboys are the fourth-worst rush defense by EPA, putting Irving in a spot to win in the traditional run, something that should alleviate Irving managers of any concerns when it comes to Rachaad White’s involvement.
Cam Akers | MIN (at SEA)
Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case — and that’s where we stand right now.
Chase Brown | CIN (vs. CLE)
Chase Brown has at least 20 touches in five of his past six games and continues to look the part of an elite fantasy asset. Whether it is chunk plays on the ground or uncovering in a scramble situation, Brown fits this offense like a glove. Expecting the Browns to slow him twice in one season is not something I’m willing to do (15 carries for 44 yards in Week 7 with 22 of those yards coming on a single burst).
I like the chances of this 24-year-old extending his streak of top-10 RB finishes to seven straight games in what should be a comfortable Cincy win (check back for the betting picks article this weekend).
Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs. ARI)
Chuba Hubbard is one touchdown away from joining Christian McCaffrey as the only Panther RB since 2010 with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 total scores in a season. Putting his name on a list with only McCaffrey is a bit dramatic, but what he has done as a part of a limited offense is nothing short of special.
With Jonathon Brooks done for the season (ACL), there’s no obvious carry competition. Given Hubbard’s contract extension, it’s logical to think that this team could shut him down, but until we hear that speculated, I’m planning on running Hubbard out there as a rock-solid RB2.
This season, Arizona is allowing the second-most yards per carry after first contact to opposing running backs. I think you can pencil in a nice rebound effort in what should be a more competitive game.
D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs. DET)
That’s now two straight games without multiple catches and four straight without a score for D’Andre Swift. He entered last week’s loss to the Vikings listed as questionable with a groin injury, but his usage (20 touches for the first time since Week 9 at Arizona) would suggest that the team wasn’t the least bit concerned.
I think the touch count is what you need to hang your hat on and chase. The touchdowns are going to be spotty until Caleb Williams develops consistency, but if we can bank on 16+ carries and/or multiple catches, something he’s done in 10 of his past 11 games, I think we are looking at a viable RB2 more often than not.
David Montgomery | DET (at CHI)
David Montgomery was the featured back on Thanksgiving in this matchup (21-9 carry edge over Jahmyr Gibbs), and his managers were hopeful for more of the same this week with their fate on the line — but that won’t be the case.
Dan Campbell announced on Monday afternoon that the veteran RB is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery. We are awaiting a rehab timeline when it comes to our adjustment of dynasty rankings, but it goes without saying that Montgomery can safely be released in redraft formats.
For those of you still in the postseason of your fantasy leagues, I’m not expecting Detroit to plug in a secondary back to fill this void. Gibbs should get all of the work he can handle while more onus figures to be put at the feet of this passing game as well.
Devin Singletary | NYG (at ATL)
Devin Singletary got New York’s second carry last week, but that didn’t prove to be predictive of a heavy workload as he extended his streak of single-digit carry games to eight straight.
The veteran’s usage is more annoying to Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s managers than impactful otherwise. His 35% snap share from last week was his highest since Week 8 and still isn’t really enough to dent fantasy lineups. His two red-zone touches on Sunday were one more than he had in his previous seven games combined, so it’s something that I’m tracking but not something I’m overreacting to from a single game as a 16-point underdog.
De’Von Achane | MIA (vs. SF)
De’Von Achane is a prime example of why we hold versatility in such high regard. His efficiency as a rookie was off the charts, and while that is a nice outlet to have, it’s tough to make a living on something like that that can fade with time.
The second-year back has gone four straight games without a 15-yard rush, something that would have seemed impossible just 12 months ago. As disappointing as those struggles are, Achane’s fantasy managers haven’t blinked.
Over those four games, he’s pulled in 24 passes for 160 yards and three scores — he’s essentially been a viable receiver who happened to get a dozen carries per game.
As long as Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, this year and moving forward, you’re starting Achane and banking on top-10 production at the position.
