Week 11 RB Start’ Em or Sit’ Em: Start-Sit Advice for Every Fantasy-Relevant Running Back in Every Game

Week 11 is here, and as always, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.

If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 11 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.

Aaron Jones | MIN (at TEN)

I’ve used this space to say it a few times, and I’ll continue to say it: Aaron Jones’ managers are skating on thin ice. He’s again banged up, this time with a rib injury that Kevin O’Connell doesn’t believe will cost him time, but the premise remains the same. This is a featured back who turns 30 in less than a month and has had his fair share of troubles staying on the field.

Jones scored on the third carry of his Vikings tenure and has punched in just one of his 139 rushing attempts since. Volume has been the driving force behind him being a viable option in each of the past four weeks, but it’s beginning to feel as if we are on borrowed time with this offense as a whole.

Cam Akers is a must-add if you haven’t made the move already as he is working ahead of Ty Chandler these days in the RB2 role. You’re playing Jones any week he is active because Minnesota has proven to be committed to giving him 17-20 touches, but I’d want to make sure I have plenty of RB depth for the stretch run.

Alexander Mattison | LV (at MIA)

“Matchup-proof” is typically used in a positive light, but the Raiders’ run game is “matchup-proof” in the sense that there is no matchup that would prove worthy of our attention.

Alexander Mattison is the lead in this backfield, and I think that title is reasonably safe, but considering he hasn’t had a 20-yard gain since September, what exactly is the path to viable production?

If not for a garbage-time score at the very end of Week 9, cutting a 24-point deficit to 17 with 22 seconds left, this Raiders team would be without an outing of 21+ points since Week 3. There is no requirement for every backfield in the NFL to have a running back who deserves to be rostered, let alone considered in the Flex conversation, something of which Las Vegas is proof positive.

Alvin Kamara | NO (vs. CLE)

Alvin Kamara has three straight games with at least 50 receiving and 50 rushing yards, joining Christian McCaffrey as the only player with such a streak since 2017. The usage has been elite, and that’s not going to change with this team regularly losing skill-position players, though increased usage for Taysom Hill could result in a frustrating goal-line situation.

Don’t let the dropped 56-yard touchdown from last week concern you — he makes that play 99 times out of 100 and you should be encouraged about him being in a position to do so. The Browns allow a touchdown at the second-highest rate to running backs this season — there are a lot of ways for Kamara to pay off your trust and produce top-15 numbers for an eighth time this season.

Antonio Gibson | NE (vs. LAR)

Antonio Gibson has four straight games with no more than five touches and is exactly the type of player I am talking about when I say “trimming the fat.” Gibson works his way onto the field and is the RB2 on this depth chart, but I want players with a reasonable path to a ceiling on my bench; I’m not sold on that being the case here.

Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry and has gone a month without a 15-yard touch. I’m not positive that the lead role in this backfield is locked into lineups at this point, making the backup role a risk not worth taking in this below-average offense.

Patriots’ offensive rankings, 2024:

• 27th in red-zone efficiency
• 28th in three-and-out rate
• 29th in average drive distance
• 30th in points per drive

Lineup spots are too valuable to roster Gibson in 2024.

Audric Estimé | DEN (vs. ATL)

The fifth-round rookie out of Notre Dame seemingly took control of this backfield last week. That made him the cover boy for all waiver wire content this week.

Broncos RB snap shares, Week 10:

• Estimé: 45.5%
• Javonte Williams: 29.1%
• Jaleel McLaughlin: 10.9%

Estimé averaged 6.2 yards per carry during his time in college, and while the versatility was limited, he did score on 7.8% of his carries, a skill set that might transfer nicely to the pros for the 227-pound back.

Diving more into the Week 10 usage, it was Williams who was featured in the first quarter and the Estimé show began after that (Quarters 2-4: 57.5% snap share). For the game, those two essentially split third-down duties, with Estimé holding a significant edge on the first two downs, the money-making downs as far as fantasy managers are concerned.

This is pretty clearly a fluid situation that demands our attention but not our Week 11 commitment. I’m not starting any Broncos RB in any format this week but rather using this matchup against a below-average run defense (both in EPA and success rate) as a data point when it comes to evaluating the final month-plus of this fantasy season.

Austin Ekeler | WAS (at PHI)

Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) has missed consecutive games, and that has allowed Austin Ekeler to see an uptick in usage. But true to his word this preseason, it’s clear that he has no interest in taking over a bellcow role, even when injuries open up the door for that.

In those two games, Ekeler has been on the field for 58% of his snaps and rushed for a total of 86 yards (3.6 yards per carry). None of that stands out, but with three rushing scores, the impact of playing the lead role in a strong offense is clear.

For the season, Ekeler has produced 20.7% over expectations. It’s clear that he has more gas in the tank than we gave him credit for in drafts this summer, but I’m still going to have a hard time giving him a Flex grade any time Robinson is active.

