New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson had a bit of an erratic 2023 season that was cut short due to a season-ending injury, leaving fantasy football managers disappointed.
With a new regime, uncertain backfield competition, and an expiring contract, where does Stevenson’s dynasty value stand heading into the offseason?
Rhamondre Stevenson’s Dynasty Outlook
Even after his breakout 2022 season, fantasy managers weren’t fully sold on Stevenson. The biggest criticism was his inability to separate from Damien Harris and the timeshare situation he was mired in with him.
#Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson breaks LOOSE 💨
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 5, 2023
Stevenson averaged 14.7 fantasy points per game in 2022. He finished as the overall RB10. There were games where Stevenson was playing over 80% of the snaps. However, when Harris was active, Stevenson’s snap share dropped back into the 50s. This occurred even after Stevenson had clearly established himself as a vastly superior back.
After the Patriots let Harris walk in free agency, Stevenson was set to be the lead back. While the team signed Ezekiel Elliott, he wasn’t necessarily a threat to Stevenson’s role. No one thought Zeke would take Stevenson’s job. However, he was a threat to Stevenson’s overall volume.
Stevenson’s snap share remained relatively the same in 2023. But being on the field doesn’t matter as much as how frequently a player touches the ball. And Stevenson’s opportunity share dipped from 63.1% to 59.1%.
That alone wouldn’t be enough to negatively impact his fantasy value all that much. The real source of his reduced production was his passing game role.
In 2022, Stevenson saw a 17.4% target share. That dropped to just 12.8% last season. Combine that with a full yard-per-carry decrease from 5.0 to 4.0, and that’s how Stevenson goes from 14.7 points per game to just 12.1 in 2023.
Stevenson had just two games all season with 20+ fantasy points. He finished inside the top 12 running backs three times. By contrast, that’s something he did seven times the year prior.
Now, to be fair, injuries played a part. A high ankle sprain ended Stevenson’s season prematurely, costing him the final five games. But there’s no denying his performance wasn’t quite as good even when healthy.
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Stevenson was an explosive run machine in 2022, with 7.1% of his carries going for 15+ yards. That rate dropped to 1.9% last season. When looked at in totality, it’s even worse. Stevenson had a grand total of three (yes, three!) rushes of 15 yards or more in the entire 2023 season.
His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate dropped from 40.5% in 2022 to 18% in 2023. His yards per touch went from 5.2 to 4.4. Stevenson’s yards created per touch decreased from 3.43 to 3.15. That may not seem like much, but that took him from sixth in the league to 38th. He saw less volume and was less efficient.
Stevenson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Stevenson sit in the dynasty RB landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Stevenson lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) De’Von Achane | MIA
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) Saquon Barkley | PHI
9) Josh Jacobs | GB
10) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
11) Rachaad White | TB
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | CHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Derrick Henry | BAL
18) Tony Pollard | TEN
19) David Montgomery | DET
20) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
21) Joe Mixon | HOU
22) Alvin Kamara | NO
23) Najee Harris | PIT
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Tyjae Spears | TEN
26) James Conner | ARI
27) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
28) Aaron Jones | MIN
29) Zamir White | LV
30) Austin Ekeler | WAS
31) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
32) Nick Chubb | CLE
33) Jerome Ford | CLE
34) Devin Singletary | NYG
35) Gus Edwards | LAC
36) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
Should You Trade Stevenson in Dynasty?
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Stevenson is one of the toughest players to figure out in dynasty. While the Patriots’ offensive line didn’t help as much last season — Stevenson’s yards before contact dropped from 1.6 in 2022 to 1.3 — it’s difficult to make excuses after seeing Elliott perform better after Stevenson went down.
To be fair, a lot of Elliott’s value came from the massive volume he saw. Elliott was used as a three-down back. Stevenson was not. Outside of the truly elite players, in most situations, the running back that sees more volume is going to be the more productive one.
So, what will happen in 2024? Elliott’s contract expired, but it stands to reason the Patriots are going to bring in another back. How much will he eat into Stevenson’s workload? Stevenson can’t really afford to lose another season as a potential lead back.
Stevenson is also entering the final year of his rookie deal. It’s already a challenge for running backs to get lucrative second contracts. One more middling year and Stevenson’s next role may be as a guy on the wrong side of a timeshare with another team. And to be clear, I do not expect that to be on the Patriots.
It’s possible that the Patriots’ unwillingness to ever give running backs a second contract was a Bill Belichick thing. But I don’t think Stevenson is going to be the guy that breaks the mold.
Regardless, Stevenson is not going to get bounced out of the league after his contract is up. But when elite running backs are struggling to get second deals, what exactly is a guy coming off two mediocre seasons who is already 27 years old going to get? That’s right. Stevenson will be 27 years old after the 2024 season.
Stevenson is a one-time fourth-round pick who posted a 4.69-second 40-yard dash time and wasn’t a prolific pass catcher in college. He’s already far exceeded expectations for what a Day 3 running back is likely to accomplish in the NFL. It would not be a surprise at all if we’ve already seen Stevenson’s best season.
Unfortunately, the most likely outcome for Stevenson is he’s less valuable for fantasy on his second team. While he’s certainly not old at 26, I do think he still has some name value based on how well he played in 2022. I would use that to try to extract maximum value for him in a trade.
In the case of 99% of players, there’s an optimal time to trade them. That doesn’t necessarily mean trading a player at peak value. Rather, it means trading a player right before his value plummets. I think we will look back on Stevenson in a couple of years and conclude that now was the best time to trade him.
As always, don’t give him away for free. He remains a starting running back and will be fantasy-relevant in 2024. But I do think now is the time you will be able to get the most for him. Try and move him if you can.
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