Week 13 is here, and if you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs, fighting for a chance to make the playoffs, or you’re already eliminated but are being a good league mate and ensuring you give it your all until the playoffs begin.
As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 13 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (vs. ARI)
Aaron Jones had himself an up-and-down Week 12 in Chicago, but he finished with 129 yards and a score, a level of production we will take every single time.
Jones lost a goal-line fumble on the first drive, but the team didn’t blink and continued to bank on him as their bellcow. He rewarded them with a 41-yard run later in the first half and, when all was said and done, his third RB1 finish of the season.
I still think Cam Akers is a handcuff back work rostering, but this isn’t a committee, and the safe volume is going to land Jones inside of my top 20 every week moving forward. The Cardinals are allowing points on 43.7% of opponent drives this season (seventh-worst) and the Vikings project to be dictating the tempo in this spot.
Alexander Mattison | LV (at KC)
An ankle injury sidelined Alexander Mattison last week, and given Ameer Abdullah’s success in the passing game, I don’t think there’s a path to him getting even remotely close to my starting tier of Flex options this week against a stingy Chiefs defense.
Or … really against any defense.
Mattison is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season and hasn’t had a 15-yard run since September. A plodding back like this needs to carry significant scoring equity to have our attention, and that’s not the case as a part of the 26th-ranked scoring offense.
Alvin Kamara | NO (vs. LAR)
Alvin Kamara has been among the most consistent performers in our game this season (top-20 back in nine of 11 games, including each of his past four), and it seems that run of production coming off of his bye is slowed by the defense that allows the sixth most points per drive to opposing offenses.
Am I in love with his profile? I’m not. Kamara’s fantasy point total has been below expectations in eight of his past nine, and he doesn’t have a 25-yard rush this season (183 attempts), but the versatility (eight straight games with at least four receptions) and volume mask those concerns.
If you want to use the limited ceiling potential that comes with efficiency as a reason to look elsewhere when constructing your main-slate DFS roster, go for it. When it comes to season-long, you’re playing Kamara without a second thought.
Ameer Abdullah | LV (at KC)
Zamir White (quad) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) sat out last week against the Broncos, and Ameer Abdullah took full advantage with 65 yards, five receptions, and a touchdown. The role in the passing game is his path to value, and I think it is reasonably sustainable, but only if the two backs ahead of him are again sidelined.
For his career, Abdullah is averaging 4.0 yards per carry with just seven scores on 453 attempts. His ability to pick up cheap points in the passing game holds value in this spot as a significant underdog, though I question the touch upside if he has any competition for touches.
You’re ignoring Abdullah if this situation doesn’t open up. If it does, he’ll threaten my top 30 at the position and thus be a viable Flex option in PPR formats.
Audric Estimé | DEN (vs. CLE)
In Week 10 against the Chiefs, we thought we saw a changing of the guard in Denver. In Week 11, we were less sure, but Audric Estimé did catch three passes, and that at least allowed us to retain some hope that the fifth-round rookie could carve out a niche in this creative Sean Payton offense with a breaking out Bo Nix.
Those hopes, however, were dashed against the Raiders on Sunday — three carries and zero targets. Payton pretty clearly has commitment issues when it comes to the hierarchy of his backfield (six different players had a carry), and with Nix moving the ball around (nine players saw a target in Week 12), I can’t imagine a world in which you’re feeling confident enough to plug in Estimé at any point moving forward.
There are players on your waiver wire that have more scoring equity than Estimé.
Austin Ekeler | WAS (vs. TEN)
I’ve been impressed with Autin Ekeler in his age-29 season, but the scary concussion at the end of last week has him likely to sit out at least this week. I’d keep him rostered for the short term with Brian Robinson Jr. (ankle) also at less than full strength, but you’ll have to stay on top of the news with this situation.
A multi-week projected absence would open you up to the potential of cutting ties for an asset that has a better chance of helping you qualify for the fantasy playoffs.
Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs. LAC)
It’s funny how impactful creativity can be, isn’t it? Arthur Smith was unwilling to explore new-age play-calling a season ago, and that limited the Falcons’ potential across the board. This year? Different story. For Bijan Robinson …
- 2023: 32.2% vs loaded boxes
- 2024: 15.6% vs loaded boxes
His fantasy stock has also gained stability by seeing at least four targets in six straight games; with the variety of looks, Robinson’s raw talent is shining through with more regularity (he has a 15+ yard catch and rush in two of his past three games).
