Week 14 is here, and if you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs, fighting for a chance to make the playoffs, or you’re already eliminated but are being a good league mate and ensuring you give it your all until the playoffs begin.
As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 14 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (vs. ATL)
Aaron Jones has put the ball on the ground in three straight games (four fumbles in all, two lost) and doesn’t have a 15-yard carry in five of his past six games. Despite Week 13’s win over the Cardinals being a one-score game for all but roughly 3.5 minutes, the Vikings opted to put their fate in the hands of Sam Darnold (31 pass attempts) instead of their running backs (11 rush attempts), something that could be mirrored this week.
Through 13 weeks, the Falcons own the second-lowest opponent RB rushing touchdown rate, a strength that makes starting Jones a bit of an uphill battle, given that his ypc after contact is pacing for his lowest since 2018 and his PPR points per touch for a career-low (0.8).
I’m pessimistic about Jones’ outlook, but with the lead role and a level of versatility (3+ targets in four of his past five games), there’s enough of a floor here to plug him in as a low-end RB2 in a week with relatively few options due to injuries and bye weeks.
You’re playing him, but I wouldn’t count on an overly impactful afternoon.
Alexander Mattison | LV (vs.TB)
An ankle injury sidelined Alexander Mattison last week, and given Ameer Abdullah’s success in the passing game, I don’t think there’s a path to him getting even remotely close to my starting tier of Flex options this week against a stingy Buccaneers defense.
Or … really against any defense.
Mattison is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season and hasn’t had a 15-yard run since September. A plodding back like this needs to carry significant scoring equity to have our attention, and that’s not the case as a part of the 26th-ranked scoring offense.
Alvin Kamara | NO (at NYG)
Not a single one of Alvin Kamara’s 206 carries this season has gained 25 yards, and he hasn’t scored since mid-October. Yet, the volume and versatility are nothing short of elite, which has made this run of floor outcomes digestible.
Kamara enters this week with four straight 20-touch games and has eight games this season with at least six targets — the same number as DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Cooper Kupp. Few players can overcome ordinary efficiency at this level, so while Kamara might not be the most exciting player out there, you’re rarely losing a week because you trusted him as your RB2.
The Giants are the best matchup he can face in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs (only New Orleans’ defense is worse this season), and three of the four instances in which an RB has scored 19 PPR points against New York have come in the past three games (Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, and Rico Dowdle).
With the Commanders, Packers, and Raiders on tap after this, Kamara could bookend this season with spike stretches, something his fantasy managers would embrace with open arms. I’ve been lower than the industry on Kamara for the majority of this season, but even I have him labeled as an RB1 the rest of the way.
Ameer Abdullah | LV (vs.TB)
Only time will tell if reinforcements are on the way when it comes to Vegas’ backfield, but should it matter? I was impressed with the Raiders’ rushing success in Kansas City on Friday (25 attempts for 116 yards, 4.6 yards per carry) — I don’t think that’s a hot take.
That said, with their top two backs out, they still opted for a committee structure, giving Sincere McCormick 12 carries (two targets) and Ameer Abdullah 10 carries (two targets). With this season lost, why wouldn’t the Raiders continue to see what they have from McCormick, a second-year back out of UTSA who had five career carries before last week?
Abdullah remains my highest-ranked RB in Las Vegas’ backfield, and I think his versatility gives him some ceiling potential should the Raiders fall behind. But if Alexander Mattison and/or Zamir White are active, we are splitting a very small pie in a few directions.
I don’t mind rostering all involved parties, but I don’t envision a situation in which we have great clarity when it comes to touch distribution this weekend. That has me ranking all of them below my Flex tier, even with six byes to navigate.
Abdullah would shift up to the very low end of the playable range in 12-team formats if we get word that both Mattison and White will again be shelved.
Bijan Robinson | ATL (at MIN)
Bijan Robinson opened last week with a 15-yard run on Atlanta’s first snap and, by the end of two drives, he already had 10 touches and a score on the stat sheet. He finished with a season-high 32 touches against a strong Chargers defense, recording a 10+ yard rush and catch for the fourth time in his past five games.
It’s happening.
The usage and the production. The Falcons are leaning into their game-changing talent, and Robinson has rewarded them with six top-10 finishes over his past seven games. Imagine if the passing game demands respect. Kirk Cousins has five interceptions and zero touchdown passes over Atlanta’s past two games, a pair of games in which the star running back has averaged under one yard per carry before contact in both of those contests.
There are few players I fear more in space than Robinson and Minnesota’s aggressive style of defense leaves them open to some spots where they will need to get him on the ground in space.
Good luck with that.
I’m fine with labeling Robinson as a DFS building block, especially if we see Saquon Barkley (vs. CAR) and De’Von Achane (vs. NYJ) chew up ownership among the expensive backs.
Blake Corum | LAR (vs. BUF)
The Rams had three snaps in the first quarter last week and were a bit out of sorts before finding their rhythm. It was a weird start to a game that eventually gave this team the result they needed, and it all started with Blake Corum getting Los Angeles’ first five carries.
