Quarterbacks defined the 2024 NFL Draft, and Week 6 saw five of them start, the most in any week this season. Below we rank the performances of the rookie quarterbacks to date using Pro Football Network’s QB+ metric.
This molds stats that include success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production, along with a “clutch” metric based on production in certain scores and situations.
Jayden Daniels’ 76.6 QB+ Is One of the Best Since 2019
QB+ dates back to 2019, as far back as some of the situational data is available. Based on that, Jayden Daniels’ 76.6 score is the seventh-best by a rookie since 2019.
Daniels leads the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.28), having posted a positive number in every game so far. Sunday’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens was Daniels’ worst EPA average of the season, but he still posted 0.09 EPA per play. For reference, his worst game is the same as Patrick Mahomes’ season average.
9 for 9 on 4th down this year. JAYDEN DANIELS IS HIM 🔥
(via @Commanders)pic.twitter.com/KkIV1Gv5Xu
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) October 13, 2024
Daniels has particularly excelled against pressure. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 7.8 yards per attempt when pressured and has been able to use his legs in those situations as well. Daniels has scrambled for a league-best 257 yards, more than 100 yards clear of any other player (Kyler Murray is second with 150).
Daniels remains the prohibitive favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year and an MVP candidate with the Washington Commanders at 4-2.
Caleb Williams Nearing Average With 45.4 QB+ After Improving Each Week
Caleb Williams had his best game of the season in Week 6, throwing four touchdowns and going 23-of-29 passing in the Chicago Bears’ 35-16 drubbing of the Jacksonville Jaguars in London.
That fits a trend for Williams, who has seen his EPA per play improve every week, peaking at 0.50 against the Jaguars. Williams averaged -0.27 EPA per dropback from Weeks 1-3, the fourth-worst over that span. But since Week 4, the first overall pick has averaged 0.33 EPA per dropback, the fourth-best over that span.
Williams has particularly excelled when the Bears’ pass protection keeps him clean. He ranks eighth in EPA per dropback when kept clean (0.29) compared to last when he’s pressured (-0.76). He’s been pressured at the 10th-lowest rate to date (29.9%), a big factor in his improving play.
Drake Maye’s 3-Touchdown, 2-Interception Game in First Start Grades Out as Average
Drake Maye had a relatively middling traditional stat line in his first start in Week 6 against the Houston Texans. He did throw three touchdowns for 243 yards but also threw a pair of picks in a decisive 41-21 loss.
QB+ ultimately views Maye as roughly average with a 54.5 score for that game. The saving grace for Maye was his situational execution, which goes into the clutch score. Maye threw a 40-yard touchdown to Kayshon Boutte with just 11 seconds left in the first half, an example of great end-of-half execution.
Drake Maye’s 40-yard bomb to Kayshon Boutte was the longest TD by air yards for the #Patriots since Week 16, 2022.
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) October 13, 2024
Of course, three turnovers are tough to stomach, leading to -0.42 EPA per play. Maye profiles as the type of quarterback who will be extremely volatile from play to play, delivering plenty of both high-end highlights and game-changing mistakes. The balance he ultimately strikes between those two will determine his success as a player.
Spencer Rattler Throws 2 Interceptions in Uneven First Start
Rattler ended up with a 45.5 QB+ score on Sunday, the lowest through the 1 p.m. ET window in Week 6. He completed 22 of his 40 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown but also threw two interceptions in the New Orleans Saints’ 51-27 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Spencer Rattler's first drive as a pro
Play 1: explosive pass on the move
Play 2: fumbled snap, 5 yard loss
Play 3: underneath completion, forced fumble, scoop and score pic.twitter.com/7CWr2uMahR— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 13, 2024
Rattler ended up with a -0.43 EPA per play, which ranks as the fifth-worst game by a Saints starting quarterback over the last five seasons. The rookie fifth-rounder struggled particularly in the red zone, where he produced -0.66 EPA per play due to two sacks taken.
Overall, Rattler needs to minimize the negative plays moving forward, even if it comes at the expense of some of his playmaking. Rattler was only pressured 15 times on 48 dropbacks but still took five sacks. His 23.1% sack rate when pressured would rank 20th over the course of a full season.
Bo Nix Flails With 5.5 Yards Per Attempt
Bo Nix’s QB+ score entering Week 6 was 32.0, the lowest for any rookie quarterback. That checks out given his status as one of the least effective starters in the league entering his Week 6 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Nix ranks 30th with 5.5 yards per attempt, ahead only Deshaun Watson and the benched Jacoby Brissett. At times he has looked like a caricature of his scouting report, which suggested that he would pepper checkdowns due to his short-area accuracy.
On throws of more than five air yards – not a big ask! – Nix is completing a woeful 38% of his passes. The only quarterbacks to post a worst completion percentage on those throws in a full season since 2007:
- 2017 DeShone Kizer (37.9%)
- 2011 Tim Tebow (37.0%)
- 2009 JaMarcus Russell (35.5%)
That’s as poor a quarterback company as you can hope to keep, and Nix needs to inch closer towards “below-average” territory to become a viable starter. With a short turnaround to Denver’s Thursday night game at the New Orleans Saints, the Broncos may experience more growing pains before Nix gets better.