With Atlanta in an advantageous rest spot this week, I think they can be just fine against Los Angeles’ elite defense. Robinson is capable of taking over at a moment’s notice, and that fact, coming off a bye, lands him as a top-five running back for me this weekend.
Braelon Allen | NYJ (vs. SEA)
There are more things wrong with the Jets than I have time to explain (keep reading, I’ll try). In short, New York’s offense isn’t functioning at a level to support All-Pros, making it impossible for a rookie like Braelon Allen to carve out any sort of meaningful role.
The explosive Wisconsin product caught six passes over his first three professional games, but Allen has only managed to haul in four since and has a total of 14 touches on his résumé over the past three weeks.
Long term, I think there’s a world in which Allen takes a step forward in Year 2 to form a dangerous backfield with Breece Hall. Yet, without volume or splash ability (none of his 72 touches this season have gained more than 20 yards), there’s not much to see here.
As a handcuff — if you have the luxury, sure, but are we sure that there is a single role in Gotham City these days that is a lock to be fantasy viable?
Breece Hall | NYJ (vs. SEA)
Breece Hall is rounding into form at the perfect time, though speculation surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ status moving forward serves as something that DFS managers will need to track — there’s no actionable move for redraft managers setting lineups for this week if a change is made.
- Week 8 at New England Patriots: 31.6% below expectations
- Week 9 vs. Houston Texans: 19.4% below expectations
- Week 10 at Arizona Cardinals: 10.7% above expectations
- Week 11 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 73.4% above expectations
Hall recorded a season-high 23 touches in the loss to the Colts, and that volume allowed him to score twice, doubling his total from the previous seven games. We are looking at an elite talent in a tough spot — he’s the 2024 version of 2023 Bijan Robinson, to a degree.
I like him to post his eighth top-20 finish of the season regardless of the situation under center, but I would remove top-five upside (three such finishes this season) from his profile should Rodgers be sat down.
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (vs. TEN)
Brian Robinson Jr. was injured early last week (ankle) and returned shortly before calling it a day. Austin Ekeler suffered a scary concussion late in the game, leaving this backfield as an unknown as we prepare for Week 13.
It is worth noting that the team signed Chris Rodriguez Jr. to the active roster on Tuesday, though I’m reading that as more of an insurance on Ekeler than anything. Robinson’s versatility has vanished this season, and without a 20-yard gain since Week 2 (vs. New York Giants), this is a profile that will have a problem producing viable numbers if his touch count is managed.
The Titans are tied for the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, opening the door for Robinson to reward your loyalty with a score, but the capped ceiling keeps him in the low-end RB2 tier without much upward trajectory.
Bucky Irving | TB (at CAR)
Rookie running backs over the past decade have multiple games with at least 40 rushing yards and six receptions:
- Alvin Kamara (five)
- Saquon Barkley (four)
- Najee Harris (three)
- James Robinson (two)
- Bijan Robinson (two)
- Bucky Irving (two).
Now that’s a list. Irving might be on the fast track to fantasy stardom, and while I don’t think we are there yet, he’s made this backfield hierarchy easier to sort out.
The short Sean Tucker rushing score on the first drive last week was annoying, but you have to take the bad with the good. Irving was responsible for six of Baker Mayfield’s first 16 completions in Week 12, a level of involvement that is more than enough to lock in.
- Weeks 10-12: 55% red-zone snap share (Rachaad White: 45%)
- Weeks 1-9: 44% red-zone snap share (Rachaad White: 67.7%)
In terms of success rate, the Panthers own the second-worst rush defense in all the land, and there is no question that Irving holds the edge over White between the tackles. The rookie is to be considered an RB2 this week, and I think that ranking sticks for the remainder of the season.
Cam Akers | MIN (vs. ARI)
Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case, and that’s where we stand right now.
Chase Brown | CIN (vs. PIT)
Chase Brown has three straight top-10 finishes, a streak not amassed by Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, or De’Von Achane this season. He’s been nothing short of special, and there’s really no reason to think we will see that change any time soon.
Brown has at least five receptions in three consecutive games (82 touches with 16 coming in the red zone over that stretch) and has ripped off a 20-yard carry in four of his past six contests. The efficiency on the ground hasn’t been there lately (last five games: 3.6 yards per carry), but as a focal point of this elite offense, there’s no reason to nitpick.
Christian McCaffrey | SF (at BUF)
We waited over two months for Christian McCaffrey to return with the thought being that he’d be the 1.01 the second he took the field.