Was this a matchup thing? Discipline?
We haven’t gotten much in the way of clarity and, to be honest, I really don’t care. Kyren Williams out-carried the rookie 15-3 after the odd start to the festivities, and that is the type of role I’m projecting forward. You better believe I’m concerned more today than I was this time last week as a Williams manager. But this isn’t a backfield that can support two backs, and we have three months of evidence that Corum is to be viewed as a handcuff, not a Robin to Williams’ Batman.
The Bills want to dare you to beat them with your running game, and if Corum is a big part of that again, we can reevaluate next week. For now, I’m opting to ignore the early Week 13 usage and have Corum outside of the Flex conversation.
Braelon Allen | NYJ (at MIA)
Braelon Allen hasn’t reached 35 scrimmage yards in a game since September and has only scored once since punching in a pair of touchdowns against the Titans back in Week 2. His short- and long-term outlooks appear to be identical at this point — as a Breece Hall handcuff.
And guess what? That role has value at the perfect time, as he projects as a RB2 under the assumption that Hall (knee, no practice participation this week) sits on Sunday. He faces the same limitations that Hall did situationally, but he walks into 15+ touches with fresh legs and that makes him a worthwhile plug-and-play this week and, potentially, for the rest of the fantasy season if Gang Green opts to shut down Hall for the remainder of this lost year
Breece Hall | NYJ (at MIA)
There’s really no way around it — this hasn’t been the type of season you signed up for this summer when you spent a first-round pick on Breece Hall. He put the ball on the ground twice last week against the Seahawks (lost one) and, for the first time in over 14 months, went through an entire game without a reception.
Looking back, all could have been forgiven if he was given a carry inside the five-yard line in the first quarter, but no, that usage was obviously reserved for Isaiah Davis and the seventh snap of his career. Davis cashes in the opportunity, and Hall came on to convert the two-pointer, a sequence that was pretty indicative of the season for Hall’s managers.
So close — and yet so far.
Josh Jacobs was able to produce against these Dolphins on Thursday night (the first RB to reach 20 PPR points against them since September), but Miami’s defensive profile remains strong. Through 13 weeks, the ‘Fins cough up the sixth-fewest red-zone drives per game (2.8) and are the stingiest defense in the league when it comes to limiting running back carries after contact.
When healthy, you’re playing Hall; you have no choice. He remains just as talented as the back you drafted months ago, but with the combination of this underwhelming offensive environment and a harder-than-average matchup, Hall was sitting outside of my top-10 prior to him being slapped with the “doubtful” tag on Friday (knee).
I want to say you’ll have him back next week, but with this a lost season and New York looking ahead, there’s no reason to assume they are aggressive with their star RB’s recovery.
Bucky Irving | TB (vs. LV)
There is nothing flash-in-the-pan-ish about what Bucky Irving is doing. Amid a breakout, Irving is still only playing roughly half of the snaps, and it simply doesn’t matter. Over his past three games, the rookie is averaging 24.1 PPR PPG, producing 45.6% over expectations, and looking every bit the part of those impressive numbers.
In those games, Irving is averaging five yards per carry after first contact, giving this offense a component that they’ve been lacking during the Rachaad White era. The Raiders allow the second most red-zone trips per game (3.9) this season, giving me confidence that we are looking at a low-end RB1 this week … and potentially for the remainder of the season.
Flex PPR leaders, Weeks 12-13
- Saquon Barkley: 65.9 PPR points
- Irving: 54.7 PPR points
- DJ Moore: 50.6 PPR points
- Josh Jacobs: 50.3 PPR points
- Terry McLaurin: 48.5 PPR points
Through October, Irving had one game with more than 10 rush attempts. If you stayed loyal during the low-usage start to open the season, you deserve to be paid the way this is lining up — go get a title!
Cam Akers | MIN (vs. ATL)
Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case, and that’s where we stand right now.
Chase Brown | CIN (at DAL)
Forget the player. If you were to create a situation for a fantasy running back, how different would it look from what Chase Brown currently has in front of him?
- A porous defense that gives the offense motivation to stay on the field
- A potent passing game that makes loading the box nearly impossible
- No challengers for work in his backfield and a reasonably stationary QB
That’s about as good as it gets, and that’s how we get a drive like Cincinnati’s second one last week against the Steelers.
- Brown off right guard for 13 yards
- Brown off right guard for 41 yards
- Brown up the middle for one yard and a TD
He’s finished each of his past four games as an RB1, and it’s hard to see that changing significantly this week against the worst red-zone defense in all the land (76.9% touchdown rate). For good measure, the Cowboys also have the third-worst overall rush defense by EPA and allow rushing scores to RBs at the highest rate.
It’s the perfect spot for the perfect role. Brown finds himself in some lofty company well inside of my top 10 at the position this week — you’re playing him and loving it.
Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs. CHI)
Christian McCaffrey suffered a PCL injury in the second quarter on Sunday night and will miss at least the next six weeks, meaning his 2024 fantasy season is over before it ever really got started.
