Has Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson’s dynasty value dipped in your league after an underwhelming rookie season saw his usage capped in a significant way?
While the numbers didn’t do much for fantasy football managers, there were some encouraging aspects of Johnson’s first season. That makes him an interesting discussion point as 2024 rosters are being assembled.
Roschon Johnson’s Dynasty Outlook
With just 115 touches as a rookie, can we say with confidence that we know much more about Johnson, a fourth-round pick, now than we did during the rookie draft process last summer?
The Texas product is still searching for his first NFL game with more than 10 carries and was used as more of a specialist than anything in 2023, leaving fantasy managers with more questions than answers.
Chicago adding D’Andre Swift this offseason certainly wasn’t a great sign when it comes to the Bears’ perceived confidence in Johnson, though an overhaul of the QB position stands to change this offense in a big way.
Excelling in pass blocking, a strength Johnson entered the league with, and having 29.6% of touches coming through the passing game generally isn’t viewed as the optimal path to fantasy greatness.
Let’s take a deep breath. A rookie capable of earning his way on the field in hard-to-establish-trust spots (i.e. most third-down situations) tells me that the organization is bullish on Johnson’s future. That’s enough to catch my eye, even if the raw production has yet to be seen.
Johnson was used as a third-down option, but he showed well when given the opportunity on first downs …
- Roschon Johnson: 4.8 yards per carry (2.3 before contact)
- Khalil Herbert: 3.7 yards per carry (1.2 before contact)
- D’Onta Foreman: 3.1 yards per carry (0.9 before contact)
Who says he can’t produce on the early downs? There’s not enough on his NFL résumé to consider Johnson a future building block. But many managers want production from Day 1 at the running back position (see Achane, De’Von) given the short shelf life of the position and have already lowered their opinion of Johnson.
MORE: PFN’s Consensus Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
If you’re playing the long game, Johnson’s current asking price should intrigue you. The Bears’ offense is in flux, but it has enough upside to have me searching high and low for cheap exposure.
Swift’s deal runs for three seasons, putting a bell-cow role for Johnson out of the range of projectable outcomes. Of course, a running back with this sort of draft capital could always work his way into an expanded role as he continues to impress, especially in backing up a starter with durability concerns during his professional career.
Johnson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Johnson land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Johnson lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Kyle Soppe’s Top 40 RB Rankings
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) James Cook | BUF
9) Saquon Barkley | NYG
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Tony Pollard | TEN
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
17) Josh Jacobs | GB
18) D’Andre Swift | CHI
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Aaron Jones | MIN
21) Austin Ekeler | WAS
22) Tyjae Spears | TEN
23) Joe Mixon | HOU
24) Nick Chubb | CLE
25) Najee Harris | PIT
26) David Montgomery | DET
27) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
28) Jaylen Warren | PIT
29) Raheem Mostert | MIA
30) Derrick Henry | BAL
31) Khalil Herbert | CHI
32) James Conner | ARI
33) Kendre Miller | NO
34) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
35) Roschon Johnson | CHI
36) Dameon Pierce | HOU
37) Tank Bigsby | JAX
38) J.K. Dobbins | LAC
39) AJ Dillon | GB
40) Miles Sanders | CAR
Should You Trade Johnson in Dynasty?
In dynasty leagues, the RB position is devalued, thus making lottery tickets like Johnson of interest to me.
There is little risk involved with holding onto Johnson (or inquiring about him in the trade market), and those are the players I load my bench with — especially at this position where variance is the name of the game.
START TRADING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
Sometimes you have to embrace the unknown in dynasty leagues, and I believe this is one of those situations.
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