Safe to say that hasn’t been the case.
Despite being thrown into his bell-cow role from the jump, CMC has more fumbles lost than touchdowns three weeks into his season and hasn’t showcased the game-breaking potential that we’ve associated with him for years. Last season, 16.2% of his carries gained 10+ yards, a rate that currently sits at 7% (for reference, Ameer Abdullah’s rate is 8%).
You’re starting McCaffrey, there’s no two ways about that, but I can in good faith keep him on the top line, even if Brock Purdy returns — he’s my RB4 for this week.
Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs. TB)
Until the usage changes, there’s no reason to hesitate in playing Chuba Hubbard — he’s cleared 18.5 expected fantasy points in three straight games, his second such streak of the season. Jonathon Brooks made his season debut against the Chiefs on Sunday, but that wasn’t enough to stop the recently extended Hubbard from getting another 21 opportunities (rush attempts + targets).
The Bucs have allowed a touchdown on 25.9% of opponent drives this season, the sixth-highest rate in the league and one that the upward-trending Panthers could take advantage of. Hubbard has found the end zone eight times this season for the 29th-ranked scoring offense, serving as a good reminder that, while the offensive environment is critical, it’s not to be used as gospel.
The only rule of fantasy sports is that there is an exception to every rule. I encourage you to evaluate every situation as its own thing as opposed to casting a wide net (i.e. avoid all players on poorly projected offenses).
Derrick Henry | BAL (vs. PHI)
On Monday night, the Chargers loaded the box for 70.8% of Derrick Henry’s carries. Guess what? It didn’t matter. He cleared 130 rushing yards for the fifth time this season and, despite all of the defensive attention and limited versatility (he hasn’t had a multi-target game since September), he’s delivered at least 10% over his expected points in 11 of 12 games this season.
His Week 12 performance wasn’t jaw-dropping like that of Saquon Barkley, and that has resulted in him falling back a touch in the race for Offensive Player of the Year honors. Still, he authored the exact type of performance you drafted him for – a tough matchup in the second half of the season where he just grinds out production.
The scary part is that his Barkley moment could be coming. Perhaps not this week as he plays on short rest (and for the 13th consecutive week), but maybe against the Giants after the Week 14 bye? Maybe against the Texans on Christmas day, a contest where the defense will be asked to recover in time to tackle The King just three days after dealing with Patrick Mahomes?
You’re sitting pretty if you roster Henry, even if the upcoming bye week is annoying.
Gus Edwards | LAC (at ATL)
If you play in some bizarro league where you started Gus Edwards last week, you were rewarded with a late touchdown. Even that was fortunate as the Chargers were in pass mode before a penalty put them at the one-yard line and in need of his services.
While the end result was adequate, he did have two carries (12 yards) on the first drive as Jim Harbaugh continued to give us signs that he wanted a committee backfield over a featured situation.
He might not have that luxury this weekend after J.K. Dobbins didn’t play the second half on Monday night due to a knee injury. For a player who has had his troubles staying healthy (he already has a career-high carry count by 24 this season), asking him to play on short rest for a playoff-bound team feels a bit aggressive, leaving a near bell-cow role available for Edwards to assume on Sunday.
The matchup isn’t a worry (Atlanta allows the fourth-most points per drive this season) and fantasy teams, like the real ones, are battling injuries left and right, so I get it if you are left in a spot where you have no other options. That said, even with a spike in projected work, I just can’t get there with ranking Edwards as an RB2.
Through 12 weeks, he ranks 50th of 54 qualifiers in our elusive rating metric (ahead of two Raiders, a Jaguar who has been borderline benched at times this season, and a Chief who was signed off his couch at the end of September). I don’t see that changing, as defenses know what is coming their way with him on the field.
For his career, Edwards has averaged just over one target every two games, a lack of versatility that is a death sentence if not sufficient on the ground.
You can chase this volume if you’d like – you just need to be aware that the floor remains low.
Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. LV)
There was cautious optimism entering last week that Isiah Pacheco (leg) would return to action against the Panthers, but Andy Reid ultimately ruled him out on Friday, opting to not bring him back on the heels of a short week.
A return to action on Black Friday makes all the sense in the world — Kansas City is heavily favored and will have something of a mini-bye heading into Week 14, allowing its star running back an extra 48 hours to recover.