We have nine months to debate about how much this injury hurts his 2025 value — he’ll be an interesting case given the wide range of outcomes. It’s safe to say that he won’t be labeled the consensus 1.01 in redraft leagues the way he was this summer as he prepares for his age-29 season coming off of his fourth season in which he missed the majority of his games.
It’ll hurt your soul, but you can safely drop CMC in redraft leagues. Keeper managers need to track his recovery process; early reports are that he should be fine heading into the offseason, though you can never take anything for granted, especially at the running back position for a player with over 2,000 touches on his NFL résumé.
Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at PHI)
Chuba Hubbard finally fell flat. It finally happened. He was on the field plenty (at least a 78% snap share in four straight games), but his 12 touches carried very little value (5.9 expected PPR points). For just the third time this season, Hubbard didn’t see a target, and his single red-zone touch tanked his potential (16 red-zone touches over his three games prior).
He finished a brutal day with a crippling fumble in overtime while in field goal range. I’m willing to overlook this dud, but I’m not sure the trains get back on the tracks against a peaking Eagles defense that just forced Derrick Henry into his second-lowest boom/bust rate of the season.
For the season, Philadelphia surrenders RB rushing scores at the third-lowest rate. With the second-best third-down unit in the league, are we sure that Carolina holds the ball for more than 25 minutes in this one? Jonathan Brooks (six carries for 18 yards) did nothing on Sunday to make Hubbard’s managers nervous.
I think you’ll be OK during the fantasy playoffs, but asking him to produce top-15 numbers against a defense that has yet to allow 18 fantasy points to a running back this season is a lot.
D’Andre Swift | CHI (at SF)
While the volume on the ground has been underwhelming of late for D’Andre Swift (consecutive weeks of a decline in carry count and under 15 in three straight), the combination of involvement in the passing game along with the spike plays has proven to be enough to keep in fantasy lineups.
Swift has earned nine targets in those three games and has a 29+ yard gain in that run of three straight against divisional opponents.
There’s only so much upside that comes with being tethered to this inconsistent offense, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. However, with a bell-cow role between the 20s and a versatile skill set, Swift is a weekly starter for you, even if the odds of him taking over your matchup are low.
Devin Singletary | NYG (vs. NO)
Devin Singletary had a garbage-time rushing touchdown in Week 12 against the Buccaneers, and that’s his only contribution to our world since September. The backup RB doesn’t have a 10-touch game since Week 4 as he has settled well behind Tyrone Tracy Jr. in this backfield; without a touch gaining more than 15 yards in over two months, there’s no path to upside in this profile.
Singletary is the handcuff to Tracy, but my optimal roster construction doesn’t involve a backup from a bottom-five offense with nothing in the way of stability. I’d prefer a dart throw receiver (Parker Washington, Michael Wilson, etc.) or take a flier on a backfield with more support (Isaac Guerendo, Kimani Vidal, Trey Benson, etc.).
De’Von Achane | MIA (vs. NYJ)
De’Von Achane couldn’t find any running room on Thanksgiving night against the Packers in a one-sided loss (seven carries for 14 yards with a season-high 57.1% of his attempts failing to gain yardage), but that doesn’t prevent elite fantasy assets from paying the bills. That is exactly what the Dolphins have in their backfield.
The second-year star hauled in eight of his season-high nine targets for 56 yards and his fifth touchdown reception in six games since Tua Tagovailoa returned. He’s caught 28 of 30 targets over his past five contests, and with 13 red-zone touches over his past three games, this profile is about as bulletproof as it gets.
We are talking about a player that will go in the first half of first rounds for 2025 and one that looks poised to give you all the production you need to make a deep postseason run.
Ezekiel Elliott | DAL (vs. CIN)
Ezekiel Elliott’s name holds value, but his role and form simply do not. Rico Dowdle has been labeled as the bell cow in Dallas, a role that he’s not in any danger of losing.
If Zeke was getting every non-Dowdle carry, we might be able to squint and justify rostering the veteran, but that’s not even close to the case — he got one of the 10 rush attempts that didn’t go to the starter (Hunter Luepke had three).
You’re not optimizing your roster if Elliott is still kicking around the back end of it.
Gus Edwards | LAC (at KC)
Sans J.K. Dobbins (knee, IR), Gus Edwards got the first Charger carry on Sunday in Atlanta. Hassan Haskins was given the next one, and that told me all I needed to know about Jim Harbaugh’s plan — read and react.
That’s certainly not optimal for our purposes. It helped add some clarity when Haskins put the ball on the turf, but I’m not at all confident that this running game can support a single player, let alone a committee situation.
Chargers RB snap shares, Week 13:
- Edwards: 52.2% (4.3 PPR points)
- Scott Matlock: 32.6% (1.2 PPR points)
- Kimani Vidal: 26.1% (2 PPR points)
- Hassan Haskins: 15.2% (-2 PPR points)
I was out on Dobbins as the head of this snake, and now I’m done with this backfield altogether. Edwards and Vidal deserve to be rostered due to their proximity to a role in an offense that I grade as above average the rest of the way, but without clarity, there’s no path to feeling good about this situation.
