New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson was a Rha-monster for stretches of last season. He proved capable of being a three-down back and handling large workloads. There were also stretches where he saw his touches reduced. What is Stevenson’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Rhamondre Stevenson’s Fantasy Outlook
Stevenson may not have been the best value pick in 2022 fantasy drafts, but he was certainly in contention. Even a low-RB2 finish would’ve made him a fantastic return on investment. Instead, he averaged 14.7 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the RB10.
The thing about Stevenson’s 2022 is it was even better than the numbers suggest. He opened the year as Damien Harris’ backup, scoring a total of 10.8 fantasy points over the first two weeks.
Stevenson averaged 18.7 ppg from Weeks 3-13, proving his elite RB1 upside. But Stevenson came with quite a wide range of outcomes last year. The downside was not pretty.
I already pointed out how poorly he performed in Weeks 1 and 2. From Weeks 14-17, Stevenson surrounded a 24.8-point Week 15 effort with games of 3.0, 3.3, and 7.1. Of course, there was a lingering ankle injury that was partially to blame. But Stevenson’s floor was as low as his ceiling was high.
Despite Stevenson’s volatile nature, we cannot deny his incredible efficiency, which looks even better juxtaposed with his incredible volume. His 63% opportunity share was 16th in the league. His 17.3% target share was fourth in the league. Yet, Stevenson still managed an impressive 5.2 yards per touch, 17th in the league.
He also averaged 3.43 yards created per touch, sixth in the league, and a 40% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, third in the league. 7.1% of his carries went for at least 15 yards, the 13th-most in the NFL. This type of efficiency on 279 touches is rare and establishes that Stevenson is really good at football.
Some may argue that Stevenson wasn’t as good last season with Harris in the lineup. That just isn’t true. Stevenson averaged 15.2 ppg with Harris active and 14.7 ppg without him — no difference.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Stevenson at His ADP?
Stevenson enters this season as the unquestioned lead back on a relatively weak Patriots offense. While we prefer running backs on good offenses, Stevenson has a real shot at a three-down role.
There are reports out of Patriots camp that they want to find a way to get Stevenson off the field on third downs. I’m not sure how much of that we should believe. Who exactly is going to play ahead of him? I get the desire to limit his touches, but the Patriots also have to win games.
Forcing inferior players like Ty Montgomery or Pierre Strong onto the field over Stevenson is not going to benefit them. That much became obvious when the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott.
Given all the indicators that the Patriots want to keep Stevenson fresh, they were always going to add a back. All things considered, Elliott is the least damaging to Stevenson’s fantasy value. So much so that after it happened, I didn’t even more him in my rankings.
The biggest source of Stevenson’s fantasy value is his receiving work. While Stevenson is unlikely to repeat his massive target share, he was just short of 15.0 ppg despite scoring only six times. There’s plenty of room for improvement there, even if Zeke takes most of the short yardage and goal line work. At 231 pounds, Stevenson is not going to be pulled every time.
Tony Pollard scored 12 total touchdowns last season in a tandem with Zeke. I would be surprised if Stevenson didn’t at least score more than he did last season.
My projections are quite bullish on Stevenson. I have him carrying the ball 258 times for 1,212 yards and 8.5 touchdowns while adding 61 catches for 411 yards and 1.7 receiving scores. That’s an increase in rushing volume with a slight decrease in receiving volume but with a touchdown rate more consistent with what we should expect.
The RB10 by ADP, No. 25 overall, Stevenson is my RB10 as well. If I choose to take a running back, I am very much in on Stevenson at the Round 2/3 turn.
Once you get past the top five or six running backs, it’s hard to feel supremely confident in anyone else. These are all talented players, but none of them feel like sure things. I’m not saying Stevenson is a sure thing, but he does feel very safe — much safer than a typical third-round running back.
Given the Patriots’ lack of options behind him, Stevenson’s volume is bankable, resulting in a high floor. At worst, he should at least be a mid-RB2. At best, Elliott is nothing more than a backup, Stevenson sees a three-down workload and has an outlier touchdown season, resulting in a top-three finish.