Green Bay Packers WR Romeo Doubs showed the ability to make the most of his 6’2” frame and pretty clearly developed a connection with Jordan Love. As Green Bay’s offense looks to level up once again, is the fantasy football industry giving him enough credit? Or are there simply too many mouths to feed for the third-year receiver to establish himself as a weekly option?
Romeo Doubs’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 172(109 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 63
- Receiving Yards: 679
- Receiving TDs: 7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Doubs This Year?
In the simplest form of breaking this down, Doubs is worth a look in the 11th round based on cost-benefit analysis. The Packers were the only team to put three receivers in the top 25 at the position in end-zone targets, a dispersion of opportunities that suggests taking the cheapest of those options is the way to go.
Romeo Doubs pic.twitter.com/tljPwqubL0
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 1, 2024
I don’t disagree with that sentiment. Green Bay ranked 10th in pass rate over expectation, a mark that I’m labeling as more likely to improve than regress given that we have a better feel as to what Love brings to the table now than we did 12 months ago.
Doubs being used as a red-zone threat is nothing new. He scored 20 times in his final 20 collegiate games and came into the league with a plus grade for his strong hands.
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The scoring opportunities are here to stay, and that, at the very least, will put him on your radar in times of desperation where a touchdown can bail you out.
There will be a time and a place to play Doubs, but I do worry about his profile a little bit. Given the depth of the position, I’ve been landing elsewhere in this range (Rashid Shaheed and Khalil Shakir being my two most common clicks).
Yards After the Catch Per Reception
- Dontayvion Wicks: 5.4
- Jayden Reed: 5.2
- Christian Watson: 3.8
- Romeo Doubs: 2.3
The NFL-wide aDOT (average depth of target) has been trending down for five years now, a trend I like to continue as defenses are begging offenses to take the short pass instead of trying to break open the game with the deep ball.
If that’s the case, Doubs’ profile doesn’t include consistency, and that’s concerning. That would make him a touchdown-reliant option. While he has the talent to thrive in that role, we did see Doubs’ usage change during the second half of last year as Reed’s star began to truly shine.
End-Zone Targets
- Weeks 1-8: 10 in 7 games
- Weeks 9-18: 5 in 10 games
If you’re betting on Reed, to a degree, you’re betting against Doubs (and the inverse is true). If that’s your stance, by all means, embrace the cheap price tag and chase the breakout season — it’s just not the position I’m taking.
I happen to think Reed is the real deal. He ranked fourth among qualified receivers in fantasy production above expectation last season, and I have him labeled as an alpha. There’s more than enough room for a second receiver in Green Bay’s offense to succeed, but if I’m right with Reed being the unquestioned top option, we have three viable WRs vying for secondary looks.
That’s a thin profile. With Shakir in Buffalo, he’s battling far less talent than what Doubs has to compete with, and Shaheed seems to be a pretty clear second option in New Orleans next to Chris Olave.
The peaks will be fun, but they may not matter. Last season, once bye weeks came into play (the portion of the schedule in which you’re in a spot to consider a player like Doubs), he had one weekly finish better than WR30.
I do like the Packers as a team when taking shots late. The aforementioned Wicks and MarShawn Lloyd are both going at least a round, and usually more, after Doubs — sign me up.
Wicks has been talked up non-stop during the summer, while Lloyd has a chance to carve out a niche behind Josh Jacobs, who has cleared 260 touches in five straight seasons.