You’re rostering him with the understanding that he’s never going to be highly ranked but that you can play him in a pinch and avoid the zero floor that home run-hitting receivers come with. Should Robinson miss another game, we are looking at an RB2; if not, he ranks in the low 30s at the position this week.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (at DEN)

We are finally getting the usage we wanted from Bijan Robinson. He has at least 19 carries and three receptions in three of his past four games (that’s three more such games than he had all of last season).

It’s a beautiful thing.

The Falcons are in scoring position whenever Robinson touches the ball, and I have him as a part of the “matchup-proof” tier at the position. The Broncos are elite in most defensive metrics, and while I buy that, I buy this version of Robinson more.

Even with the stats in their corner, Denver has allowed over 110 rushing yards to opposing running backs four times this season. Tyler Allgeier failed to convert three goal-line carries last week, leaving the door wide open for Robinson to take over this backfield in a Christian McCaffrey-like way.

The Falcons close the 2024 fantasy season with the Raiders, Giants, and Commanders — get your team to that point, and he should be able to handle the heavy lifting.

Braelon Allen | NYJ (vs. IND)

Braelon Allen has an interesting profile for dynasty managers, but for redraft purposes, he’s nothing more than a luxury stash that can be cut if the need arises. The rookie has seen his snap share decline in consecutive weeks. In the few opportunities that he’s had in those contests, he’s underwhelmed (5.3 points produced with an 8.7-point expectation).

Allen is a Breece Hall handcuff and nothing more. If you need immediate help, this is the type of player you can move on from, though I wouldn’t just cut him for the sake of cutting him. There’s a chance that New York goes into player development mode down the stretch, and that could result in a usage spike this winter.

Breece Hall | NYJ (vs. IND)

Breece Hall owns the worst boom/bust rate of 26 qualified running backs this season (25% of his carries have failed to gain yardage while only 11.8% have gained at least 10 yards). That’s a problem if this offense isn’t generating the type of scoring opportunities that we thought they would (one rushing score after scoring twice in three games to open the season).

On the bright side, he’s earned at least four targets in nine of 10 games, and his yards per catch are up 17.9% from a season ago. Due to the limitations of this offense, Hall is no longer a top-tier running back, but he does have a stranglehold on the lead role and can be started with confidence against a Colts defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to running backs this season (118.2).

Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at PHI)

Brian Robinson Jr. has now missed consecutive games due to a hamstring injury (stop me if you’ve seen “hamstring injury lingering longer than expected” before), and that has me worried about not only his status but his usage.

I like Robinson at full strength, but it’s because the volume is there and the scoring equity is high. Does he check either of those boxes this week? The Eagles own a top-10 red-zone defense, and if we don’t get a clean bill of health entering the weekend, I’d be tempted to project something closer to 12-14 touches than the 17-20 we’ve come to enjoy.

For the season, 40.5% of Robinson’s receiving yards came on a single catch in Week 1. The versatility has regressed after the encouraging start, and that makes this profile a tougher sell if the health status is TBD. I currently have Robinson out of my Week 11 lineups and will pivot if needed as opposed to vice versa.

Cam Akers | MIN (at TEN)

Cam Akers is the type of addition savvy fantasy managers make entering the holiday season. That’s not to say that he’s a league winner or anything like that, but he provides you with an avenue to production, and that’s the profile I want to load my bench with for the stretch run.

Last week, Akers doubled Ty Chandler’s snap count, providing us with proof that he sits as the RB2 on Minnesota’s depth chart. Aaron Jones has over 1,700 touches on his NFL résumé, has missed time in three of the past four seasons, and is currently battling sore ribs (not expected to threaten his status for Week 11 but worth noting).

The 7-2 Vikings will be playing meaningful games in December and are well past their bye week. Would it surprise you at all for Jones to miss time at some point? After this week …

• Week 12 at Chicago Bears (15th in defensive rush success rate)
• Week 13 vs. Arizona Cardinals (28th)
• Week 14 vs. Atlanta Falcons (27th)
• Week 15 vs. Chicago Bears (15th)
• Week 16 at Seattle Seahawks (24th)

Only a veteran RB with a checkered health history stands between Akers and a strong Flex ranking. Make the addition now and cut loose your WR6 who you’re never going to realistically play.

Chase Brown | CIN (at LAC)

The Bengals placed Zack Moss (neck) on IR last week, and that encouraged them to make a deadline deal for Khalil Herbert, a move that inspired some strong reactions:

RIP Chase Brown bellcow role

November 3rd, 2024 – November 5th, 2024 https://t.co/rlxzj4bnHI

— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) November 5, 2024

I’m not here to say that’s the wrong angle, but Chase Brown played 88% of the snaps on Thursday night in Baltimore while racking up 13 rush attempts and earning 11 targets (nine catches for 52 yards). They tried to get Herbert’s feet wet, and he put a handoff on the ground. Now, it was a quick turnaround following the trade, and he did recover the fumble to prevent a complete disaster, but it certainly wasn’t an inspiring debut.