I’m aware that the Chiefs gave up 116 yards on 25 carries to the Raiders on Black Friday, a running attack led by the much-feared duo of Sincere McCormick and Ameer Abdullah. Sixty iffy minutes aren’t enough to change my opinion — Kansas City has the third-best defensive success rate against the run and has allowed running backs to pick up a league-low 3.3 yards per carry.
I have Edwards ranked ahead of Vidal this week, but not by much and not in a spot where I’m Flexing him with confidence.
Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. LAC)
Isiah Pacheco (fractured fibula) saw his first action since Week 2 and was eased into things as expected.
Chiefs RB snap shares, Week 13:
- Kareem Hunt: 40.3% (second half: 34.4%)
- Pacheco: 32.8% (second half: 40.6%)
- Samaje Perine: 26.9% (second half: 25%)
- Carson Steele: 4.5% (second half: 6.3%)
Fantasy managers obviously love to see their star back on the field. We even got a chunk play from him as he ripped off a 34-yard run that seemed to remind the internet of just how fun this back is to watch carry the rock.
While Week 13 was a step in the right direction, there are rust and workload concerns that are preventing me from ranking him as a must-start player this week. With six teams on a bye, he’s viable, but if your team is built in such a way that you aren’t in bad shape this week, I could see a world in which you’re taking the Kansas City approach and being patient.
Against the Raiders, his other seven touches picked up just 15 yards, and for the afternoon, he averaged 1.86 yards per carry after contact (at least 3.0 yards per carry after contact in each of his first two seasons).
In the first meeting with the Chargers this season, Kansas City running backs failed to record a rush gaining more than 10 yards, and in one game a season ago, Pacheco managed just 32 yards on 13 attempts in this spot (he did catch a touchdown pass as part of a Patrick Mahomes explosion). He’s my top-ranked Chief running back this week and moving forward, but I’m in no rush to jam him into lineups this weekend.
Isaac Guerendo | SF (vs. CHI)
The hot waiver add of the week could be a league winner if the 49ers elect to commit to him. Isaac Guerendo scored from 15 yards out last week and now assumes an elite role with the two backs ahead of him now on injured reserve.
Why can’t he be Jordan Mason? Mason was a top-12 running back three times in September and, before his injury, was one of two healthy backs (minimum 100 rush attempts) picking up 10+ yards on 15% of his carries this season (other: Jahmyr Gibbs). He’s a good player, but that production was certainly impacted by an advantageous situation, a situation that is now Guerendo’s.
The Bears allow the sixth-most red-zone drives per game (3.7) and the fourth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs. I don’t want to get too aggressive with my projection because we don’t have a sample of what this offense will look like, but 15 touches seem like a floor, and that’s plenty in a Kyle Shanahan offense.
James Conner | ARI (v. SEA)
The Seahawks, for the season, give up the fifth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs (4.9), but they’ve looked better of late. Two weeks ago, they held James Conner to eight yards on seven carries, and over the weekend, Breece Hall scored just six fantasy points (17.8% below his usage-based expectations).
No matter what you think about this Arizona offense, Conner’s role is simply too strong to ignore. He has at least 17 carries in four of his past six games and at least three grabs in four straight.
The fact that he doesn’t have a rush gaining more than 22 yards this entire season is annoying, but it’s not overly prohibitive given the sheer number of opportunities he gets on a weekly basis.
James Cook | BUF (at LAR)
James Cook went dashing through the snow on Sunday night for a 65-yard touchdown (the longest play of his career) against the 49ers on his way to his fourth RB1 finish over his past five games. Josh Allen is playing like an MVP, and Ray Davis has looked good, yet nothing is standing in the way of Cook producing elite numbers.
Teams are loading up to stop the run against Buffalo, and it doesn’t really matter. Cook has run into a loaded box 49.7% of the time this season (2023: 24.9%); despite the chaos in front of him, his yards per carry after contact this season are up 15.9% from a season ago.
All signs are pointing in the right direction, and the fifth-worst rush defense by EPA is unlikely to slow that momentum. Cook has 11 rushing scores on 151 carries this season — not too shabby for a player who had four on 326 attempts through the first two years of his career.
Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs. CLE)
That’s now three straight games with four targets for Jaylen Warren, a total he didn’t reach a single time previously. He was on the field for just 37.9% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps on Sunday, something that may have been impacted by the game script. When the Browns beat the Steelers in Week 12, Warren posted his highest snap share of the season (56.7%) and got 14 touches as a result.
Last week served as a reminder as to why I’m not comfortable in Flexing Warren. Najee Harris was banged up early and was on the sideline for a bit, something that you’d expect to open the door for Warren.
Not so much.
His 29-yard grab late in the second quarter was his only opportunity (rush attempts plus targets) in the first half. Mike Tomlin is the master of maximizing his teams, and he clearly hasn’t deemed getting Warren consistent looks as a priority.
