Chicago Bears WR Rome Odunze enters the NFL with elite draft capital and an excellent prospect profile. By all accounts, he should be a very good wide receiver in the NFL for a long time. However, as a rookie, he’s not in the best situation to succeed immediately. Should fantasy football managers invest in Odunze?
Rome Odunze’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The 2024 rookie wide receiver class has a clear big three. While Odunze is a notch below Malik Nabers — and another notch below Marvin Harrison Jr. — those three WRs are significantly better than the rest of the crop. In most years, though, Odunze would be the WR1 of his class.
Odunze enters the NFL after four years at Washington. He improved every year of his collegiate career. In his senior season, he caught 92 passes for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The combination of Odunze’s college production and draft capital makes it unlikely he will fail at the NFL level. It would not shock me if he is a WR1 in fantasy by 2026. That’s great for Odunze and his dynasty managers, but it doesn’t help us specifically in the 2024 season. This year, Odunze may very well find himself in a target squeeze.
The Bears completely revamped their offense this offseason. They have a new quarterback in Caleb Williams, a new running back in D’Andre Swift, and two new wide receivers in Odunze and Keenan Allen. They also return WR DJ Moore, who enters his second year with the team, and fifth-year TE Cole Kmet.
Before C.J. Stroud last season, no rookie QB had ever supported two top-36 fantasy receivers. Stroud gave us two top-24 receivers. All it took was one of if not the greatest season ever by a rookie quarterback.
Williams is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. He’s a better prospect than Stroud was. However, that doesn’t mean he will immediately be as good as Stroud was last season.
Furthermore, even if Williams is that good right away, even Stroud didn’t produce three top-36 receivers. That is essentially what anyone drafting Odunze is asking him to do.
Moore is the team’s WR1. He’s incredibly talented and firmly in his prime. Allen is old and will likely take a backseat to Moore, but he’s also coming off the best season of his career. Allen finished as the overall WR3 last season and has shown zero signs of decline. It’s hard to envision Odunze playing ahead or earning targets over Allen.
Although Allen projects to play the slot in three-receiver sets, he almost certainly will be the guy opposite Moore in two-receiver sets. That means Odunze, as talented as he may be, is unlikely to be a full-time player this season.
Odunze is very likely to start the season slow. His snap share may be in the 60-70% range. That is not going to get him into the fantasy starter range.
If you’re drafting Odunze, you are banking on one of two things. Football is a dangerous sport. Injuries happen all the time, and 32-year-old wide receivers are especially susceptible. Odunze steps into the WR2 role if Moore or Allen misses time, significantly increasing the rookie’s fantasy potential.
Alternatively, Williams and Odunze could follow natural rookie progression where they start to figure things out over the second half of the season. Odunze may average no more than 6-8 points per game over the first 2-3 months of the season. But during the stretch run, he could be a weekly WR2. That’s certainly within his range of outcomes.
While it’s possible Odunze becomes an impact player as a rookie, it is nearly impossible for Williams to support three top-36 WRs. Odunze’s average draft position (ADP) is WR46, No. 106 overall. I get the upside. I am all for chasing the ceiling. But that price is a bit too expensive for my liking.
Odunze is my WR41. While that’s not far from his current ADP, his price among WRs is less of a problem than his overall price. A seventh-round pick is an awfully high cost for a rookie WR playing with a rookie QB with two extremely talented receivers ahead of him on the depth chart.
