If you’re looking for Week 3 XFL Houston Roughnecks vs. San Antonio Brahmas odds, picks, and predictions, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
Roughnecks vs. Brahmas Week 3 Odds and Betting Lines
The following odds and betting lines for the Roughnecks vs. Brahmas are as of Thursday, March 2, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.
- Point Spread: Roughnecks (-4)
- Moneyline: Roughnecks (-190), Brahmas (+160)
- Over/Under: 36.5 (-110)
Roughnecks vs. Brahmas Picks and Predictions
One of three undefeated teams, the Roughnecks are a fascinating team to wager on. Are they as dominant as they looked in Week 1 versus the Guardians, and in the first, third, and fourth quarters in Week 2? If so, then wow.
I mean, if we remove that six-minute stretch in the second frame of Week 2 versus the Renegades, then Houston has outscored opponents 56-12.
The Roughnecks’ starting QB, Brandon Silvers, is No. 2 with 445 passing yards and tied for first with four passing scores. Their bell-cow RB, Max Borghi, has 121 total yards and two TDs. And their receiving corps includes early standouts Jontre Kirklin and Deontay Burnett, who are both top five in XFL receiving yards.
So what happened during that six-minute stretch versus the Renegades? Houston’s William Likely lost a fumble on a punt return, and then Arlington reached the end zone after converting on two third downs. After Houston punted on a three-and-out on their next possession, Arlington took over and again had to punt . . . and again, Likely lost the ball on the return, leading to another Renegades touchdown.
A highly unusual string of events. An outlier in an otherwise sterling season for the Roughnecks, which arguably have looked like the league’s most balanced team.
There are large and small outliers in most/all games. But Likely was the first player Houston took in last year’s supplemental draft. Clearly, they saw something in him and snagged Likely well ahead of other notable names taken in that draft, including the Sea Dragons’ Josh Gordon, Battlehawks’ Hakeem Butler, and Renegades’ De’Veon Smith.
Likely has game-breaking potential as a kick returner. If the Roughnecks can right the ship on special teams, then wow.
And yet, there’s space to be a bit contrarian. We have to be at this early stage of a reconstituted league. Houston beat up on the hapless Guardians in Week 1 by a score of 33-12. Who else beat up on the Guardians? The Brahmas last weekend, 30-12. Two dominant performances by two teams facing off in Sunday’s nightcap.
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Granted, we can’t merely cherry pick evidence from two games. Houston might be the real deal, and the Brahmas could regress with Jack Coan under center and the inefficient Kalen Ballage leading the backfield (for now). Clearly, the Roughnecks enter this contest with distinct advantages.
But let’s not overstate their 2-0 record. I would argue that Brahmas receivers Jalen Tolliver and Alize Mack form a terrific tandem with 13 catches on 18 targets (72%) through two games. Houston’s four top receivers haven’t been nearly as efficient, reeling in 25 balls on 49 targets (51%).
The Brahmas might have the best offense of any team Houston’s faced, as well as the best defense. The keys are not only Coan, Ballage, Tolliver, and Mack, but also Jacques Patrick. I wrote about Patrick last week. Speed is not his bag, but he might be a slight upgrade over Ballage, who I doubt will crack 3.5 yards per carry across this full season.
In fact, if Ballage continues to labor, and if Patrick cannot leapfrog him on the depth chart, I wouldn’t be shocked if San Antonio signs another RB after this weekend.
For now, I’m more intrigued by their passing game, and whether Tolliver, Mack, T.J. Vasher, Deon Yelder, Fred Brown, Landon Akers, and the rest of their receiving corps can help elevate Coan — and vice versa.
Coan’s sterling 68% completion rate is no fluke. This is a methodically executing offense with quick-strike capabilities (they lead the league with six 20+ yards pass plays). Seven of San Antonio’s nine scoring drives have been eight plays or more. If they can control the clock and continue to exhibit patience in locating big-play opportunities, they have the firepower to come out on top.
The ultimate X-factor in this one might be Borghi, who I’ve pushed since the preseason as a breakout candidate, due to his versatility as a ball carrier and pass catcher. He’s arguably the No. 1 RB in this contest, and if he plays like it, then it’ll be tough to keep the Roughnecks at bay.
This marks the key differentiator. San Antonio is still searching for a consistent running game. Houston apparently has one, at least so far. There’s a decent probability that this trend will continue, giving the Roughnecks a strong shot at a 6+ point victory.
- Recommended Point Spread Bet: Roughnecks (-4)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Roughnecks (-190)
- Over/Under: Over 36.5 (-110)