We know that Warren will be on the field, and given the type of game both of these teams just played, this game has shootout potential. That profile makes him a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency Flex option, though you have to be aware that a single-digit PPR performance is more likely than not.
Jaylen Wright | MIA (vs. NYJ)
Jaylen Wright continues to hold more upside, in my opinion, than Raheem Mostert, should De’Von Achane suffer an injury. However, his one offensive snap on Thanksgiving is proof positive that the team has no desire of getting him work this season.
With Miami clinging to its playoff hopes, I don’t see it all of a sudden changing course. With six teams on a bye this week, it’s possible that you’re in a roster crunch; if that’s the case, you can cut ties with the explosive rookie.
Jerome Ford, CLE (at PIT)
Jerome Ford reached 10 touches on Monday night, something he hadn’t done in nearly two months. The Browns seemed to take an awfully cautious approach with Nick Chubb last week (they haven’t mentioned a health-based reason for that approach), and that allowed Ford to elevate his role from backup to part of a committee.
Wonderful.
This backfield is struggling to give us one weekly viable option, and if this divvying of responsibilities is here to stay, there won’t be a single Browns RB worthy of Flex consideration. With this being a lost season, I think it’s logical to manage Chubb’s reps, especially if this team is going to fully embrace the Jameis Winston experience. You’re holding Ford right now and hoping that he posts another 65.5% snap share rate (36.4% in the snow against these Steelers in Week 12).
If he can flirt with two-thirds of the snaps in an offense that is, for better or worse, going to push the envelope, there’s a world in which you’re considering him as a Flex play with your league championship on the line.
- Week 16 at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 17 vs. Miami Dolphins
J.K. Dobbins | LAC (at KC)
We knew the risk was there in a profile like this, but it’s still a shame to see J.K. Dobbins (knee) being placed on injured reserve last Saturday. This designation requires him to miss at least four games, making a Week 17 return (at Patriots) the next time we have a chance to see Dobbins, the fantasy Super Bowl in most leagues.
I’m moving on. The Chargers want to make noise in the postseason and they need to win games down the stretch, but I can’t imagine they rush this injury-prone back at such a level that he is fantasy viable with a title on the line in a game that will carry some weather risk.
The 900 yards and eight touchdowns you’ve squeezed out of Dobbins this week have been helpful — you can cut ties now if you don’t have the luxury of an available IR slot. This is a player who has appeared in 35 games during five NFL seasons — asking him to produce top-24 numbers IF he returns when first eligible is far too optimistic for my liking.
Jonathon Brooks | CAR (at PHI)
Jonathon Brooks played 8.6% of the snaps in his professional debut (Chuba Hubbard: 87.9%), picking up seven yards on his two carries against the Chiefs. I expect the team to slowly ramp up his usage to give him a taste of the NFL game, but I’d be surprised if he got much past 10 touches in any game this season. That means he’s unlikely to grace my top 30 at any point.
If he’s going to impact fantasy leagues this season, it’s because he cashes in a red-zone carry and the manager with Chuba Hubbard falls out of the playoffs as a result of the missed opportunity. Brooks is an interesting name to keep track of for next season — I’m holding for this week to see what the team does with his usage and cutting ties if we don’t see some serious growth.
Jordan Mason | SF (vs. CHI)
Jordan Mason was placed on injured reserve Monday afternoon, a move that corresponded with Christian McCaffrey’s designation. With the 49ers’ season very much on the brink, it’s more likely than not that his season is over — at the very least, his fantasy season is over, as he is now required to miss the final four weeks of the fantasy season.
The 2024 season has to be labeled as a success for the 25-year-old undrafted back out of Georgia Tech (5.2 yards per carry), as he showed himself capable of leading a backfield. Time will tell what the hierarchy of this backfield looks like moving forward, but for the remainder of 2024, this is the Isaac Guerendo show.
Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. LAC)
Kareem Hunt was on the field for 40.3% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps on Friday against the Raiders, his lowest rate since joining the team and a clear sign that the plan is to work Isiah Pacheco back into a bell-cow role sooner rather than later.
Even in a limited role, the veteran back saw four targets, leaving me with some hope that he can be Jaylen Warren to Pacheco’s Najee Harris over the final month of the season. At the very least, we know that Hunt is the handcuff to have; that knowledge makes him worthy of a roster spot as the Chiefs look to lockdown the AFC’s top seed over the next month.
I’m not comfortable playing Hunt this week and think that, after a mini-bye, we will get a pretty good glimpse of how Andy Reid wants this backfield to look for the remainder of the season on Sunday.
Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at ARI)
Kenneth Walker III hasn’t finished better than RB15 since Week 7, and his first meeting with these Cardinals was underwhelming when it comes to his rushing numbers (16 carries for 41 yards).
In that Week 12 game, Walker bailed out fantasy managers with 52 yards on six targets, a role that was stable earlier this year. However, since Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout, those opportunities have been less consistent (in the two weeks sandwiching that Arizona game, Walker turned five targets into two receiving yards).
