With the news late this morning that David Johnson has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, some fantasy football eyes are turning to the 31-year-old Rex Burkhead. Some of you need 6+ points today with a chance of touchdowns. Others need a breakout star. What should we expect from Burkhead in Week 14 against the Seahawks?
Rex Burkhead’s best-case scenario for Week 14
Burkhead’s career has been well-documented, spanning complementary roles on three NFL teams across nine seasons. He has started only 10 games, and in only one season (2020) has he been on the field for 30% or more of his team’s snap counts.
The 5’10”, 215-pound back has earned more than 13 rushes in a game only three times. In fact, his third time was last week — an uninspiring 40 yards on 18 carries with zero scores or receptions against the Titans.
So fantasy managers starting Burkhead today have to hope that his matchup against the Seahawks will produce a favorable game script. He realistically needs 3+ receptions to produce a potential RB4 floor. Or he needs to score. Both of these scenarios are entirely possible.
Royce Freeman is Burkhead’s biggest backfield threat. Freeman has played on three teams in his last 11 games. It’s fair to believe Burkhead can maintain dominance in this backfield as long as he’s pushing the ball downfield 3-4 yards at a time. Yes, 12 points are doable if things break nearly perfectly.
Worst-case scenario for Week 14
The opposing Seahawks are yielding only 3.9 yards per carry, which is the third-best mark in the league. What’s fascinating is that they’re the NFL’s second-most-run-on team — 375 attempts by opponents, only 4 behind the top run-on team, the Texans. So yes, on a side note, it’s ironic that two vastly underwhelming RB corps are facing teams that are consistently run on heavily.
For Burkhead, the issue isn’t only volume. It’s also efficiency. He’s averaging 2.8 yards per carry this year. That’s not going to cut it for very long. If he struggles out of the gate, would we be surprised to see Freeman take over?
Burkhead’s floor is around 2-3 fantasy points. He might rush 7 times for 19 yards and catch 1 ball for zero yards, and that might be the last we see of him today. If you want to play for the touchdown — or shoot high for 3+ receptions — there are worse options.
But Burkhead has about a 50/50 chance to finish outside the top 40 RBs. I’d rather roll the dice on a more game-script-friendly Ameer Abdullah with the Carolina Panthers.