Andrew Van Ginkel was the star of Week 5 before much of the country even had its Sunday morning coffee.
Van Ginkel, the former Miami Dolphins draft pick who signed with the Minnesota Vikings in the offseason, posted his second pick-six in five weeks in his team’s 23-17 victory over the New York Jets in London early Sunday. Van Ginkel, in the short time since he signed his two-year, $20 million contract with Minnesota, has been everything the Vikings and defensive coordinator Brian Flores could have imagined.
And for countless Dolphins fans, he’s been the latest and most convenient cudgel with which to batter their general manager, Chris Grier.
Was Miami Dolphins’ Andrew Van Ginkel Decision a Mistake?
Did Grier mess up by letting AVG walk? Yes. But it’s not as black and white as it seems.
Certainly, the Dolphins could use Van Ginkel in 2024.
Beyond his two interceptions (which rank third in the NFL), he has three sacks (which are t-19th), 14 pressures (t-39th), five QB hits (t-43rd), nine hurries (t-38th), and a 10.9% pressure rate.
“It’s a great feeling,” Van Ginkel said postgame Sunday. “Obviously when you can make a play like that, it can change the game. It’s exciting. I’m just glad I caught the ball and the rest is history.”
Mr. Pick 6@AndrewVanGinkel
📺: @NFLNetwork pic.twitter.com/u9mFg6d4EE
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 6, 2024
What makes Van Ginkel’s start turn so hard for Dolphins fans to stomach? He’s no one-year wonder.
Van Ginkel in his 2023 contract year had six sacks (t-65th), 53 pressures (t-40th), 19 quarterback hits (t-33rd), and an excellent pressure rate of 17.5%.
And yet, the Dolphins let him walk — even though Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips were coming off major injuries.
Granted, they had salary cap constraints last offseason, but they absolutely could have kept Van Ginkel had they structured his contract similarly to how Minnesota did. AVG’s cap figure in 2024 is just $3.4 million — roughly half of what they agreed to pay Van Ginkel’s would-be replacement Shaquil Barrett in 2024.
So this was more of a football decision than it was a financial decision, and that football decision looked indefensible when Barrett shockingly retired the week before training camp.
Barrett’s decision put Miami in scramble mode. Fortunately, it had a solid fallback option: Emmanuel Ogbah, who the team had cut early in the offseason for salary cap reasons.
In a bizarre twist, the Dolphins’ third of three options at outside linebacker this offseason has given Grier a bit of cover for his initial mistake.
Ogbah — whose $3.2 million cap figure is nearly identical to that of Van Ginkel — is having a career renaissance in 2024 after a mostly quiet two-year stretch. In five games this year, he has two sacks (t-45th), 10 pressures (t-74th), five QB hits (t-43rd), and a 10.6% pressure rate.
And Ogbah even has an interception, catching one with his legs in Week 4. What’s more, he might be as good, if not better, in run defense than Van Ginkel.
“The thing I love about Og is just one, his approach to work,” Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver said. “He’s the same guy every day, and he’s essentially what you hope Mohamed [Kamara] grows into. Right now for us, he is that – he is an enforcer and you saw it multiple times in that game.
“He sets a firm edge. He can intimidate you with just his sheer size and will and his ability to stick his face in the fan. And then as a rusher, he’s not just a power guy, there’s a little finesse aspect and great hand usage to it, too. To me, he’s the perfect guy for Mohamed to watch and kind of see what he can take from him and then add to his game.”
Now, is that sustainable? Probably not. There’s a reason that Van Ginkel was a coveted free agent target and Ogbah didn’t have a job until late July.
But he also won’t cost the Dolphins a dime after this season, meaning that if his production does regress to the mean, Miami could simply move on after 2024 and find someone new.