At the end of the day, Walker is the featured back of an offense I expect to stay on the field this week against the second-worst third-down defense in the league. That’s enough to feel fine about him as an RB2, but I had his ceiling case as a top-five producer at the position on a weekly basis earlier in this season — I no longer have optimism at that level.
Khalil Herbert | CIN (at DAL)
Khalil Herbert, for me, isn’t in the same tier as a Ray Davis or Tyler Allgeier handcuff, and thus he can be cut loose as the value of every single roster spot increases down the stretch.
Chase Brown is being used as a true bell cow, and while Herbert is technically the next man up, his playing just 3.9% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps since being acquired indicates that even should an injury occur, this team isn’t ready to unleash the former Bear.
Instead of hanging onto Herbert, I’d rather roster a boom/bust receiver that has access to a weekly ceiling and can thus help me out if I’m in desperation mode.
Kimani Vidal | LAC (at KC)
Kimani Vidal is a great oyster stash with J.K. Dobbins on the shelf and Gus Edwards yet to impress. The rookie was on the field for only 26.1% of snaps last week, and while that number by itself isn’t impressive, the fact that he was given the first carry of the second half should have your interest.
I find it unlikely that you ever feel great about Flexing Vidal, but the willingness to call his number out of the locker room tells me that Jim Harbaugh is trending toward a hot-hand backfield. Of course, we lack evidence that Vidal can outearn Edwards over the course of a game, but we know what Edwards does/doesn’t bring to the table, and I’m confident that his limitations at least give the rook a chance to produce.
I’m rostering with patience. There aren’t many backfields as up in the air as this one, and that makes all pieces involved reasonable stashes.
Kyren Williams | LAR (vs. BUF)
Kyren Williams ran for a season-high 104 yards against the Saints on Sunday and ran for his 10th score, but the passing game involvement has evaporated (one target over the past three weeks) and the splash plays are non-existent (zero gains of over 30 yards on his 248 touches this season).
I’m willing to overlook the early usage of Blake Corum last week (by “overlook,” I mean “not adjust my Week 14 rankings” — I’m very much going to be tracking usage patterns this weekend) and am cautiously hopeful that Williams can showcase improved efficiency in this matchup against a defense that allows the fifth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs.
Buffalo is willing to give up production on the ground, as they will bet on their efficiency over yours so long as they can limit the number of splash plays. We know we are going to get 15-20 touches from Williams — the difference between him finishing as the RB7 and RB17 is in him finding the end zone against the fifth-best defense in terms of rushing TD rate allowed to opposing running backs.
It’s Cooper Kupp or nothing for me when it comes to the Rams for the Week 14 DFS main slate.
Najee Harris | PIT (vs. CLE)
Early last week in Cincinnati, it looked as if we were approaching a huge day for Najee Harris, and that was glorious. On Pittsburgh’s first drive, their starting running back was trusted with six touches (50% target share) and turned them into 51 yards.
He got dinged up early and spent some time sidelined, but at the end of the day, 22 touches for 129 yards and a score is plenty profitable. Of course, you don’t get to face the Bengals every week, but the state of Ohio struggles to stop the run these days (you can decide if that is this Penn State alum taking a shot at the Buckeyes coughing up 173 yards on the ground to Michigan over the weekend).
This season, the Browns allow rushing touchdowns to running backs at the sixth-highest rate in the league and the most yards per short completion. Harris is a firm RB2 for me this weekend and should help you earn an important win — enjoy it, it could be a bumpy ride to the finish line.
- Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Nick Chubb | CLE (at PIT)
Nick Chubb was able to get home for you last week if you elected to go that direction on Monday night courtesy of a five-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter, but I’d be lying if I said I was the least bit encouraged by the performance.
The Browns opted to go with Jerome Ford for extended periods of time against the Broncos, and I can’t say that I blame them. Not only did Ford run reasonably well (nine carries for 41 yards with a 21-yard reception on his lone target), but Chubb failed to get past the line of scrimmage on four of his nine rush attempts. That raised his season rate to 28%, a number that is far too high in any situation, let alone within a profile that doesn’t include much per-carry upside (10+ yards on just four of his 82 carries).
Now, there are reasons for that. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is coming off of a devastating knee injury and has had a brutal runout in terms of schedule. Logic would state that he gets better with time — I’m willing to buy that pitch. But the schedule doesn’t lighten this week (he ran 20 times for 59 yards with a long gain of seven yards in this matchup two weeks ago), and for the second time in three weeks, he’s being asked to play on short rest.
The Steelers allow rushing touchdowns to running backs at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and that’s enough for Chubb to rank over Ford for me this week, but that doesn’t land him in my must-start tier. I have him sitting in the same tier as Kareem Hunt, Jaylen Warren, and both Jacksonville running backs — all of whom come with limitations and all of whom I’d play a receiver with upside over (Jerry Jeudy, Brian Thomas Jr., etc.).
Rachaad White | TB (vs. LV)
Rachaad White sprung free for a 38-yard rush late in overtime last week to get the Bucs in position to kick the game-winning field goal, doubling his rushing output for the day in the process.