Isaiah Davis | NYJ (vs. LAR)
Isaiah Davis is a fifth-round pick out of South Dakota State who has seen his usage increase lately. His 19 touches over the past two weeks are interesting but not impactful in terms of how I’m approaching Week 16.
At the end of the day, he’s more of a drain on Breece Hall/Braelon Allen than a threat to realistically be ranked as a viable option. This recent Aaron Rodgers heater impacts his two star receivers and leaves a committee backfield feeding on the scraps.
Isaac Guerendo | SF (at MIA)
Remember all that time and energy we spent a week ago trying to get inside the head of Kyle Shanahan and the usage projection for a banged-up (foot) Isaac Guerendo?
Let’s be smarter.
Adam Schefter came out with confidence the day of the game last week and said that Guerendo was going to play. He doubled down by starting San Francisco’s RB1 in his most important fantasy league (yes, he’s one of us!).
In addition to the most plugged-in man in professional sports reassuring us, many were overlooking the obvious — this is the 49ers, and they rarely halfway use a running back.
San Francisco’s bell-cow role, percentage of RB touches:
- Weeks 1-2, Jordan Mason: 87.5%
- Weeks 10-11, Christian McCaffrey: 89.3%
- Weeks 14-15, Guerendo (minus Q4 of Week 14): 94.4%
Those aren’t “good” rates; they’re borderline psychotic in today’s game, but that’s what this team believes in. Instead of regressing their rates, as injuries suggest may be wise, the 49ers double (and triple) down.
Now, from a results standpoint, Week 15 wasn’t great. The 49ers mustered just six points, which meant that Guerendo’s 20 touches could only be somewhat impactful (75 yards).
I know it’s hard to overlook the results for the process this time of year, but no matter how your matchup played out last week, playing Guerendo against a defense that, entering the week, ranked 26th in rush EPA was the right call.
Until I have a reason to pivot, I refuse. The 49ers are struggling (their TD rate has fallen from 33.5% last season to 20.8% this year), but their willingness to commit in an elite way to a single player is going to suck me in every time.
With Guerendo now trending in the wrong direction, Patrick Taylor Jr. goes from relative unknown to legitimate fantasy Flex option. The fourth year back has just 14 carries this season and 79 on his NFL resume, but we did see him hold down a full-time role in college and projects as the favorite to get the work this week.
That’s not to say he’s a must start (Miami held Joe Mixon to 23 yards on 12 carries last weekend), but it’s rare to find projectable volume on your waiver wire this time of year and he certainly projects for plenty of opportunities this being labeled as a coin flip game.
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at CHI)
Jahmyr Gibbs had “league winner” potential on his own merit, but with David Montgomery’s season coming to an end on Monday, this is a true wheels-up situation.
He turned nine carries into 87 yards in the Week 13 meeting with these Bears (21 carries for Montgomery), and the duo combined for 53 receiving yards in the narrow victory. It would be irresponsible to simply heap all of Montgomery’s usage onto Gibbs’ plate, so let’s not do that. How about we just label what the second year back is already doing as sustainable?
Is that fair?
Gibbs has been an RB1 in four of his past five games and could be the RB1 for the remainder of this season (and into next should Montgomery’s recovery lag).
James Conner | ARI (at CAR)
Carolina has allowed a touchdown on seven of eight red-zone trips over their past two games (previous three: 5-of-13), opening up a path for James Conner to potentially repeat last week, his first multi-TD effort of the season.
In theory, you’d expect a player with Conner’s résumé to slow with time, but I’m not seeing it. He ripped off a 53-yard run in the first quarter against the Patriots last week, his longest as a Cardinal, and if not for a shoestring tackle, it’s an 80-yard score.
He’s getting the usage in close and in the passing game. There’s nothing to not like in this profile, and you can feel great about continuing to count on Arizona’s star.
