Robert Tonyan could be set to breakout with the help of Aaron Rodgers

Most people who aren’t fans of the Green Bay Packers probably didn’t know who tight end Robert Tonyan was before the 2020 NFL season. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that some still aren’t familiar with his name. Nevertheless, Tonyan had a breakout year last season, and the advanced metrics indicate that there could be more to come from him in the next few years.

Robert Tonyan grew into an elite tight end in his third season with the Packers

Tonyan often finds himself overshadowed thanks to sharing the field with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. After all, Rodgers did win MVP in 2020, and both players earned first-team All-Pro nominations. However, looking at Tonyan’s box score statistics reveals that he had an excellent year in his own right.

During his third NFL season, Tonyan caught 52 passes for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns. Those numbers are highly competitive when compared to the rest of the NFL. His yardage total ranked 13th among all qualifying tight ends last season. Additionally, his touchdowns ranked second and were tied for fifth among all players regardless of position.

That’s a remarkable performance for a player who had totaled just 177 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons.

The advanced metrics cast Tonyan in an even more favorable light

Tonyan’s box score statistics are excellent, but his advanced metrics were arguably even better. To illustrate that fact, let’s turn to the Offensive Value Metric (OVM). The OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to evaluate players based on how much they contribute to their own statistical success and the overall success of the offense.

Tonyan earned the highest overall OVM grade of any tight end in 2020 (41.55). That was also the second-highest grade earned by any player, regardless of position.

Grades that high indicate that, even while surrounded by elite talent, Tonyan was a major factor in the success of Green Bay’s offense.

Examining Tonyan’s weekly grades

For a more granular examination of Tonyan’s 2020 performance, let’s examine his OVM grades from each week of the season. In the chart below, you can see those grades represented by the black dots. For comparison, the average grade for tight ends in 2020 is marked by the yellow line.

As you can see, while there were several weeks in which Tonyan wasn’t targeted enough to qualify for a grade, every grade he did earn but one was above league average. Even that grade, a 28.28 performance in Week 8, wasn’t far off.

Meanwhile, several of those grades are well above that average. In fact, looking at every weekly grade earned by any player in 2020, Tonyan holds two spots inside the top nine, with scores of 58.1 and 55.93. On days when Green Bay targeted him often, Tonyan rewarded them with excellent performances.

Tonyan had some of the best advanced metrics in the last several years

To explain why the OVM graded Tonyan so highly, we need to look at the advanced metrics involved in calculating a tight end’s grade. To start with, Tonyan was among the best in the NFL at creating distance from defenders. He averaged 4.2 yards of separation when targeted — which ranked first among tight ends — and was tied for second among all pass catchers.

All of that space Tonyan created contributed to another area in which he performed at an elite level: his catch percentage. In 2019, Tonyan caught 88.14% of his targets, which led the league by almost 10%. In fact, that was the highest catch percentage of any qualifying wide receiver or tight end in the last five years.

Tonyan wasn’t perfect, though. The one area where he struggled was creating yards after the catch. His average of 4.5 yards were mediocre relative to the league’s other pass catchers.

In truth, that number should have been far better. According to the NFL’s calculations, Tonyan’s average was 1.4 yards lower than it should have been. That was the second-worst differential in the NFL.

Tonyan’s inability to create extra yards doesn’t look good, especially in a league that prioritizes speed and explosiveness more and more with each passing year.

However, it is vital to never underestimate the value of consistency. Tonyan isn’t the flashiest player in the NFL. He might not wind up with his name in the Hall of Fame or the Ring of Honor on the walls of Lambeau Field. However, players like him form the backbone of any championship team.

No matter who starts for the Packers next season, they will be happy to have Robert Tonyan on their side

As you might have heard, Green Bay has found themselves in a tricky quarterback situation. It’s still uncertain whether Rodgers will be suiting up for the Packers in 2021. If he does, Tonyan seems set to have another excellent season in a Packers’ offense that was among the best in the NFL a season ago.

If Rodgers doesn’t return, the situation becomes more complicated. Green Bay would be forced to turn to Jordan Love, and it is difficult to say what sort of synergy the young quarterback would have with Tonyan. That said, Love would undoubtedly be happy to have a player like Tonyan that he can rely on.

Either way, don’t be surprised if we see Tonyan follow up his phenomenal 2020 performance with an equally impressive 2021.

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