I can’t remember the last time a running back has ranked as an RB1 for an extended period of time that I’m actively fading at an important time at the level I am White. Since Week 7, he’s been the RB12 (16.1 PPG), but this is an awfully iffy profile as long as Bucky Irving’s hip injury doesn’t prove prohibitive.
Pass catching is White’s calling card, and yet he has just two targets over the past two games. He snapped a five-game scoring streak in Week 13, a run that came on unsustainable efficiency (one score every 10.3 touches; career average: 36.5). By every measure, Irving is the more productive option in this backfield and has the potential to relegate White to a specialist role that offers spotty production at best.
With six teams on a bye, I can only tank him so far down the rankings, but I want it noted that he’s producing over his head; if you buy in, you’re at risk of the rug being pulled out from under you (starting next week in Los Angeles against the Chargers).
Raheem Mostert | MIA (vs. NYJ)
Raheem Mostert has reached a 47% snap share just once this season (Week 13: 36.9%) and simply seems like an afterthought in this offense. Of course, he did enough on Thanksgiving to ruin my SGP that featured him rushing for under 9.5 yards (five carries for 19 yards), but this isn’t a profile that means anything for fantasy.
If you want exposure to a secondary back in Miami, it’s Jaylen Wright — and it’s not close. This is a one-back system that requires no weekly decision making — you’re riding De’Von Achane as far as you can and neglecting the other two.
Ray Davis | BUF (at LAR)
Ray Davis scored on the second drive in a blizzard against the 49ers on Sunday night, more the result of limited defensive footing than anything. He did set up the score with a 13-yard run, and he continues to run hard, though I’m not sure it matters.
There were four Bills with a carry on that touchdown drive as they were acclimating to the conditions and imposing their will.
First two Bills drives, Week 13:
- James Cook: four carries for three yards
- Davis: three carries for 19 yards and a TD
- Ty Johnson: two carries for 12 yards
- Josh Allen: two carries for 10 yards
For Davis’ path to hold stand-alone value, he needs to do more than impress. He would need some help from James Cook (it didn’t happen last week: 14 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown) and hold off Josh Allen’s desire to finish drives himself.
Davis is a strong handcuff and has been impressive, but I still can’t get there when it comes to ranking him as a viable Flex option. He ranks at the top of my backup RBs, both in terms of value to be gained by way of injury and Week 14 projections, but that isn’t enough to get him inside of my top 30 at the position (for reference, I prefer the Jayeln Warren and Kareem Hunts of the world over him in you’re in a bind).
Rico Dowdle | DAL (vs. CIN)
Rico Dowdle has been given the keys to this backfield, and it looks good on him. He’s averaged north of 3.0 yards per carry after first contact in five straight games. He seems to be a good player and will be an interesting follow this summer as he becomes an unrestricted free agent entering his age-27 season.
For the short term, I think you can feel good about him as a RB2. Dallas’ best defense against Cincinnati will be a patient offense, something that they proved capable of doing in a Dowdle-centric way on Thanksgiving against the Giants (22 carries for 112 yards and a score, he was the only Cowboy with even five rushing yards). He’s run at least 20 routes in two of three games and, for the season, has produced 10.1% over expectation when being handed the ball at least 15 times.
There’s not a lot to like in Dallas these days, but at least its running game has found a consistent option.
Roschon Johnson | CHI (at SF)
The Bears didn’t get stopped at the one-yard, and that meant that Roschon Johnson was rendered useless.
OK, so that’s only partly true. He left early on Thursday with a concussion and that puts his status in question for this week, though the mini-bye gives him a better shot at clearing protocol.
It doesn’t matter.
The six rushing scores are nice from a profile perspective, but you’re not playing a 4-6 touch player in a below-average offense if you can at all avoid it. Personally, I’m targeting players with more upside to round out my roster, no matter the format.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. CAR)
With just 44 rushing yards through three quarters last week against the Ravens, Saquon Barkley was at risk of underachieving for just the third time this season.
What a crazy thought.
He ran for 63 yards over the final 15 minutes, helping the Eagles earn a massive win in the process. The Panthers allow the fifth-most yards per carry this season (third-most before contact), making them vulnerable to a highlight-reel splash play from the Offensive Player of the Year front-runner.
It’ll be interesting to see how Barkley is treated in drafts this summer — he’s the best option at the position this week and for the remainder of the 2024 fantasy season.
Tank Bigsby | JAX (at TEN)
Tank Bigsby trailed Travis Etienne Jr. in snap share last week, but it was pretty clearly a split situation that has the potential to flip on a dime.
Jaguars RBs production rates, Week 13:
- Etienne: 19.4% under expectation and 1.7 yards per carry after contact
- Bigsby: 5.9% under expectation and 3.6 yards per carry after contact
Bigsby has been the more efficient player for the majority of this season, and that gives me hope that he will be the one who gets his name called in scoring position against the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the league.
Like Etienne, Bigsby is a viable Flex play that carries less risk than normal given the projected game script.