Brown has scored in six of his past seven games and has produced 3.6% over fantasy expectations this season. I do think there is some validity to shifting some work Herbert’s way, but what’s the ceiling? Brown held roughly a 65/35% touch edge recently over Moss. If that’s the floor, we are still talking about a fine RB2 for the remainder of the season as the featured back in an offense that is going to be asked to score plenty.

This isn’t a good matchup, and that goes without saying, but Brown’s versatility should be able to overcome that (see Week 10) until we have a tangible reason to doubt his volume.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs. SEA)

The long-awaited return of fantasy’s 1.01 wasn’t overwhelming from a box score standpoint (107 yards with no scores on 19 touches), but the usage checked every box. He made a big play on a Brock Purdy fadeaway jumper that reminded us all of just how different he is from the rest of the backs in this league.

If Week 10 was a ramping up of CMC, the rest of the NFL (and opposing fantasy teams) is in trouble. In two games against the Seahawks last season, all McCaffrey did was turn 35 carries into 259 yards and two scores.

No big deal.

He also caught six of seven targets in both of those convincing victories. The version of McCaffrey that you drafted in August is here to carry your team during the home stretch.

Let’s go!

D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs. GB)

D’Andre Swift has at least 16 carries in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL, allowing him to retain value. I think what we’ve seen from Swift up to this point (3.1% production over expectation) is about what we can expect, and while there are red flags in this profile, the matchup against the 28th-ranked EPA run defense is more than enough to justify starting a running back whose role is safe.

The Bears have gone 22 straight drives without a touchdown. If you remove two outlier carries from Swift this season, we are looking at a plodding back averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Still, a voluminous role in November holds value, especially in an offense that would prefer to shorten the game.

David Montgomery | DET (vs. JAX)

I don’t love the fact that David Montgomery has failed to clear 12 carries in five of his past six games, but with a touchdown in seven of his past nine while playing for one of the top three offenses in the league, I’m more willing to overlook the limited touch ceiling.

The Jaguars own a bottom-10 red-zone defense, allowing a touchdown on 60.5% of red-zone drives, making them the perfect spot to employ Montgomery with plenty of confidence.

Derrick Henry | BAL (at PIT)

When this game kicks off, we will be 322 days removed from the last game in which Derrick Henry played and failed to reach the end zone. The Bengals defended him well on Thursday night (his fewest yards per carry in a game since Week 1), won the time of possession battle, and had no answer for Lamar Jackson (141.4 passer rating). And yet, 71 yards and a touchdown.

Najee Harris has impressed this season, right? Jordan Mason is the reason your fantasy team is sitting pretty right now, correct? Henry’s floor performance against Cincinnati is essentially what those two have offered on a per-game basis this season.

The Steelers have played against three different star running backs this season (Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Breece Hall), and they all cleared 100 scrimmage yards. This matchup isn’t ideal, and I couldn’t care less — Henry is, at worst, a fine starter and capable of breaking the slate against any defense in the NFL.

De’Von Achane | MIA (vs. LV)

De’Von Achane was bottled up on Monday night against the Rams (52 yards and no touchdowns on 17 touches), but the game plan in Miami is to get him the ball in space, and that is going to elevate his floor to that of a Tier 2 running back.

In a game where Miami couldn’t move the ball or establish any push up front, their lead back still reached double figures in PPR fantasy points thanks to catching five passes, a total he’s hit in every one of Tua Tagovailoa’s starts this season.

The Raiders allow the 10th-most yards per carry to running backs this season, and with the built-in floor that is his pass-catching ability, a spike week could be in store for this explosive Dolphin. You’re starting him weekly and feeling privileged to do so.

Ezekiel Elliott | DAL (vs. HOU)

Tyler Allgeier saw his role potentially vanish by struggling at the goal line during Week 10 and Ezekiel Elliott did him one better by fumbling away his opportunity to punch in a score.

The veteran back hasn’t cleared 10 rush attempts in a game this season and only has one reception since September, making him a pretty clear cut in all formats if he is still on the end of your roster for some reason. Elliott played just 21.4% of the snaps on Sunday, and by putting the ball on the ground for an offense that already has enough problems, that rate appears more likely to regress than progress in the coming weeks.

Gus Edwards | LAC (vs. CIN)

Gus Edwards (ankle) returned to action last week, his first appearance since September, and was used in a pretty similar way.

Weeks 1-4

• 37.8% snap share
• 3.1 expected fantasy points per game

Week 10

• 24.6% snap share
• 5.5 expected fantasy points

He was heavily used when on the field (10 carries for 55 yards) and looked about as good as we could have hoped after the extended absence. That said, the best case scenario isn’t overly appealing in most fantasy leagues.

In the Week 10 win over the Titans, five different Chargers had multiple rush attempts. If a wide distribution of work in this backfield is going to stick, Edwards reaching double digit carries isn’t going to be the norm and without a versatile skill set, asking him to return standalone value isn’t wise.

You can stash him if you lack other options, but he’s a handcuff to JK Dobbins that doesn’t carry the type of role upside that half a dozen other handcuffs do.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (at BUF)

The Chiefs have been projecting a late November return for Isiah Pacheco and that means now is the time to try to acquire him in the trade markets if the team holding him is in desperate need of victories.