I’m treating Pacheco as a fantasy manager exactly how I anticipate the Chiefs to — patience. They have no motivation to rush him back like the 49ers did with Christian McCaffrey, and that has me labeling 11-13 touches as a much more likely outcome than the 20.5 he averaged through the first two weeks this season.
The loss to the Bills in Week 11 could well prove to be a result that impacts fantasy championships in a major way. With Buffalo remaining in the chase for the top seed, Kansas City could be motivated to deploy Pacheco at full capacity sooner than they would have otherwise.
I have Kareem Hunt (RB2) ranked ahead of Pacheco (Flex) for this week, but I’m anticipating that flipping for Week 14 and this to be the Pacheco show during the fantasy playoffs, presuming he can escape the next few weeks without a setback.
James Conner | ARI (at MIN)
Week 12 was a mess for the Cardinals in all regards, and yet James Conner did his best to keep you competitive with his second straight five-catch performance. He has now finished each of his past five contests as a top-20 back, and while he lacks the ceiling of a Jonathan Taylor or a James Cook, he deserves to be ranked right alongside them, if not ahead.
Conner currently ranks fifth in the league in carries inside the opponent’s 25-yard line (Joe Mixon, Kyren Williams, Saquon Barkley, and David Montgomery are the only players with more), and I’ll take that to the bank against the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the league.
It’s OK to have long-term health concerns, but until we see signs of decline, you’re playing him without any thought.
James Cook | BUF (vs. SF)
James Cook has returned great profits on your investment this summer with six RB1 finishes this season, including in three of his past four games as he trends toward matchup-proof status.
Cook has remained plenty involved in the passing game (15 targets over his past three games), but there is no denying that his biggest growth from last season to this one is in his ability to find paydirt with eight more rushing scores this year on 100 fewer carries than 2023.
The spiking touchdown rate has fueled a 23.8% increase in PPR points per touch for Cook, and while Ray Davis has looked the part when given the opportunity, it’s clear that Buffalo is comfortable with a bell-cow situation.
The 49ers own a top-10 run defense in nearly every metric you should be interested in, and while that hurts the upside case for Cook this week, his volume and versatility keep him ranked as a must-start in all formats without much question.
Javonte Williams | DEN (vs. CLE)
Think all the way back to Sunday’s Broncos game. You probably remember Bo Nix making plays, a Courtland Sutton touchdown or two, and maybe even the chunk play from Marvin Mims Jr.
Think really hard.
Do you remember anything from Javonte Williams?
I had him on a DFS roster and got paid to watch this stuff, and my answer is “no”. A look back at the stats confirms — nope, nothing of note.
Nothing positive at least.
From Week 18 of 2021 through Week 12 of 2024, there have been 2,032 instances in which a player had at least eight carries in a game, and none of them averaged fewer yards per carry before contact than Williams on Sunday against, of all teams, the Raiders.
Minus 2.13 yards.
The average distance a running back lines up behind the line of scrimmage is roughly seven yards. That means that, with zero resistance and a designed dive, you’d expect him to meet the defenders 3.5 yards behind the line of scrimmage.
What Williams did on Sunday wasn’t much better than that, and that’s with an offensive line of full-grown men blocking for him with full knowledge of where the play is going, an advantage that the defense clearly doesn’t have.
Entering Week 12, the Raiders ranked 12th in preventing running back yards per carry before contact, a nice ranking, but it’s not as if this is an all-time defense or anything like that. What the Broncos put on tape last season was a problem. A big problem. Williams was the victim on Sunday, but I can’t imagine starting any of their running backs in even the deepest of formats right now.
Sean Payton involves the running backs in the passing game, and that’s great, but with three mouths to feed and only one viable outlet to do so — you’re asking for trouble if you invest in any capacity here.
Jaylen Warren | PIT (at CIN)
Jaylen Warren played a season-high 56.7% of the snaps against the Browns and upped his season rate in percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards to 34.7%. With Najee Harris’ production fading, could Warren finally be given the work we’ve been begging for at the exact right time?
I loved that he cashed in a three-yard touchdown last week, and the upcoming schedule figures to put pressure on this offense to throw more than they want.
- Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
That’s the type of schedule that favors Warren over Harris. I have the two ranked next to each other for the rest of the season, both in the Flex tier, a damning move given the edge in volume Harris currently holds.
There’s always a risk involved with a player whose 14 touches last week feel closer to a projectable touch ceiling, and I don’t think that is going to change this weekend or moving forward. That said, if the recent trends are sustained, Warren is positioned to be the most valuable member of this backfield down the stretch.
