How the Broncos can beat the Chargers
The Broncos will need to accomplish several things in 2020 when they match up against the Chargers in order to win head to head.
The Broncos offensive approach against the Chargers defense
Offensively, they’ll need to establish the run with Gordon and Lindsay early in the game to help set up their passing offense.
The Chargers’ defense will pinch their edge rushers on the outside of the Broncos offensive formations. Linval Joseph will likely play in a 2i-tech (inside the guard) or a 1-tech (either shoulder of the center) slanting or pushing A-gap. Denzel Perryman and Kenneth Murray will stunt and play the run in the B-gaps. This will force the Broncos to double the interior of the defensive line at the point of attack, having their guards and center work up to inside backer, to help them find success at creating open running lanes on the inside.
If Denver can successfully establish the run against the Chargers scheme, it will allow for them to set up their quick passing offense with Lock, providing him with various route combinations that attack the vertical seams, hashes, intermediate and short levels of the field. It will be imperative for Lock to identify matchup scenarios with his receiving threats against Hayward on the outside, Harris Jr. in the slot, and Derwin James lurking over the top in front of crossing patterns in the middle of the field.
The Broncos defensive approach against the Chargers offense
Defensively, Denver will have a tough task against the Chargers skill players. Earlier, I discussed the importance for the Broncos to maintain edge discipline against Tyrod Taylor’s mobility as a quarterback. Similarly, Denver will also have to maintain that responsibility against Ekeler when the Chargers utilize him with jet-motion looks on offense.
With Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and rookie K.J. Hill at the receiver position, the Broncos secondary will be responsible for reducing their production through the air. Bouye will likely follow Allen wherever the Chargers place him, Bryce Callahan will be responsible for coverage in the slot, and whichever cornerback wins the starting job opposite of Bouye will be tasked against lining up on Williams.
From the safety position, both Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson will likely draw the responsibility of covering tight end Hunter Henry when he aligns split out as the number three WR.
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In order for the secondary to have success against the Chargers group of receivers, Denver’s pass rush will need to be effective against Taylor and the Chargers offensive line. Miller and Chubb will be responsible for setting the edge while Harris and Casey will be relied upon to provide an interior pass rush.
If the Broncos can blend a combination of disguised coverages and blitzes with press looks, they can maintain their advantage in the Broncos and Chargers rivalry.
Matchups where the Chargers have an advantage
The Broncos will find themselves tested with the following matchups on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
Mike Williams vs the Broncos third cornerback
Williams was a thorn in the side of the Broncos in 2019. In two games against Denver, Williams had a combined 11 receptions and 191 yards. Whether De’Vante Bausby, Isaac Yiadom, or Michael Ojemudia draw the coverage assignment on him, they’ll need to find a way to limit Williams’ big-play ability.
Chris Harris Jr. eager to line up inside the slot
Despite the additions of Jeudy and Hamler, the Broncos rookies will need to establish consistency inside the slot prior to the team’s Week 11 matchup against the Chargers. Harris Jr. will be motivated against his former team and will rely on the pressure of Los Angeles’ pass rushers to force errant throws across the inside of the field.
Derwin James and Kenneth Murray against Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon
The Chargers struggled in 2019 against the Broncos rushing attack. With the addition of Murray at linebacker and James fully healthy, Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will likely gameplan to take away the Broncos’ ability to run counter, stretch, and outside zone. James will roll down in coverage towards the line of scrimmage while Murray will plug on inside gaps.
Matchups where the Broncos have an advantage
Despite the Chargers reloading on defense, the Broncos still have several areas where they’ll have an advantage in head to head matchups.
Vic Fangio as the defensive play-caller
Through the first four weeks of 2019, the Chargers had benefitted from Austin Ekeler’s all-purpose productivity. For the Chargers in those games, Ekeler had over 490 yards of all-purpose yards on offense and 6 touchdowns combined on the ground and through the air. Fangio installed a gameplan that limited Ekeler to 93 total all-purpose yards in the Broncos 20-13 victory in Week 5 and only 67 total all-purpose yards in the Broncos 23-20 victory in Week 13.
Courtland Sutton against Casey Hayward
Going into 2020, Sutton has the early advantage over Hayward on the outside. Hayward is a tough, physical cornerback, but Sutton had the advantage in both matchups in 2019. If the Chargers divert most of their attention in coverage on Sutton, other players like Jeudy, Hamler, and Noah Fant could see an increase in offensive productivity.
Broncos defensive line against the Chargers
The Broncos defensive line stopped the Chargers’ rushing attack in both matchups in 2019. In Week 5, Denver held the Chargers to 35 total rushing yards. In Week 13, the Broncos gave up 115 yards rushing but registered three sacks without Von Miller, who injured his knee the week prior. Despite additions to their offensive line in 2020, the Chargers will still enter 2020 without a favorable advantage against the Broncos front seven.
In an already tough AFC West division, the Broncos and Chargers matchups will be competitive and full of storylines that will make for an exciting renewal of their historic rivalry.