I find it unlikely that Pacheco assumes an elite workload immediately upon his return (Kansas City’s record gives them a luxury with their RB1 that San Francisco didn’t have) and that buys Kareem Hunt managers a few more weeks of viability.

Stay close to the reporting, but I’m tentatively expecting a Week 13 return to fantasy lineups. He is unlikely to play this week and with the Panthers on deck for Week 12, the team figures to be cautious with a player they want to peak in January as opposed to risk in November.

Week 13 is not only a good matchup (vs. Raiders), but it comes on a Friday, giving Pacheco additional time to recover before a Week 14 showdown with the Chargers.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs. JAX)

Sunday night was a crazy game for a variety of reasons, but with Jared Goff struggling, it was great to see them trust Jahmyr Gibbs with a season-high 19 carries. He wasn’t very efficient with that work (71 yards), but if you’re telling me we are giving an explosive player like Gibbs usage like that, I’ll take it to the bank.

Gibbs’ boom/bust rate (difference in the percentage of carries gaining 10+ yards to carries failing to gain any yards) is +2.5% — he’s the only qualified RB with more 10-yard gains than stuff efforts this season. That level of explosiveness has fueled eight top-20 finishes, and I see no reason to bet against this profile moving forward.

Detroit ranks 23rd in pass rate over expectation, a style of play-calling that allows them to give us two running backs whom we can trust at a high level every week.

James Cook | BUF (vs. KC)

Hear me out: What you see from a running back early in his career isn’t necessarily who he is for the rest of his career.

James Cook entered this season with concerns about his ability to find paydirt, a perceived weakness that has been a strength this season. He has twice as many rushing scores this season (128 carries) as he had through two professional seasons (326 carries) and is running as hard as anyone in the league, of which his 20-yard gain in the first quarter was proof.

Buffalo’s run game is going to prove critical this week as they try to hand the defending champs their first loss of the season, and Cook is the type of player who can help facilitate that. He’s posted five top-15 finishes this season, and I’m expecting a sixth, even against the top-ranked run defense in almost every category you’d look at (yards per carry, EPA, success rate, etc.).

Javonte Williams | DEN (vs. ATL)

To call this season an up-and-down one for Javonte Williams would be a bit of an understatement, but it would appear that things are bottoming out at the worst time possible for his loyal fantasy managers.

Denver jumped out to a 14-3 lead through the first 1.5 quarters on Sunday afternoon against the Chiefs, and Williams had one of their eight rush attempts as they worked into a favorable script. As it turns out, that was the only carry he’d get for the entire game as he finished with more targets than rushing yards.

We are coming up on a month since the last time we saw Williams gain 10 yards with a handoff, and none of his 103 totes this season have picked up more than 20 yards. Through 10 weeks, he’s produced 18.4% below fantasy expectations and is trending in the direction of being a roster cut.

I’m not pulling the trigger yet as we’ve seen Sean Payton cycle through backs in the past, but I’m certainly not holding with much confidence, and there isn’t a type of league in which I’d be entertaining the idea of starting him.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs. BAL)

Jaylen Warren’s role has seen him in that 40-50% snap range in three straight games, but Najee Harris’ ankle injury could open us up to extended usage in a suddenly strong Steelers offense in the short term.

In his role as it is, Warren has multiple catches in four straight games; when he was pushed into an increased workload against the Commanders, I thought he handled himself well (six of his 14 carries picked up at least five yards while he failed to gain yardage just once).

This has been far from a banner season for the third-year back (21.7% production below expectations), but the upward trajectory of this offense has me encouraged and penciling Warren in as a low-end RB2 should Harris sit.

This is as tough a spot as it gets in terms of running the ball (BAL: in the top three in success rate, rushing yards, yards per carry, and EPA against running backs), but a handful of targets could be enough to position him as a fantasy starter.

Watch the news on Harris — if he is trending toward being active despite limitations in practice, I’ll be out on both backs, but should his health take a drastic swing in one direction or the other, I’ll be reacting.

Jaylen Wright | MIA (vs. LV)

If you think you’re seeing more of Jaylen Wright lately, you’re eyes aren’t deceiving you.

Wright’s snap shares by week, 2024:

• Week 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals: 4.7%
• Week 9 at Buffalo Bills: 15%
• Week 10 at Los Angeles Rams: 17%

That’s a positive trend with Tua Tagovailoa adding upside to Miami’s motion-oriented offense, but we aren’t close to labeling the explosive rookie as viable.

I do think there is something here in dynasty leagues, but in the scope of 2024, you can move on as roster spots become increasingly valuable.

Wright’s next catch will be his first as a pro, further capping his ability to make the most of his snaps. I certainly prefer the Week 10 usage surprise of Audric Estimé over Wright the rest of the way, but that’s pretty clear. Akers and Gus Edwards are less obvious names who are closer to meaningful roles that I’m rostering over Wright in redraft formats.

