The collective disappointment from fantasy managers regarding the production from the Dallas Cowboys running back position largely came from Tony Pollard’s underwhelming 2023 campaign.
In contrast, Rico Dowdle actually posted a career year last season, which could suggest he is set for an expanded role in 2024.
What can fantasy football managers expect from Dowdle with Pollard no longer on the roster heading into this season?
Rico Dowdle’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
On the surface, Dowdle’s 2023 production is nothing to get exceedingly excited about. His 505 total yards and four scores on 106 touches on the highest-scoring offense in the league aren’t bad, but it’s not something that suggests he needs to be a featureback in the immediate future.
Despite a very noteworthy drop in efficiency, Pollard and Dowdle still had the same exact mark of 1.9 yards after contact per attempt. Sure, Dowdle’s 4.08 yards was higher than Pollard’s 3.99, but the latter saw 163 more carries in 2023. This suggests Dowdle wasn’t exactly a much better option on a per-touch basis last year.
Yet, comparing Dowdle’s production to last year’s starting running back feels slightly irrelevant, given Pollard is now a member of the Tennessee Titans. After failing to make any significant additions to this backfield in the 2024 NFL Draft, Dallas decided to bring back long-time Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott to presumably lead this backfield this upcoming season.
This decision comes with some pros and cons. Elliott’s efficiency and rushing yardage output has declined by a considerable margin for three straight seasons. Elliott’s 3.5 yards per carry marks a career low and was the second-lowest mark in the league for any player to see north of 180+ carries in 2023.
The efficiency struggles of Elliott certainly suggests Dowdle could be the most efficient ball carrier in this backfield, which could earn him a larger role than last season in an offense that generated the most trips to the red zone in 2023.
This isn’t a guarantee by any stretch, considering Elliott’s effectiveness as a short-yardage thumper, pass-protection ability, and reliability as a pass catcher. But it does make an expanded role for Dowdle in an explosive offense plausible when assessing his entire range of outcomes in 2024.
Dowdle’s ADP comes as a bit of a surprise at No. 149 overall in the 13th round as the RB45 off the board. For some additional context, Elliott is only coming off the board three rounds earlier with players like Tyjae Spears, Gus Edwards, and Jerome Ford going in between the two Cowboy RBs in fantasy drafts.
The brief glimpses of production from we saw from Dowdle last year paired with Elliott’s drop in efficiency for three consecutive seasons certainly has fantasy managers skeptical about Elliott being the unquestioned bell cow in this productive offense.
Yet, I would caution fantasy managers against completely writing off Elliott. His 51 receptions and effectiveness as a pass blocker still makes him a reliable contributor in passing situations.
Additionally, the one thing we know Elliott can still do at a high level is produce in short-yardage situations — which gives him the inside track to red zone work over Dowdle heading into the year.
Could Dowdle’s efficiency potentially earn him more work in this backfield than expected? Sure, but drafting him very close to Elliott represents a big leap of faith.
Despite seeing the logical path to an expanded role this year, I think Dowdle is a bit too overpriced at this time.