New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson fell short of expectations last season, but let’s not forget that he caught 69 passes on his way to gaining almost 1,500 yards in 2022. Stevenson has a little more backfield competition entering this season than he had last, too. Where does the 26-year-old fall in terms of the RB hierarchy for fantasy football in 2024?
Rhamondre Stevenson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 221 (171 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 981
- Rushing TDs: 6
- Receptions: 50
- Receiving Yards: 330
- Receiving TDs: 1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Stevenson This Year?
The question we are asking of Stevenson is pretty straightforward, but answering it is a little more complicated. Is 2022 or 2023 the real version of him?
Rhamondre Stevenson's career touchdowns pic.twitter.com/s4g1PDMYmI
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) June 20, 2024
The offensive environment last season tanked (New England dropped from 16th in scoring to 31st), and that was prohibitive in terms of Stevenson’s scoring chances. Opportunities are critical if efficiency is going to be a problem.
Stevenson’s season ended after Week 13 last season (ankle sprain). At that point, he ranked 30th at the position in red-zone touches.
A reminder that there are only 32 NFL teams.
How bad is that number for a bell-cow back? Dameon Pierce wasn’t rostered in fantasy leagues past Halloween, and yet, over that stretch, he had two more touches inside the 20-yard line, which includes four fewer appearances.
It’s possible that this New England team bottomed out last season and is set to move in the right direction, though assuming dramatic growth this season isn’t wise. The situation is one thing, but the underlying numbers suggest that we shouldn’t be overly confident in Stevenson himself.
Last season, he ranked 26th of 35 qualified running backs in fantasy production relative to expectation (-8.7%). That’s a one-season sample, but we have Stevenson’s career résumé to evaluate, and the concerns are clear.
PPR Points Per Target
- 2021: 1.46
- 2022: 1.33
- 2023: 1.21
Stevenson’s excellence in the passing game was largely what separated his 2022 from 2023, but it wasn’t the only thing. His yards per carry dipped by 20% a year ago, and the lack of explosion is as clear in the spreadsheets as it is when you’re watching the games.
Percentage of Carries Gaining 10+ yards
- 2021: 15.0%
- 2022: 14.3%
- 2023: 6.4%
The league average last season for running backs was 9.9%, and Stevenson ranked 31st of 35 (ahead of only AJ Dillon, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, and Josh Jacobs). As damning as that stat sounds, it gets worse.
Before his injury, Stevenson ranked 17th in carries, a respectable rank and one that can result in fantasy production if there is just a little bit of upside included.
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The problem is that there was virtually no upside in 2023. There were 77 (!) players, through Week 13, with more carries gaining over 15 yards. Players on that list include Tyson Bagent, Chris Brooks, Tre Tucker, and not one, but two Cincinnati Bengals QBs.
Antonio Gibson was added to the Patriots’ roster this offseason, and while I don’t view him as a true threat to take over the backfield, over 21% of his career touches have come via receptions (43.8% of his yardage).
If you share my belief that Stevenson’s rushing potential is limited — be it because of him or this team or both — Gibson could eat into his one path to mattering every week.
Right now, Stevenson is being drafted as a top-20 RB and coming off the board in Round 6. I have my fair share of questions about all the running backs in this range (Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Najee Harris), making this a spot where I’m fading the position consistently.
The onesie positions have my interest in this neighborhood (Kyler Murray and Evan Engram being my favorites) and if they aren’t there, I’m higher than the market on a trio of receivers (Terry McLaurin, Jayden Reed, and Rashee Rice).
From a roster construction standpoint, I rarely land on a ball carrier in the sixth round. Even if I have to go in that direction, Stevenson doesn’t have my attention.
In my eyes, the best-case scenario here is an empty-calorie type of season, where his 15-18 touches aren’t impactful on a per-opportunity basis, but maybe get you some Flex value through sheer volume. That’s not a best-case scenario that I’m investing in during the first half of drafts.