Jerome Ford | CLE (at NO)

Jerome Ford recorded just five touches total in the two weeks leading into the Week 10 bye and seems to have be passed by D’Onta Foreman for the secondary role in this limited offense behind Nick Chubb.

Even if you’re building your roster to include handcuff running backs, Ford isn’t a player I’d roster — with a clear path to work early this season, his next game with 13-plus touches this year will be his first. In filling out my roster, I want to be an injury away from impactful volume and Ford doesn’t check that box.

J.K. Dobbins | LAC (vs. CIN)

I don’t mean to be a bucket of cold water, but there are too many signs to ignore at this point when it comes to J.K. Dobbins’ profile.

After the red-hot start to the season, he’s underachieved in six of seven games and has seen his yards gained per carry before contact come crashing back to Earth. On Sunday against the Titans, he was given 18 more touches and exactly none of them gained more than 12 yards. Gus Edwards returned from injury, and that resulted in Dobbins posting his lowest snap share since Week 3 (66.7%), something that I think is likely to stick.

We aren’t yet at Thanksgiving and Dobbins already has set career marks in carries (141), targets (28), and receptions (24). Fantasy is a game played looking through the windshield and not the rearview; managers doing that are looking for ways to offload this Bolt if at all possible.

The good news is that it should be doable. You can sell Dobbins as a way for the Chargers to play defense with their offense over the next month as they play nothing but offenses with high upside (Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs). You’re playing him until the wheels fall off, but I’d be happy to take a Brian Robinson Jr.-type back in a deal if it’s available.

Joe Mixon | HOU (at DAL)

Joe Mixon posted his worst boom/bust rate of the season on Sunday night (six carries that failed to gain yardage and none that gained 10+) with easily his lowest mark in terms of yards per carry after contact. Signs of fatigue for a 28-year-old running back who has 24+ rush attempts in four straight games?

I think there’s some of that, but he’s been able to hold up. If Nico Collins returns to action, I think we could see an ideal situation — less work and more efficiency. From a week-to-week point of view, I’m not the least bit worried about Mixon on Sunday. But consider yourself warned that there are some warning signs to consider as you look to build an optimal playoff roster.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (at NYJ)

It didn’t take Jonathan Taylor long to take advantage of a strong matchup against the Bills last week, as he ripped off a 59-yard gain in the first quarter and cleared 100 yards on the ground before halftime. He now has the fourth-most rushing yards in Colts history, and I think he’s a long way from done.

He gets another vulnerable AFC East run defense this week (bottom-10 in EPA and against third-down rushing attempts), and after Joe Flacco was intercepted on two of his first five passes last week, a conservative, Taylor-centric offense this week wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

JT hasn’t really won you many weeks by himself (one top-10 finish), but with five top-20 finishes, he’s doing his part in keeping your team competitive. He’s an RB1 in all formats for me this week, and for leagues that extend into Week 18, we could be looking at a late-season run that alters leagues (Week 17-18: at Giants, vs. Jaguars).

Jordan Mason | SF (vs. SEA)

We entered Week 10 hopeful that Jordan Mason’s standalone value would remain while Christian McCaffrey was gradually eased back into action for a team with its eyes set on January.

We were wrong.

Mason was on the field for just 4.9% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps, while CMC carried 13 times and earned seven targets. On the bright side, there is no guessing for Week 11 — Mason is one of the top five handcuff running backs in the NFL and needs to remain rostered. However, he has zero chance of being ranked as a Flex-worthy option as long as McCaffrey is active.

We can discuss Mason’s lack of versatility (just 6.9% of his touches this season have been receptions) and its impact on how the 49ers’ offense functions should he be given the opportunity to lead this backfield another time, he’s nowhere near your starting lineup this week.

Josh Jacobs | GB (at CHI)

Josh Jacobs entered the Week 10 bye having overachieved in a significant way in three straight weeks (58.5 PPR fantasy points with a 44.2-point expectation). With our custom elusive rating screaming, Green Bay’s bellcow seems to be poised to put fantasy teams on his back for the second half of the season.

Chicago’s defense as a whole has been good for over a calendar year now, but they rank among the cellar dwellers in terms of yards per carry allowed after contact, and that profiles as a problem against an offense that can spread you out with a variety of viable pass catchers.

We’ve seen running backs without the benefit of offensive balance produce in this spot (Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard combined for 44 PPR points against the Bears, 26.3% over expectation), and with Jacobs rested off the bye, I see no reason why he should be labeled as anything other than a rock-solid starter.

His usage in the passing game has been spotty, but with Green Bay favored, a fifth game this season with 18+ carries is very much in play. That should be enough to justify my confidence in him.

Justice Hill | BAL (at PIT)

With Keaton Mitchell back (one offensive snap last week but on the field for the first time), you can officially move on from Justice Hill if you haven’t already. The idea of having a viable pass-catching back next to Derrick Henry is logical, but this team is too good for that role to get enough work to matter in fantasy leagues.

