After a one-year retirement, Rob Gronkowski returned to the NFL and reunited with future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. He agreed to a one-year contract worth $10 million, finishing as the TE8 in PPR formats. Can Gronkowski meet or exceed that fantasy football finish in 2021 — what does his outlook and ADP suggest?
Rob Gronkowski’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Gronkowski caught 45 of 77 targets for 623 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 16 games. This was a far cry from the statistical production in his prime. From 2011 to 2018, Gronkowski averaged 7.4 targets, 4.8 receptions, 74 receiving yards, and 0.7 touchdowns per game. That came out to an astounding 16.5 PPR fantasy points per contest. That’s impressive for a tight end, considering the volatility of the position in fantasy.
The Buccaneers were proactive this offseason to keep their Super Bowl LV championship-winning team intact. The output from Gronkowski last season is what we can expect in 2021.
Brady and the Buccaneers took much of the regular season to get in sync. Once they did, that momentum propelled Tampa Bay to its first Super Bowl victory since 2002.
Brady’s dominant group of pass catchers, unfortunately, lowers Gronkowski’s fantasy ceiling.
Tampa Bay’s group of wide receivers is the best in the NFL
Wide receiver Mike Evans became the first player to begin their career with seven consecutive seasons of 1,000 or more receiving years. He’s finished as a WR1 in 37% of his 106 active games in PPR formats.
Chris Godwin was coming off of a career season. In 2019, he averaged nearly 20 PPR fantasy points per game. Last season, a host of injuries prevented him from replicating that performance. However, Godwin did average 21 PPR fantasy points per game in his final three outings.
And last but not least, Antonio Brown joined the Buccaneers in Week 9. He averaged 5.6 receptions and 60.4 receiving yards to close out the regular season.
The Buccaneers are loaded at tight end
O.J. Howard will also return this year. Prior to his season-ending Achilles injury in Week 4, he had more targets, receiving yards, air yards, and touchdowns than Gronkowski. As a reminder, Gronkowski blocked more earlier in the season.
Tampa Bay also signed former Bengals running back Giovani Bernard this offseason. He has the potential to become the Buccaneers’ version of James White.
The Buccaneers’ offensive line is one of the best in the NFL
The Buccaneers’ offensive line is projected to be one of the NFL’s top run-blocking/pass-blocking units. Tampa Bay has adequate depth to stabilize the unit should any injuries arise.
It is worth mentioning that Brady was pressured on 17.8% of his dropbacks in 2020. He was also hit 58 times while passing — eighth-most among quarterbacks. I’m sure the Buccaneers’ offensive line would like to allow fewer hits in 2021.
Gronkowski will have some TE1 weeks, but I would not recommend counting on him as your starter every week with the abundance of receiving weapons in Tampa Bay. This could allow Gronkowski to run more routes.
Fantasy projection
Given Gronkowski’s circumstances entering the 2021 season, he projects for around 60 targets, 42 receptions, 540 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. Howard and Cameron Brate will eat into his target share.
Rob Gronkowski’s ADP
Gronkowski’s long-term association with Brady keeps his ADP in the single-digit rounds. He’s available in the ninth round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. In pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, Gronkowski has an ADP of 160.76. Furthermore, Gronkowski’s ADP on Sleeper is 110.9.
Should you draft Gronkowski in 2021?
I’m not going out of my way to select Gronkowski at his ADP. If he falls, then I’d consider it. There are other tight ends available later in fantasy drafts that I’d rather prioritize. Gronk is not an ideal option at tight end in dynasty football formats.
Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, Adam Trautman, Irv Smith, Gerald Everett, and Blake Jarwin are all solid options. You could select two of these tight ends in drafts and stream based on the matchup.