Jeremy McNichols | WAS (vs. TEN)
Jeremy McNichols has averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season with four scores on 44 attempts — strong numbers, albeit in a tiny sample size. The Commanders haven’t shown a great interest in ramping up his usage, but with Brian Robinson Jr. (ankle) and Austin Ekeler (concussion) suffering injuries last week, the path to increased usage is clear.
Little is known about the journey back, as he has 176 touches over his eight seasons in the NFL. We did see him average two catches per game with the Titans back in 2021 (revenge game!), giving me hope that a day with 12-14 carries and 3-5 targets is within the realm of possibilities should both Robinson and Ekeler sit.
If that’s the case, we are looking at a viable Flex option in all formats.
Jerome Ford, CLE (at DEN)
Jerome Ford continues to work behind Nick Chubb, and if there was ever a chance for him to see his usage increase, it would have been last week in a poor-weather game with an elite defense on the other side. If there was a situation to start Chubb, that was it.
Browns RB usage, Week 12:
- Chubb: 63.6% snaps, 20 carries, and one target
- Ford: 36.4% snaps, four carries, and one target
It didn’t happen. If you want to roster Ford as a Chubb handcuff, knock yourself out. In an instance where he takes over the RB1 role, I think this offense is better positioned now for him to succeed than it was back in September, so there’s merit to hanging onto him for depth purposes.
Until that injury/rest situation, however, Ford doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups.
J.K. Dobbins | LAC (at ATL)
I thought J.K. Dobbins was running hard on Monday night against a stingy Ravens run defense and I was thrilled to see his number called on 11 of their first 24 plays (six carries and five targets), but a knee injury ended his night before halftime and we’ve seen this story before for the 25-year-old.
Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has appeared in 35 of a possible 78 regular season games (44.9%). We don’t yet have clarity on the injury, but on a short week at this point in the season and the Chargers more focused on making nice in late January than early December, I think it’s plenty reasonable to sit Dobbins on your bench right now and pivot if the news takes an optimistic turn.
Los Angeles’ lead running back was more productive early this season than I would have ever expected. While he has shown some splash play ability of late, there’s no denying that he peaked in September. Even if deemed healthy, I won’t be ranking Dobbins as high as you want me to, fearing that even a slightly compromised version of him could see less volume, and that’s been the driving force to his value.
This season, his PPR points per touch, stuff rate, and yards per carry after contact are all below his career norm despite the lowest loaded box rate of his career. Gus Edwards punched in a short score on Monday night. If Dobbins gives up the inside-the-10 work, we could be looking at an awfully thin profile moving forward.
I’m ranking this backfield, at the moment, as if they will not have Dobbins at their disposal in Week 13.
Joe Mixon | HOU (at JAX)
Joe Mixon has finished each of his past seven games as a fantasy starter, a run of production that includes five top-eight finishes. His volume on the ground is as reliable as anyone this side of Derrick Henry, but how about a spike in passing-game usage last week with the game on the line?
C.J. Stroud clearly has unwavering trust in his bell-cow back, and that makes him a script-proof RB1 that you can take to the bank weekly. You got a great bargain on draft day in Mixon — it’s now on you to finish the deal with a championship!
Jonathan Taylor | IND (at NE)
The return of Anthony Richardson under center has decimated Jonathan Taylor’s efficiency. In those two games, Taylor has produced 58.4% under expectations (36 touches for 95 yards and zero scores). Are the recent struggles based on the quarterback? Based on the matchups?
The answer, of course, is somewhere in the middle. Richardson’s rushing equity could eat into Taylor’s the way many feared Jalen Hurts’ would to Saquon Barkley’s, but the Lions and Jets also have plenty of talent on the defensive end of the ball, so that can’t be overlooked.
The Patriots, by EPA, have a below-average run defense, and I think that gives Taylor a chance to post his second top-10 finish of the season as he gets back to the role of 18-22 touches that he had been penciled in for before the one-sided game against Detroit last week.
It’s okay to be disappointed with what you’ve seen from Taylor lately, but it’s not okay to bench him.
Jonathon Brooks | CAR (vs. TB)
Jonathon Brooks played 8.6% of the snaps last week in his professional debut (Chuba Hubbard: 87.9%), picking up seven yards on his two carries against the Chiefs. I expect the team to slowly ramp up his usage to give him a taste of the NFL game, but I’d be surprised if he got much past 10 touches in any game this season. That means he’s unlikely to grace my top 30 at any point.