Mitchell’s return muddies the situation should the machine that is Henry somehow get hurt, thus eliminating your one primary reason for rostering Hill at this point. He’s a good player that matters to the Ravens — but not to fantasy managers in any format.

Kareem Hunt | KC (at BUF)

Let’s call it what it is — Kareem Hunt is a volume play. That may not sound like a glowing endorsement and, long term, it’s not. But for the short term, there’s no reason to jump off of the Hunt Express. That’s now five straight games with over 20 touches, a role that is near impossible to find and lands him inside the top 20 of my rankings regardless of matchup.

Do I think his 10 targets from last week are sticky? Not even close, he had a total of eight looks prior, but it was good to see. More important than the volume of looks was from where they came — four were in the red zone. The Bills are the 11th-best EPA rush defense in the league, but with a league-low aDOT, what we saw last week gives me hope that, even if inefficient, Hunt can give us viable numbers in the game of the week.

Moving off of Hunt for any piece that is a Flex option for the rest of the season would be my play with Isiah Pacheco trending toward his return. But with that information well-known and your league mates unlikely to part with an impactful piece for a rental, I’m planning on riding out this production for as long as I can.

Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at PIT)

Keaton Mitchell saw his first offensive snap of the season on Thursday after averaging 8.7 yards per touch in his shortened rookie season; then he was done for the night. His being active is good to see and makes this Ravens team even scarier, but for fantasy purposes, there’s no reason to get caught up in 2024.

Is he a name to keep track of in the summer? He certainly is. Many managers look at the stat line from the previous season when building out rankings, and those people might not even remember that Mitchell exists. We’ve seen Derrick Henry-centric offenses give significant snaps to a secondary running back in the past, but that happened when the game script dictated as much — that doesn’t happen these days in Baltimore.

Justice Hill has caught 90% of his targets this season, giving Mitchell no projectable path to meaningful touches, even if deemed fully healthy.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at SF)

Kenneth Walker III entered this season with the profile of a home run-hitting running back who would struggle for stretches, in part due to a lack of versatility, but was a threat to make your day with a single carry.

While I don’t think the early season injury is lingering, the first 10 weeks have looked nothing like what we expected. Exactly zero of his 129 touches have gained 30 yards this season, and yet he’s been a steady asset. How, you might ask?

Despite two missed games, he already has set a career-high in receptions. Not only does he look comfortable in this role, but it could expand moving forward if Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role extends down the field a bit.

Walker bailed you out in the first meeting with the 49ers by catching all eight of his targets (14 carries for 32 yards). This development has elevated his healthy floor to that of an RB2. In the preseason, I would have feared this matchup, and I still do to a degree (-0.03 yards per carry before contact over his past two games). But with the catch count stabilizing, there’s no reason to pivot off of Seattle’s RB1.

Khalil Herbert | CIN (at LAC)

Due to the struggles on the defensive end, the Bengals need to be close to flawless on the offensive end. I mean, we just saw them finish four of their final seven possessions with a touchdown and lose. The margin for error is so thin for this team, and that simply doesn’t give them the luxury of a new player into a meaningful role.

Khalil Herbert mishandled the ball on one of his two snaps on Thursday night and doesn’t need to be held onto right now. That said, if you have an 8-2 team and are looking for a luxury stash, go ahead — he’s probably one injury away from a strong role on an elite offense. Outside of that, however, I’d pass until we see proof that he’s going to assume even the role that once belonged to Zack Moss.

Kyren Williams | LAR (at NE)

Kyren Williams being held out of the end zone in consecutive games felt like an impossibility in September, but here we are. Efficiency has been a major issue in this profile all season long (-0.09 EPA per rush this season), but we’ve been willing to overlook it because the touchdowns felt like a birthright.

But now? Now we have some problems. Williams is still a weekly starter without much question because the role inside the 10-yard line is all his, and we trust this offense to move the ball. But the rushing résumé isn’t all that impressive.

• Consecutive games without a 10-yard rush
• Yards per carry before contact are down 24.3% from last season
• Yards per carry after contact are down 26.2% from last season

Williams sits closer to RB15 than RB5 for me this week and moving forward, something that felt impossible less than a month ago.

MarShawn Lloyd | GB (at CHI)

MarShawn Lloyd has been designated for return (ankle) and that gives the Packers a three-week window to activate the rookie. I think he can be additive to their postseason dreams, but asking him to matter in fantasy circles is a lot.

Not only has Josh Jacobs enjoyed plenty of success through 10 weeks, Emanuel Wilson (4.6 yards per carry with a 75% catch rate) has had a positive impact. Lloyd might work his way into the RB2 role in this offense, but the fact that it’s a conversation means that we’d be looking at a committee situation if Jacobs were to go down.

At this point in the season, I’m only rostering players in a spot to produce now or step into a meaningful role should a single injury occur – Lloyd doesn’t check either box in my eyes.

Najee Harris | PIT (vs. BAL)

An ankle injury is nagging at Najee Harris early this week — that is a situation that requires our attention. Fantasy managers have been enjoying a strong season from Pittsburgh’s RB1, one that has featured more consistency than we’ve seen in years past.

