After a few weeks of clarity, giving fantasy football managers a rest from the headaches of choosing which Bucs RB to trust, we are back at it again, debating who to start in this convoluted timeshare between Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. Matching up against a vulnerable New York Giants defense, out of Jones or Fournette, who can you trust, or should you attempt to stay away from this situation entirely moving forward?
Likely if you waited until now to make your decision on who to start, due to it being a Monday Night Football game, you are almost out of other options. However, I think that there might not be a wrong choice, even if one does feel “safer” than the other.
When Fournette was out with an injury, Ronald Jones’ fantasy outlook improved
Ronald Jones had been looking terrific on the ground the past several weeks when seeing workhorse style touches; he has made the most of the situation. Starting Week 4, Jones got off to a hot streak while uncontested in the backfield and rattled off three-straight 100 yards rushing performances.
During that stretch, Jones rushed 60 times for 330 yards (5.5 avg) and scored two rushing touchdowns. He also caught 11 of his 16 receptions for 44 yards. Jones averages 20.1 fantasy points per game during that stretch, top-five in the NFL in PPR formats.
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Jones was also able to be on the field more often. During that stretch, he played on average 63.6% of the team’s offensive snaps. However, what became apparent during that time was his lack of skills in the passing game. Between missed blocks or just dropped passes, Jones showed why he could be taken off the field at times when they want to run a pass-heavy attack. This leads to what happened last week when Leonard Fournette made his return.
Leonard Fournette’s fantasy outlook improved when he returned in Week 7 and took over the RB1 role
In his first game back with the team in several weeks, Bucs RB Leonard Fournette led the team in snaps (56% to 43%), opportunities (18 to 15), yards (97 to 36), and was tied for third in targets on the team (7).
According to head coach Bruce Arians, Fournette has taken over the “nickel” role from LeSean McCoy, using him in hurry-up and clear passing situations.
I will fully admit that Fournette has been a disappointment this season. He only has 35 carries all year for 173 yards and two touchdowns in five games with the Buccaneers. However, Week 7 might be the coming-out party for Fournette. Back to full-strength, Fournette showed what made his so special last year in Jacksonville, where he had the best season of his career while showing off his versatility.
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The key for Fournette is volume. Both times he has seen at least nine opportunities, he has turned those into performances of 116 total yards and the 97-yard game we saw in Week 7.
Fournette might be one of the better buy-lows in fantasy. Don’t get me wrong; Jones has been very good this year. However, I don’t believe he is as good of an all-around running back as Fournette, and I believe the trend of Fournette getting the passing down work will continue. Yes, Arians will ride the hot hand to a certain extent, but with receptions averaging nearly a full point better than a carry, give me the guy who has the passing game locked down on his team, especially in PPR formats.
What to do with Bucs RB Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette in fantasy for Week 8, and can you feel confident in either?
I don’t think you can go wrong with either guy here, honestly. Even if Jones sees the majority of first and second down work, I expect the Buccaneers to have the ball the majority of the night, leading to ample opportunities. The same can be said for Fournette, who will get at least six to seven targets, partially due to the absence of Chris Godwin tonight.
When looking at the matchup tonight, the Giants are an interesting defensive unit; while they are 19th in DVOA, they allow ninth-most points to opposing running backs with 25.51 per game. New York ranks eighth in Defense Points Against Consistency (DPAC) with a score of 11.85, meaning they are consistently giving up fantasy points to running backs.
The Giants have been better against the run, allowing just 3.93 yards per carry on the season, 11th-lowest in football. Despite six running backs seeing 12-plus carries, only one of them has been able to crack the 100-yard barrier, so it has not been a smash spot on the ground.
Through the air is a different story, as the 1.85 PPR points per target the Giants have allowed to running backs is the second-highest mark in football. Five running backs have been able to put up 39-plus receiving yards against them this year. Knowing Fournette ran 25 routes last week while Jones ran just 15, Fournette has the higher upside of the two players in Week 8.
While both the Bucs RBs are startable, I prefer the ceiling and future of Leonard Fournette over Ronald Jones in fantasy, but they are both capped as mid-RB2s thanks to the consistent and frustrating usage of the other.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.