If he’s going to impact fantasy leagues this season, it’s because he cashes in a red-zone carry, and the manager with Chuba Hubbard falls out of the playoffs as a result of the missed opportunity. Brooks is an interesting name to keep track of for next season — I’m holding for this week to see what the team does with his usage and cutting ties if we don’t see some serious growth.
Jordan Mason | SF (at BUF)
Jordan Mason has been on the field for just 8.5% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps since Christian McCaffrey returned and has no path to earning more work outside of an injury to the team’s starter.
With their season on the line, the 49ers are likely to ride McCaffrey as hard now as ever, and while that doesn’t mean anything for Mason this week, every touch added to a role increases health risk; that is why I’d hold onto Mason if you have the space as we prepare for the stretch run.
If the 49ers fall this week, do they try to manage McCaffrey and make sure he leaves the season in one piece? That might be overthinking things, but it’s possible, and that would make Mason an impact player during the fantasy postseason.
Justice Hill | BAL (vs. PHI)
Justice Hill took a carry 51 yards to the house against the Chargers on Monday night, his first run gaining more than nine yards since September. I’m not sure he’s a direct handcuff to Derrick Henry, but with an 84.6% catch rate this season, he’d just need 10-12 carries to work into the Flex conversation.
It’s clear that is not going to happen at the moment, but I’m more sold on that being projectable if Henry were to get dinged up, and that makes Hill a fine stash that you can plug in if pressed, something that I don’t think you can really say for other handcuffs like Ray Davis or Jaylen Wright.
Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. LV)
I’ve been consistent in this train of thought, and I’m sticking with it — Kareem Hunt is a fantasy starter until we see Isiah Pacheco make it through a game without a setback. The presumed starter was inactive last week after some momentum had built surrounding his return to action, and while he is expected back on Black Friday, this team isn’t motivated to push the envelope.
Hunt has at least 19 touches in six of his past seven games, giving him room to surrender some work without falling outside of my top 24 at the position. The Chiefs may not be lighting up the scoreboard like we want them to, but 22.5% of Hunt’s touches this season have come in the red zone; that’s a role I want in my starting lineup against a Raiders defense that allows the fifth-most points per drive.
Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at NYJ)
Kenneth Walker III has multiple catches in every one of his games this season and has earned 5+ targets in five games this season. If you gave me that sentence in August without any other context, I would have told you that he had a shot at being the top-scoring running back in our game.
That, of course, hasn’t been the case. We haven’t seen the explosive plays that we penciled in as part of Walker’s profile. Heck, we haven’t seen even league-average production over the past month.
Walker doesn’t have a 30-yard run this season and has averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in back-to-back-to-back-to-back games. He has a stranglehold on the lead role in Seattle, and that role slots him into my top 20 without much thought.
Maybe we can get a spike performance against an underachieving Jets run defense that ranks 20th in terms of EPA. I’m hopeful, but at the very least, you can lock in 14-16 carries and 3-5 targets in an above-average offense.
Khalil Herbert | CIN (vs. PIT)
Khalil Herbert, for me, isn’t in the same tier as a Ray Davis or Tyler Allgeier handcuff, and thus he can be cut loose as the value of every single roster spot increases down the stretch.
Chase Brown is being used as a true bell cow, and while Herbert is technically the next man up, his playing just 3.9% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps since being acquired indicates that, even should an injury occur, this team isn’t ready to unleash the former Bear.
Instead of hanging onto Herbert, I’d rather roster a boom/bust receiver that has access to a weekly ceiling and can thus help me out if I’m in desperation mode.
Kyren Williams | LAR (at NO)
Kyren Williams finally got back into the end zone on Sunday night against the Eagles, allowing him to return enough in the way of fantasy production to be deserving of lineup-lock status.
OK, “finally” was a bit dramatic. Three straight games without a touchdown happen to most players in the NFL, but we just notice it more when it happens on the heels of a 10-game regular season scoring streak.
His role on the doorstep is as safe as any RB in the league, and with at least 15 carries in nine straight games, there’s no reason to waste any brain power on lineup decisions surrounding Williams.
Having said that, I have zero interest in going this direction in the DFS streets. Not only do the Saints own the sixth-best red zone defense in the league but Williams has been phased out of the passing game recently with zero targets in consecutive contests. He’s also put the ball on the ground four times in November (two lost fumbles), another red flag.