After punching in a touchdown against the Commanders last week, he now has seven straight games with a score or multiple receptions, a profile that is going to bear fantasy fruit more often than not. We saw Harris show out against these Ravens in Week 18 last season (133 yards and a touchdown), but he’s running into the lone strength of this Baltimore defense. That brings in week-ruining potential.

In Washington last weekend, Harris produced 26.7% below fantasy expectations, his worst showing since September, and that came in a game in which he scored (2.5 yards per carry and zero targets).

I have Harris ranked as a low-end RB2 right now, and that’s under the assumption that this ankle injury isn’t overly prohibitive when it comes to his practice status late this week. If that’s not the case, he’ll fall down to a middling Flex rank. For those looking to set lineups ahead of time, I’d rather take my chances on a Cedric Tillman or Jauan Jennings type to round out my starting lineup over Harris right now.

Nick Chubb | CLE (at NO)

It’s OK. It’s OK to root for Nick Chubb. His recovery story is a good one, and he’s generally a fun player to watch. At this point, however, your investment has to end there until we see him produce anything close to the elite form that comes to mind when you hear his name.

Entering the Week 10 bye, there were 56 running backs with at least 40 carries this season. Chubb ranked 56th in boom/bust rate (the difference in the percentage of carries gaining at least 10 yards and the percentage of carries failing to gain yardage: -31%).

That might not be entirely Chubb’s fault (he ranks 49th on that list in percentage of carries against a loaded box, Jerome Ford ranks 56th), but for purposes of setting a lineup, I really don’t care where the blame lies.

Could Chubb peak down the stretch of this season? It’s possible given the schedule, but this is a running back approaching his 29th birthday, who plays for a dead team and is a UFA this summer — I’m not optimistic.

Raheem Mostert | MIA (vs. LV)

Raheem Mostert has cleared 30 receiving yards in consecutive games, but his role is trending in the wrong direction and his status as a roster-worthy player might not be here to stay.

Dolphins RB snap shares, Week 10:

• De’Von Achane: 69.8%
• Jaylen Wright: 17%
• Mostert: 15.1%

With Tua Tagovailoa back under center, there is a premium put on speed and tempo, boxes that Achane and Wright check at a higher level than the veteran. There is some scoring equity to chase here, but that’s a dangerous way to live at your Flex spot in a three-back committee that is happy to throw the ball.

Mostert is an injury away from holding Flex value, and that keeps him off of waiver wires for now. However, as we come down the stretch, this isn’t the type of player that needs to be held onto.

Ray Davis | BUF (vs. KC)

Since burying the New York Jets in Week 6 with James Cook sidelined, Ray Davis hasn’t played more than 23% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in a single game. He’s the clear handcuff in this offense, and there is value in that if you have a good team that is positioning itself for a deep playoff run.

However, if your team is clawing for every win to qualify for the postseason, you might be forced to make a tough call on a player like Davis. There’s no path to stand-alone value as long as Cook is healthy, and with that currently the case, cutting Davis is reasonable if you’re trying to maximize your Week 11 roster.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs. LAR)

Rhamondre Stevenson produced 47% under expectations against the Bears last week, his worst effort since Week 3 against the Jets. He does have five RB1 finishes this season, but his other games have been on the fringe of usability, and that makes him a volatile option that is better Flexed than anything else.

Over his past four games, Stevenson has run 57 times for 156 yards (2.7 yards per carry). Over that stretch, he is not one of the 104 players with a run gaining at least 12 yards. This isn’t an offense I want to bet on if at all possible, but the lead role is Stevenson’s without much concern, and that makes him a low-end starter in most spots.

Rico Dowdle | DAL (vs. HOU)

Ezekiel Elliott likely fumbled away his vulture duties last week, and that positions Rico Dowdle to rank as a fantasy starter every week, albeit a low-end one given the limitations of this offense under Cooper Rush. Mike McCarthy confirmed as much on Thursday:

There is no more running back by committee in Dallas. Mike McCarthy said Rico Dowdle is the Cowboys lead back: “Definitely, you have to get him the ball. That's my focus to continue to get him opportunities. He's the lead back.”

— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) November 14, 2024

Dowdle is coming off his worst showing of the season in terms of production relative to expectations (-30.8%), and the upside is certainly capped with none of his 83 carries gaining 20 yards this season.

That said, volume isn’t easy to find this time of year, and Dowdle should at least offer that this week as Dallas attempts to keep Houston’s offense off the field.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. WAS)

There were no reverse hurdles last week against the Cowboys, but I’d argue that his gaining yardage on 92.9% of his carries is more impactful than a single highlight.

Do I love the fact that Saquon Barkley has been held under 15 receiving yards in four of his past five games or that he has scored just three times on 119 touches after opening his Eagles career with five scores on 73 touches?

No, but that’s nitpicking. Barkley is to be viewed as a locked-and-loaded RB1 with the potential to lead the position in scoring in any given week. The Commanders allow the fourth-most yards per carry this season, making a repeat of his ultra-efficient Week 10 very possible.