Tony Pollard | TEN (vs. JAX)
Tony Pollard lost a fumble last week, his first of the season, but he remained involved after that even with Tyjae Spears back in the mix.
It hasn’t been pretty, but the Titans’ lead back has multiple catches in every game this season and is averaging 27.3 touches per game in victories this season. Whether you like Tennessee or Jacksonville in this game, it should be competitive, and that puts Pollard in a position to rack up the type of volume that gives him top-10 potential against a bottom-five defense in terms of red-zone drives and yards per short pass attempt conceded.
I want exposure to any back who projects for 15+ touches against the Jaguars, and that is the case here. Pollard is my RB16 for Week 14.
Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at TEN)
There are some split backfields, and then there is what the Jaguars are rolling out there. Travis Etienne Jr. got the first carry for this offense last week against the Texans, and that’s good to see, but his role was far from elite.
Jaguars RBs opportunity and production, Week 13:
- Etienne: 52.2% snap share; 5+ yards on 46.2% of rushes
- Tank Bigsby: 46.3% snap share; 5+ yards on 28.6% of rushes
He showed some juice that has been lacking, but don’t let my number voodoo fool you — the rate of five-yard gains is nice to see though not a single one of his carries gained more than nine yards. The Titans struggled last week against Washington, but this is still the third-best defense at limiting RB yardage after contact this season.
Based on how last week started, I think the Jags have Etienne just over Bigsby in their internal depth chart; that’s how I have it ranked, though both share a tier in the middle of my Flex rankings.
Trey Benson | ARI (vs. SEA)
On one hand, Trey Benson was trusted with a third-down carry on Arizona’s first drive last week and converted. That indicates to me that the team trusts its talented rookie, and that’s a nice thing to see, but that feels an awful lot like a company paying an employee in compliments.
Yeah, it’s good for morale, but it doesn’t really make a tangible difference.
Benson has seen his snap share decline in three straight games, and Emari Demercado was actually on the field more often against the Vikings (26% snap share to 15.6%). The Seahawks allow the fourth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs this season.
I think this running game has success, I just don’t think the pie is big enough for Benson to work his way onto the Flex conversation just yet.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs. JAX)
Tyjae Spears returned from a one-game absence and posted his lowest snap share for a game in which he didn’t exit early (26%). He got his hands on the ball just one time against the Commanders (a three-yard rush), and while I expect his usage to trend closer to where it was earlier this season, we are still talking about a running back who has one game with more than 10 touches this season.
This is the Tony Pollard show, and that’s not going to change down the stretch this season. Spears is a poor man’s version of Jaylen Warren; considering that the real version of Warren is on the outskirts of Flex value, color me pessimistic that Tennessee’s RB2 will grace my top 30 at any point moving forward.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at MIN)
Last week against the Chargers is basically spot-on with what we are expecting from Tyler Allgeier these days. He was on the field for 31.2% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in the loss, not drastically different than his season rate (27.2%), and he got his hands on the ball nine times.
He did virtually nothing with his chances on Sunday (22 yards), and that is why he’s struggled to hold stand-alone value when playing alongside Bijan Robinson. The versatility in his profile has dried up (37 carries against two targets over his past five games), and that makes him an awfully tough sell, even in deeper formats.
When looking at the Kirk Cousins Bowl this week, the outlook doesn’t paint an optimistic picture. Through 13 weeks, the Vikings are one of four defenses allowing under four yards per carry to running backs, making a repeat of Week 12 very possible. If you’re playing Allgeier, you’re assuming a lot of risk with little payoff — that’s not exactly the type of player I make a habit of rostering, let alone playing.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs. NO)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has shown plenty of promise during his rookie season and figures to be a fantasy starter in both the short and long term. He scored against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now has a rushing touchdown or at least three catches in six of his past seven games.
I think we’ve seen enough to trust the rushing profile (5.0 yards per carry this season), so his rattling off catches for 15 and 18 yards on Thursday was encouraging. Drew Lock ate into his upside on the ground last week (57 yards and a score), though I’m not too worried about that sustaining.
The limitations of this offense are clear (13.4 points per game during the current seven-game skid), and while that will likely prevent any spike weeks, the floor that comes with this role alone is enough to keep Tracy in lineups in most situations.
Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at ARI)
I found it interesting that the Seahawks gave Zach Charbonnet a goal-line carry in the fourth quarter to give them the lead over the Jets on Sunday. In all, it was his fifth straight game with no more than six touches, a role that keeps him well out of Flex discussions in all leagues.
Charbonnet was on the field for 43.9% of snaps in Week 13 and has multiple receptions in four of his past five games – I’m monitoring. Kenneth Walker has underwhelmed over the past 1.5 months (under 4.0 yards per carry in five straight games), and while I’m not suggesting that we see a changing of the guard, I’m not as confident in the hierarchy of this backfield as I was a few short weeks ago.
The Cardinals allow the seventh-most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season — if Charbonnet makes a move for the lead role, this might be the week. I’m not betting on that being the case, but I’m certainly keeping a close eye on this situation, both in leagues where I have Walker and Charbonnet.