James Cook | BUF (vs. NE)
Buffalo running backs last week, against one of the best defenses in the league, picked up 285 scrimmage yards and scored three times.
No big deal.
James Cook was a big part of that, notching his third game this season with 100 rushing yards and his fourth with multiple rushing scores. I’m willing to write off Ty Johnson’s usage last week as more of a matchup thing than anything else, so I’m not too worried about the role of Cook in this explosive offense. He’s been a top-12 producer at the position in four of his past five games.
This season, the Patriots allow points at the 10th-highest rate, the fourth-most yards to running backs before contact per carry, and the second-highest passer rating when targeting RBs. You’re thanking your lucky stars to have a piece of this offense and enjoying the ride.
Jaylen Wright | MIA (vs. SF)
It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June — he’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Jerome Ford, CLE (at CIN)
Jerome Ford, welcome back into our lives!
He took over for Nick Chubb last week and turned nine touches into 104 yards, highlighted by a 62-yard touchdown. We aren’t going to get anything close to that level of efficiency moving forward, but a versatile skill set is awfully appealing next to a conservative backup quarterback.
The Bengals are the eighth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, and I expect them to see a heavy dosage of this feisty 25-year-old. When injury reports are finalized, I expect to have Ford ranked as an RB2, not bad for someone who very possibly was on your waiver wire entering this week.
Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs. TEN)
I’m sure there are people out there that were eliminated by Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball before crossing the goal line last week and, for those people, I’m sorry. This game of ours can be mentally taxing, and losing like that is going to take some time to recover from.
The Colts, albeit without Taylor or Anthony Richardson, managed to run for just 80 yards on 28 carries in the first meeting with the Titans. This Tennessee defense can have success, and I worry that they do against what is essentially a one-dimensional offense in Indy these days. But don’t confuse them as a shutdown unit that can’t be beaten — they’ve allowed at least three points per drive on five occasions this season.
With over 95 rushing yards in consecutive games, Taylor is a fringe RB1 this week. I still think he has an elite upside, something most are not giving him credit for. The Titans have allowed the highest passer rating on RB targets this season, and that has largely been what has been missing from JT’s profile (his last game with more than 12 receiving yards came in September).
I’m not calling for a vintage performance, but I’m not ruling it out. You’re starting him in all season-long spots, and I’ll have some DFS exposure.
Josh Jacobs | GB (vs. NO)
Josh Jacobs had nine touches in the first six minutes on Sunday night, tying him for the most such touches in a game during the 2000s. It’s almost as if this team brought in the former Raider for a very distinct reason.
I still believe Jordan Love holds the key to unlocking a run through the NFC for this team, but balance would make that possible. Jacobs has four catches in three of his past five games, a level of versatility that locks him into the top 10 at the position — this matchup vaults him inside the top five.
Jacobs has 13 red-zone touches across his last two home games, and we could see more of the same with Green Bay heavily favored. The Saints are a bottom-three defense against RBs in rush EPA, success rate, and rush TD percentage. You got a bargain on draft day, and now you have a good chance to advance in your playoff bracket.
Kendre Miller | NO (at GB)
Alvin Kamara is set to undergo more testing on his ailing groin, and that feels like coach-speak for “I’m looking to shut down a running back with over $14 million left on his contract.”
Reporting late in the week has that as likely to keep Kamara out of Week 16 at the very least and could possible be a laying of the foundation to end his season.
If I have this read correctly, Kendre Miller, a third-round pick just a season ago, will get the chance to build on the nine carries for 46 yards that he put on film last weekend against the Commanders.
This, of course, isn’t an ideal spot. The Packers own the seventh-best run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs and figure to be operating with a lead, something that could lead to a script that trends away from Miller (12 catches in 12 NFL appearances and 12.4 carries for every catch during his three seasons at TCU).
That said, this could be a Zamir White situation from last season, where a young back is loaded up with work in an effort to evaluate. If that is reported to be likely, he could sneak into my top 30 this week.