Tank Bigsby | JAX (at DET)

Tank Bigsby continues to play through an ankle injury and that is prohibitive for a player that was producing splash plays with regularity earlier this season. He was in and out of the lineup last week, and unless we get a clean health report from practices down the stretch, it’s hard for me to get behind Flexing Bigsby given this offense’s limitations.

Over the past three weeks, 100% of Bigsby’s rushing yards have come after contact — this ankle injury is clearly limiting his ability to hit holes that quickly disappear. As things stand right now, I’m operating under the assumption that we won’t get clarity on his health, and that means he’s outside of the Flex conversation for me in Week 11.

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs. MIN)

Tony Pollard has multiple catches in every game this season and at least four targets six times. I’d value his versatility more if his backup didn’t also pose a threat in the passing game, thus leaving us a coin-flip as to who gets the most usage in that regard. As for the run game …

Titans rushing production, Week 10:

• Pollard: Nine carries for 44 yards
• Tyjae Spears: Seven carries for 47 yards
• Will Levis: Five carries for 41 yards

Pollard is a low-end Flex play for me this week in a tough spot (MIN: sixth-best EPA defense against the run) with Spears again making this a committee situation. He’s my preferred back in Tennessee at this point, though that’s a bit damning with faint praise in an offense projected to score under 18 points on Sunday.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at DET)

Travis Etienne Jr. was on the field for 67.4% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps last week, his first game north of 50% since September. The fantasy box score (43 yards on 12 touches) looks much different if his one-yard TD plunge isn’t overturned, but that is the nature of doing business in an offense like this.

Tank Bigsby is dealing with an ankle injury that continues to pull him out of games for extended stretches, and that opens up the door for fringe Flex-worthy volume. If Bigsby is limited, Etienne’s versatility could prove very valuable in a spot where the Jags figure to be playing from behind from the jump.

I don’t love the fact that he doesn’t have a game with more than 13 carries this season, as the team has seemed unwilling to commit to the run, but if Bigsby’s injury forces their hand, I could be talked into moving Etienne inside of my top 25.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs. MIN)

After missing three straight games, Tyjae Spears was on the field for a season-high 47.1% of the Titans’ offensive snaps. It’s an interesting development but not one that requires action on your part just yet. We are through 10 weeks, and the next time Spears reaches 11 expected PPR points will be his first. I’m going to need proof that this team views him as a back capable of handling reasonable volume before plugging him in.

That said, his 78.8% career catch rate and this franchise telling us that they value what he can do out of the backfield in space makes Spears an interesting DFS punt play in a tournament setting. I’m not going overboard on him, but if he’s on the field for half of their snaps and the aggressive Vikings force checkdowns in bulk, this is the type of player who could turn his 6-8 touches into 15 PPR points.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at DEN)

Thank you. Thank you, Tyler Allgeier.

Ever since Bijan Robinson was drafted, we’ve been begging for him to get a bellcow workload, and we may finally get there after Allgeier failed to convert not one, not two, but three straight dives from the one-yard line last week.

The cherry on top? Atlanta went to Robinson on fourth down to finish the job, and he used his athleticism to convert. So, thank you, Allgeier, for finally (hopefully) playing yourself out of an annoying role that wasn’t involved enough to play with confidence but was prohibiting Robinson from accessing his ceiling.

Allgeier hasn’t played 37% of Falcons snaps in four straight games, ending his run as a reasonable Flex play. He’s now in the Jordan Mason/Braelon Allen tier of running back, an encouraging player who is one step away from an RB2 ranking but needs not be considered as long as his RB1 is active.

Tyler Goodson | IND (at NYJ)

Tyler Goodson’s touchdown catch was nice to see, and holding him as a Jonathan Taylor handcuff is fine as long as you’re not operating with any hopes of stand-alone value.

In Week 10’s loss, Goodson was on the field for just 13.1% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps, a role that is very rarely going to return anything close to value. Goodson has established himself as the secondary Colts RB to hold over Trey Sermon, but he’s far from a must-hold if you need to add immediate production to the back end of your roster.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at SF)

I spoke of Kenneth Walker’s expanded role, and the simple-minded fantasy manager would hear that and downgrade Zach Charbonnet in their rankings. But that’s not you, right? You approach this game of ours with an open mind and the willingness to look at things a bit differently.

At no point this season has Charbonnet looked like a player destined to hold standalone value while Walker is active, and the RB1 showcasing versatility eliminated all thoughts of playing his backup. That sounds like a bad thing, but it’s not.

It has stopped you from trying to force Charbonnet into your Flex spot while also ramping up the expectations of the lead back in Seattle’s offense, a role that we know is Charbonnet’s should Walker get injured.

That’s a net positive. You’re only going to play Charbonnet should Walker sit, and that RB1 role is more valuable now than it was two months ago (Charbonnet averaged 16 carries and 4.5 targets in his two games as the primary back). There is no weekly value to chase here, but we are talking about a top-five handcuff, which holds value as we progress through a long season.