Williams sits just outside of the top 10 for me this week. That’s about where I expect him to settle weekly moving forward.
Najee Harris | PIT (at CIN)
We entered this season with concerns about Najee Harris’ efficiency, and we fell for it. You and me both. We fell for three strong weeks, and I’m disappointed in us as a collective.
- Weeks 6-8: 25.2% over expectation, 16.7% stuff rate, and 20.4% explosive rate
- Weeks 10-12: 26.8% under expectation, 29.1% stuff rate, and 9.1% explosive rate
That’s not to say that he can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups. I still believe in the trajectory of this offense as a whole, and Harris finishing with at least 18 touches in five straight games holds significant value this time of year, but I think the week-winning upside that we had some access to earlier is gone.
The Bengals are a vulnerable defense as a whole, but running backs have produced 10.5% under expectations against them this season; with them coming off a bye, they figure to be as fresh as a team can be this time of year.
Proceed with caution, both for Week 13 and the rest of the way.
Nick Chubb | CLE (at DEN)
The two touchdowns, including the game-winner, were nice to see from Nick Chubb on Thursday night, but be careful. This season, just 4.1% of his carries have gained 10+ yards, far below his career norm entering this season (15.8%).
He’s not at the peak of his powers, but to my eye, he is running hard. That said, how far can a profile like Chubb’s go when he is picking up just 0.4 yards per carry before first contact?
The Browns have nothing but brutal matchups or explosive offenses left on their schedule, a concern for a script-dependent back like Chubb who has, checks notes, negative three receiving yards over the past month. There’s low-end Flex value here for as long as he holds the RB1 role in this offense, a role I don’t see leaving him — there’s just not much upward mobility in terms of my projections.
Rachaad White | TB (at CAR)
Tampa Bay’s backfield is very clearly trending away from Rachaad White, but he is holding onto Flex value this week thanks to his versatility and a matchup with the worst defense in the league when it comes to points allowed per drive.
Buccaneers RB snaps shares, Week 12:
- Bucky Irving: 54.8%
- White: 46.8%
- Sean Tucker: 8.1%
The Sean Tucker thing is what could be a problem. If his role gets expanded, a three-back committee is difficult to feel good about. White has earned at least six targets or run for a score in five straight games, a form that slides him inside my top 35 at the position, even as I continue putting air in Irving’s tires.
Ray Davis | BUF (vs. SF)
Ray Davis is exactly the type of player I want this time of year — no temptation to play weekly but a top-20 upside if a role opens up
Since burying the New York Jets in Week 6 with James Cook sidelined, Davis hasn’t played more than 23% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in a single game. He’s the clear handcuff in this offense, and there is value in that if you have a good team that is positioning itself for a deep playoff run.
However, if your team is clawing for every win to qualify for the postseason, you might be forced to make a tough call on a player like Davis. There’s no path to stand-alone value as long as Cook is healthy; with that currently the case, cutting Davis is reasonable if you’re trying to maximize your Week 13 roster.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs. IND)
Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t scored in three straight games, and his production relative to expectations over that stretch is -41.1%. He now has five games this season with single-digit PPR points — three games with under five points to offset his three 20+ point games.
The game script was an issue for New England last week (five carries for 11 yards in the first 30 minutes with the Pats down 24-0) and, as expected, Stevenson was rendered useless in the second half.
I’m confident that Stevenson is the featured back in this offense, but I’m just as confident that he can’t make the carries count (2.8 yards per carry over his past six games). He’s as underwhelming as any featured back in the game and thus checks in as nothing more than an average Flex.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (at BAL)
And you thought the backward hurdle was going to be the highlight of this magical season for Saquon Barkley?
Saquon Barkley’s 46.2 PPR fantasy points last night set his new career high, and gave him a commanding lead in the category among running backs (265.9, +39.8 on No. 2). Remarkably, he has had a better 11-game start to a season, scoring 286.0 points through 11 as a rookie in 2018.
— Tristan H. Cockcroft (@SultanofStat) November 25, 2024
I just don’t know what you’re supposed to do defensively. Barkley exposed the dangers of loading the box against him, but are opponents supposed to just let this offensive line manhandle them and hope their linebackers can make a tackle in space?
Barkley’s average yards per carry before contact have nearly tripled from a year ago. The All-Pro has at least as many 10-yard gains as carries that have failed to gain yardage in five of his past six games, a rate that is almost unheard of.