This is a quantity over quality play, but after four months of wear-and-tear on fantasy rosters, that puts him firmly in the Flex conversation.
Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs. MIN)
Kenneth Walker III missed last week with an ankle/calf injury and his status for this week is TBD. Zach Chabonnet filled the full version of Walker’s role in Week 14 (29 touches and seven catches on seven targets) and seemed poised to do so again in Week 15, but the game with the Packers was never close enough to really get a feel.
I don’t think we have a changing of the guard in Seattle should everyone be healthy; the idea of this being a committee and/or hot-hand situation is certainly there.
Walker has had his health issues in the past, and it’s not as if he was overwhelmingly productive before getting banged up (Weeks 8-13: 31.1% below PPR expectations).
Keep an eye on every update coming out of Seattle this week. They are going to want to establish the run to help neutralize Minnesota’s aggressive playcalling, but how they go about that is to be determined. Should we get a clean bill of health for Walker, he’ll be ranked ahead of Charbonnet for me, but the gap won’t be nearly what it was a month ago.
Kyren Williams | LAR (at NYJ)
Who among us doesn’t like a sandwich?
Exactly, no one. It’s compliment sandwich time for Kyren Williams managers who are hoping to ride Los Angeles’ bell cow to the promised land as the Rams chase a divisional title.
The role.
Williams is featured at a level that essentially no one can compete with these days. He enters Week 16 having notched 29 carries and multiple catches in consecutive games, joining Le’Veon Bell as the only players with such a streak since 2012.
If you gave me this role, a scrawny nerd who has been writing about fake sports for nearly two decades, I’d be somewhere on the low end of Flex considerations — we’re talking about a built-in floor that is nothing short of elite.
The bad.
Williams produced at a rate that was 33% under expectation on Thursday night. It was his third-worst showing of the season and the eighth time in 14 games in which his on-paper production has failed to reach what we would have expected from an average NFL back given his exact role.
The rebound.
“It was his third-worst showing of the season.” True. What’s also true is that all three of those games have come on the road against divisional opponents who have more familiarity with the intricacies of this offense than the other 28 teams in the NFL. Guess what? Three road divisional games are all you get for a season!
This season, Williams has produced 10.7% over expectation when not on the road against NFC West teams (39% under expectation in those three games), and that’s the version I think you can bank on seeing this week — a moderately efficient RB with the most advantageous role in the game.
Last week left you wanting more; I don’t think that’s the case here.
Nick Chubb | CLE (at CIN)
Nick Chubb broke his foot over the weekend, bringing to a close what has been a lost season for anyone who rolled the dice on him off of last season’s knee injury (3.3 yards per carry).
The team doesn’t expect this injury to require surgery, and that’s good news, but we are firmly in a spot where we will need to see more than him squatting a small village to reinvest this summer with the injuries piling up on a soon-to-be 29-year-old body that has north of 1,500 NFL touches.
Patrick Taylor Jr | SF (at MIA)
Patrick Taylor Jr.’s name popped onto fantasy radars once Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason were lost for the season. He now projects as the betting favorite to lead this backfield in work with Isaac Guerendo deemed, on Thursday, unlikely to play.
We have very little evidence of what the fourth year pro is or isn’t on the professional level, but we do know a few things. We know that his versatility is limited and that this system is fruitful for running backs, even as we move down the depth chart.
Since 2022, running backs in this Kyle Shanahan system average 1.82 yards per carry before first contact, second best over that stretch (Eagles) and 36.8% better than league average. In this a coin flip game, I’m counting on Taylor to get his hands on the ball, assuming Guerendo is officially ruled out, 14-17 times with some reasonable scoring equity against an ordinary scoring defense — he’s a low-end Flex for me that can bail you out if need be.
Rachaad White | TB (at DAL)
This backfield is slowly moving away from Rachaad White, and I think that’s right, but it’s not going in that direction fast enough to render White useless. Bucky Irving played 62.5% of Tampa Bay’s first-quarter snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 6.
