New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson had some very nice moments as a rookie. Stevenson proved capable of being a true power back and has the talent to be the Patriots’ lead back if necessary. With the Patriots now having quite the crowded backfield, what is Stevenson’s fantasy football outlook for 2022, and should managers target him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Rhamondre Stevenson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
After the Patriots drafted Stevenson in the 2021 NFL Draft, the writing was on the wall for Sony Michel. Had the Rams not traded for Michel, the Patriots likely would have cut him anyway. The plan was always going to be Stevenson as Damien Harris’ primary backup.
Stevenson is a power runner with more wiggle than he gets credit for. Despite being a Day 3 pick, Stevenson looks like the type of running back that can be a starter in the NFL. And as a rookie, he proved himself each time he was asked to step up.
While Stevenson only averaged 9.6 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookied, he mostly did that playing second-fiddle to Harris. In the two games Harris missed that Stevenson did not, Stevenson averaged 16.2 ppg. Those are legitimate RB1 numbers.
Stevenson averaged an impressive five yards per touch and was top 10 in evaded tackles per touch. The biggest knock on Stevenson’s profile is a lack of action in the passing game. He commanded just a 5.5% target share and averaged just three targets per game in his two starts. It’s curious, but definitely welcome, that the Patriots are considering Stevenson as potentially their passing-down back this season.
How the Patriots’ depth chart impacts Rhamondre Stevenson’s fantasy projection for the season
Strap in because this one is a doozy. I’m not sure what to make of the Patriots’ backfield. Harris is their RB1 for now. Stevenson is in his second season. And they signed Ty Montgomery. This sure looked like a backfield that didn’t need any extra support. Instead, the Patriots spent two Day 2 picks on running backs Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris.
Given the Patriots’ history of not necessarily using their rookie RBs much, there’s no reason to think Strong or Harris will have roles as rookies. At the same time, they just drafted them, so one would think they’re not going anywhere.
But the Patriots can’t go into the season with seven running backs. Someone has to go. Probably two guys. Maybe even three.
The Patriots have a history of shuffling through primary backs. Damien Harris is in the final year of his rookie deal and likely won’t be extended. While that matters in the long term, they’re not going to cut Harris in 2022.
Stevenson should open as the Patriots’ RB2 but has upside for more
Stevenson surprisingly finds himself in a more favorable spot than last season. He’s been getting reps in as the passing-down back and working in with the ones. There’s a nonzero chance Stevenson at least splits early down work to some degree with Harris.
At the same time, Stevenson’s Day 3 draft capital makes it very easy for the team to push any other RB ahead of him should they choose to do so.
Stevenson’s ADP for 2022
Stevenson’s ADP is around 129th overall. He’s being drafted as the RB39. At least, that’s what the ADP tells us. In more recent drafts, Stevenson has been rising, while Harris has been falling steadily. Their ADPs are converging, and dare I say, they may flip soon.
Stevenson is our consensus RB36, just one spot behind Harris. However, I’ve made a call on this backfield. I prefer Stevenson. He’s my RB32, while Harris is down at RB41.
I just don’t see Harris ever being utilized as a receiver. As a result, his ceiling is capped. If someone is going to break out, it is more likely to be Stevenson because he won the passing-down role while also having an early-down role. Despite my ranking of Stevenson, I won’t necessarily reach for him. However, I do prefer him to Harris and would gladly take him at or below ADP in fantasy drafts.