The NFL MVP? I’d still very much bet against it, but the fantasy football MVP is very much his to lose. Would you draft him first overall in 2025?
Tank Bigsby | JAX (vs. HOU)
Tank Bigsby was inactive in Week 11 before the bye, and this is a health situation to monitor. He’s shown well for himself in his second season (15.1% production over expectation), and that’s enough for me to shift the majority of RB carries in Jacksonville his way should he suit up.
That role is nice to have, but in this low-octane offense, the ceiling is only so high for a one-dimensional option (19 carries for every target this year). Fantasy championships aren’t usually won by banking on a committee back in an offense that ranks in the 25th percentile in most metrics — that’s what we have here, even if Bigsby is technically the starter.
Tony Pollard | TEN (at WAS)
“Running hard” comes with a gray area, but Tony Pollard certainly checked that box last week with Tyjae Spears (concussion), producing his best game relative to expectations since Week 6.
Tennessee leaned on its lead back in a significant way out of the gates, and with early success, that allowed them to commit. Pollard touched the ball seven times on their first 19 plays, picking up 55 scrimmage yards and a score in the process. I hate to make things simple, but how do you see this game playing out?
Three wins this season: 19.7 PPG and 27.3 touches per game
Eight losses this season: 12.0 PPG and 16.9 touches per game
Personally, I like Washington to bounce back off of a chaotic Week 12 loss, and that means I’m lower on Pollard. I have him ranked as my RB25 right now with the assumption that Spears returns — if that’s not the case, he’ll inch into the back end of my RB2 rankings, but not much higher.
Travis Etienne | JAX (vs. HOU)
Travis Etienne Jr.’s name is on the list of most disappointing early-round picks this season, and I’m not sure there’s a path to him salvaging much given the state of this offense if Tank Bigsby can shake off his ankle injury.
Etienne’s production rates by season:
- 2023: 8.5% production over expectations
- 2024: 21.1% production under expectations
His metrics have declined across the board, most glaringly a 19.9% dip in yards per carry after contact; while I favor him in the passing game over Bigsby, I’m not sure there’s enough meat on this bone to start him with confidence.
If you’re confident that the goal line is Etienne’s to lose, you could talk yourself into a score saving your bacon (HOU: third worst red-zone defense), but if Bigsby is good to go, you’re grasping for straws.
Trey Benson | ARI (at MIN)
Trey Benson should be rostered in more leagues than he is given his proximity to volume, but as we’ve been saying for months now, holding him is a bet against James Conner’s health more than anything.
The rookie was on the field for just 16.1% of snaps last week, and he’s cleared one-quarter of the snaps just twice this season, both in one-sided contests. Holding Benson is the proper way to build a roster, even if he doesn’t currently factor into your weekly decision-making.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (at WAS)
Tyjae Spears was ruled out last Friday with a concussion, though limited practice sessions throughout the week have me putting him on the right side of questionable heading into Week 13.
He might well be active for the Titans, but he’s done nothing to be deserving of consideration in even the deepest of fantasy leagues. Only once this season has the former third-round pick cleared seven carries, and while he has shown promise during his short career as a pass catcher, he has a total of 12 receiving yards over his past four games.
There’s no need to back up your Tony Pollard investment; Spears should be on waiver wires across the board.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs. LAC)
Ray Davis, Trey Benson, Braelon Allen. There are a handful of running backs that hold no value when the starter is healthy but are only an injury away from walking into the RB2 tier of my rankings, and Tyler Allgeier is clearly in that mold.
He’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season and has proven the ability to pick up yards consistently when given the opportunity (career: 34.7% of carries have gained at least five yards). The schedule lines up nicely when it matters most (Weeks 15-17: Raiders, Giants, and Commanders), and that is enough to justify keeping Allgeier rostered, even if you out-gained him in Week 11.
Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at NYJ)
Zach Charbonnet’s playing time has increased in consecutive weeks with Kenneth Walker III struggling to make the splash plays we believed to be in his profile (last four games: 2.97 yards per carry), but we are still looking at nothing more than a handcuff back in a spotty offense that ranks third in pass rate over expectation this season.
The 37.7% snap share from Week 12 is something of a ceiling for Charbonnet, and even that wasn’t enough to get him above the six-touch role that he was capped at for the entire month of November. With Seattle playing meaningful games down the stretch, their backup RB deserves to be rostered (40 touches in the two games Walker missed earlier this season), but there should be no temptation to slot him in as a Flex option in any format.