White didn’t help matters by losing a fumble last week in Los Angeles, but he salvaged the fantasy afternoon with an 11-yard touchdown catch as the Bucs poured it on late. I don’t have this projected as a committee situation, and that introduces risk to White’s profile, but as a road favorite with plenty of scoring equity, I don’t have a problem considering him a top-30 back in this matchup.
Even with a diminishing role, White has at least 10 carries in five straight in addition to his consistent usage in the passing game.
Raheem Mostert | MIA (vs. SF)
Raheem Mostert returned from a hip injury last week against the Texans and got nine touches, but nothing that resulted in a meaningful rise in his rest-of-season fantasy stock
The 21-touchdown season feels like a lifetime ago. We’ve seen a few star running backs be kicked to the curb by one team and thrive with another — don’t forget that there are two sides to that coin.
Every season we see fantasy RBs fall off a production cliff (whether it is the result of a role change, a decline in physical abilities, or otherwise), and that needs to be considered next season as some of the top-ranked running backs are going to have some tread on their tires.
Mostert doesn’t need to be rostered in any format, a decision that was effectively made for you around Halloween. Mostert is a great example of the value you can gain by reacting early to what teams are telling you via usage.
Ray Davis | BUF (vs. NE)
Ray Davis has failed to reach 30 yards from scrimmage in four of his past five games, and with Ty Johnson playing ahead of him on passing downs last week, his status as a one-for-one James Cook replacement is far from a certainty.
He’s a change-of-pace back, but if this offense is going to ask Josh Allen to wear the cape, there’s really no reason to roster any secondary back in Buffalo as they attempt to chase the conference’s top seed.
I think you can safely forget Davis’ name for the remainder of 2024, but I’d caution against doing so for 2025.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at BUF)
Rhamondre Stevenson is the football equivalent of the BRAT diet: simple, unexciting, and something that can make you feel OK when your stomach is upset.
In this case, our “stomach” is our fantasy backfield. Nothing he does is exciting (at least 15% of his carries have failed to gain yardage in eight straight games), but there are only four running backs this season with more 20-carry, one-catch games than New England’s featured back (Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, and Kyren Williams).
Stevenson hasn’t finished better than RB18 since doing so in Week 9. He could get there against the seventh-worst rush defense in terms of yards per carry before contact allowed to running backs, but even if he doesn’t, him sinking your lineup given his role is unlikely.
There’s value in that.
Rico Dowdle | DAL (vs. TB)
Is there an offense that looks more different statistically now compared to preseason expectations than the Cowboys?
We entered the season praising Dak Prescott and wanting as much exposure to this passing game as possible, labeling the backfield as a bottom-tier room that would promote a pass-heavy script for Dallas.
As we sit here in Week 16, Rico Dowdle is looking to join Priest Holmes, Arian Foster, Nick Goings, and Fast Willie Parker as the only undrafted RBs in the 2000s with four straight 100-yard rushing games in the regular season.
Life comes at you fast. He’s been a top-20 running back in four straight games, and if the Cowboys are going to keep this game tight, it’s going to be because their bellcow is gashing the defense that allows the sixth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs.
Even with an optimistic spin on a few injury situations in my early Week 16 ranks, Dowdle is a fine RB2. If a few backs fall out of the ranks, he’ll move inside my top 15.
Roschon Johnson | CHI (vs. DET)
Roschon Johnson (concussion) has now missed consecutive games and is a pretty clear cut for those still playing. He’s proven more than capable of cashing in his scoring opportunities (6 of 8 on carries inside the 5-yard line), but are we at all confident that those opportunities present themselves in this matchup should Johnson suit up?
I’m not. Johnson didn’t get a carry in the Thanksgiving meeting, and while the Bears managed to score 20 points, two of the touchdowns came from beyond 30 yards, a situation in which Johnson is rarely on the field.
If Johnson is active, my D’Andre Swift projection will dip a touch, but this bully back wouldn’t be close to my Flex rankings.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (at WAS)
No one is complaining, but after consecutive games with both a 30+ yard rush and catch, Saquon Barkley doesn’t have a run gaining more than 25 yards or a catch picking up more than five in three straight.
Rumors were swirling last week that the MVP candidate was banged up, but Barkley refused to address the situation. There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of injury risk, but this is a player who hasn’t completed a full regular season since 2018, so make sure to keep tabs on this situation as this week progresses.
Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley are both worthwhile additions, with the threat of an injury at least on the radar, though the two would likely cannibalize one another should Barkley sit.
The star tailback piled up 198 scrimmage yards in the first meeting with Washington (the worst defense in the league in terms of yards allowed per contact), and as things stand right now, you’re locking him into your lineup — if we get an ownership discount, he makes for a very interesting pay up to be different RB in the DFS streets.
Sincere McCormick | LV (vs. JAX)
I’m generally skeptical about players self-reporting news, but Sincere McCormick’s posting on Instagram that he’ll “be back next season” seems pretty cut and dry. The 24-year-old undrafted back out of UTSA was thrust into duty for a floundering offense for a few weeks and managed to pick up 4.9 yards per carry.
He had a 15+ yard touch in all four games in which he touched the football and is a name to keep in the back of your head for next season. It’s difficult to know what this backfield will look like in eight months and if this offense as a whole will be any better, but I was encouraged by the production we got in a tiny sample from McCormick.
Tank Bigsby | JAX (at LV)
Tank Bigsby was cast aside last week in favor of Travis Etienne Jr., and while I have no doubt that there is the potential for that to flip in the other direction without any warning, does it matter?
We saw a few splash plays from the second-year back in the middle of the season, and I fear that those highlights have colored our opinion of him. The fact of the matter is that he looked lost as a rookie and, over his past six games, has had nowhere to run (0.09 yards per carry before first contact).
That’s a shade over three inches of room to operate. We could argue all day if that’s a running back stat (he can’t locate the holes) or an offensive line state (they can’t open up the holes), but one thing I know is that it is a running back production stat and that’s really all that matters.
In short, this profile is as straightforward as it is unappealing. If you’re in the market for a potentially below-average runner in a brutal offensive environment with an unknown role, Bigsby is your guy. If not, you have a chance at winning your matchup this week.
Tony Pollard | TEN (at IND)
Tony Pollard came into Week 15’s game with the Bengals battling an ankle injury, but Tennessee called his number in a significant way early on (five carries and a touchdown on their first six plays from scrimmage).
That’s the good. The bad was the rest of the game. He finished with 17 carries for just 45 yards and is now producing 20% under expectations over his past three games. Combine his underwhelming performances (yet to be a top-20 RB in consecutive games this season) with a mini-Tyjae Spears breakout (10 touches and two scores last week) and we could be looking at a running back that sees his production fall off a cliff at the worst time possible.
Pollard has lost two fumbles over the past three games; volume has been his calling card this season, something that is very much at risk.
I currently have Pollard on my re-draft benches and will pivot if we get positive health news.
Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at LV)
You’re lying.
If you tell me with any level of confidence that you know who is getting the ball in Jacksonville this week, you’re outright lying. In their last five games played together …
Week 9:
Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps
Week 10:
Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps
Week 13:
Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps
Week 14:
Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps
Week 15:
Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps
The Jags committed to Etienne from the jump last week (three carries and two targets on the first drive), but who is to say that we see that sustained?
The Raiders (22nd in rush defense EPA) sans Maxx Crosby and on short rest is obviously a plus spot, but the risk that comes with choosing wrong outweighs the reward in choosing right in a Mac Jones-led offense that has an implied total of 20 points this weekend.
Trey Benson | ARI (at CAR)
Trey Benson was a logical pick-and-stash option all season long, but James Conner has stayed as healthy as ever, and that has left the rookie on the bench.
Benson isn’t close to stand-alone value (no more than five carries in a game over the past month) and doesn’t need to be held if you need value out of every player. That said, if you have a loaded team and/or a bye this week, I’m very interested in adding a handcuff like this as a luxury piece at the end of your roster.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (at IND)
Tyjae Spears caught a 17-yard touchdown pass from Mason Rudolph last week, and that came after he punched in a short touchdown on the ground thanks to a very iffy pass interference call that put this team in a position to score.
Tony Pollard came into the week with a bulky ankle, but all reporting out of Tennessee seems to suggest that the 55/45 snap share edge with which Spears finished last week was more earned than injury-related.
Spears hasn’t gotten the chance to shine consistently on the NFL stage, but the returns in his limited usage through two seasons have been encouraging (78.4% catch rate and 5.2 yards per touch).
I want more news on Pollard’s ankle before labeling Spears as a Flex option for Week 16, but considering that the Colts are the second-best run defense by EPA, there’s a reasonably clear path for Spears to see a handful of check-down targets on Sunday.
With full-blown committees penciled in for the Jaguars, Jets, and Broncos, not to mention unappealing situations for the Giants, Raiders, and Chargers, there’s a reasonably clear path to top-30 value if we see reports suggesting that Spears could again handle half of the snaps this weekend.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs. NYG)
Kirk Cousins’ struggles have made this a chance to set up the running offense, a style of playcalling that I think we very well could see for a second consecutive week with the lowly Giants coming to town for Michael Penix Jr.’s debut
That said, Tyler Allgeier ran 12 times for 43 yards against the Raiders in that script. That’s it. He’s seen just two balls thrown his way over the past seven games; with Bijan Robinson as the featured back more often than not in scoring situations, there really isn’t much of a path for Allgeier to offer much for fantasy purposes.
I’m comfortable cutting most players without a fantasy-relevant role at this point, but Allgeier is the exception. With the Commanders and the Panthers left on the books, if you play through Week 18, I’m keeping Atlanta’s handcuff until this season concludes. I don’t think he holds stand-alone value this week or any of the next two, but he’s a Robinson rolled ankle away from being a top-15 RB for a team in the playoff mix.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at ATL)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is basically doubling Devin Singletary in snaps these days, and while he’s been able to outrun his veteran backfield mate to a degree, he’s been unable to outrun the general stench of this offensive environment.
Over the past two weeks, Tracy has fewer PPR fantasy points than was expected in Week 14 alone (cumulative: 35.3% below expectations). It’s been more than a month since his last 20-yard touch, and with touchdowns the only thing saving him recently from his inefficiency, you’re walking a thin line if you’re counting on this offense to frequent the red zone.
We are looking at more of a Flex play in Tracy these days than the RB2 we had hoped he’d be, but at least his reasonable volume should stabilize him from falling any further against the 10th-worst run defense in terms of success rate this season.
Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs. MIN)
Zach Charbonnet is the most valuable Seahawks running back for the remainder of the season.
I feel fine in saying that with my chest for two reasons — he’s been great in Kenneth Walker III’s absence over the past two weeks, and even if the presumed starter returns to action, we could be looking at something close to a split backfield.
That means that we are looking at similar values the rest of the way if Walker is back this week while Charbonnet has the potential to fill the role that has seen him rank as RB2 over the past two weeks for at least another game.
The Vikings are a top-six run defense against RBs in terms of EPA, yards per carry, and rushing touchdown rate, making this close to a no-fly zone if we get whispers of a split situation nearing kickoff. I’m comfortable in one bell-cow Seahawk back posting top-20 numbers, as I think this offense will look to minimize Geno Smith’s volume, but if we are dividing a volume-based role multiple ways, I don’t see a way in which I rank either as a must-start for Week 16.
