All of those analysts who claimed Malik Nabers was at least as good, if not better than Marvin Harrison Jr. can take a well-deserved victory lap. Nabers was second among all rookies (including quarterbacks) with 18.2 fantasy points per game. He caught 109 passes for 1,204 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games...while his quarterbacks were Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, and Drew Lock. The Giants may be a disaster, but it's hard to imagine Nabers ever finding himself in a worse offensive situation than the one he just experienced. If he can do this as a rookie, just imagine what he'll be able to do when he reaches his prime and actually has a competent NFL quarterback throwing him the ball.
It's ironic that Marvin Harrison Jr. had the best QB and offensive situation playing with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, yet it was Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. playing with some of the NFL's worst quarterbacks who not only overcame, but excelled beyond all expectations. Thomas had about an even split between Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones. He averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game with Lawrence, but an incredible 19.7 ppg with Jones. We often see rookie WRs start to figure it out over the second half of the season. Thomas was a league winner in every sense of the term, posting games of 32.5, 28.2, and 23.9 during the three weeks of the fantasy playoffs. You can bet fantasy managers remember that. With Lawrence likely not going anywhere, QB play will once again be a net negative for Thomas. Nevertheless, Thomas demonstrated elite talent and upside, and looks to be a mainstay in the ranks of the WR1s for years to come.
Once in a while, players described as generational actually live up to the billing. Two years ago, Puka Nacua broke the rookie receptions record. That lasted all of one season until Malik Nabers broke it during the early slate of the Week 18 games. His record lasted a couple of hours before Brock Bowers topped them both. The Raiders TE caught 112 balls for 1,194 yards and 5 touchdowns. He averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game. Much like Nabers and Thomas, Bowers also did not exactly have quality quarterback play. His three guys were Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, and Desmond Ridder. Let's similarly imagine Bowers on a competent NFL offense with NFL-caliber quarterback play and a head coach that has some semblance of a clue.
A polarizing prospect, Ladd McConkey exhibited elite efficiency at Georgia, but was strangely not on the field all that often. It turns out, perhaps he should've been. McConkey has already emerged into one of the best route runners in the league. He averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game as a rookie and looks poised to be Justin Herbert's favorite target for years to come.
It's always tough deciding when the right time for a quarterback is in a single QB league. This feels like the right spot, but if you want to bump Jayden Daniels ahead of McConkey, I wouldn't fight you on it. We have our next great rushing quarterback. Daniels completed 69% of his passes as a rookie, throwing for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions. He also ran for 891 yards and 6 more scores. His 20.9 fantasy points per game was good for an overall QB6b finish. Daniels ranked ninth in PFN's QB+ metric as a rookie.
Look at how the season finished. Bucky Irving completely reduced Rachaad White to an obvious passing down role. Essentially, White became a pass blocker, not even touching the ball in the final game of the season. Meanwhile, Irving averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game from Week 6 onward, which included Week 14, when he left the game early after scoring just 2.8 points. Remove that game and he's at 18.2. This isn't a situation like 2023 when the Bucs had no choice. They had options. Both White and Sean Tucker have proven capable of handling volume when asked. They chose to feature the rookie. This is not a fluke. Irving is going to be the lead back for one of the NFL's premier offenses for the foreseeable future.
The unquestioned No. 1 overall pick in dynasty rookie drafts falls all the way to seventh in our redo. Marvin Harrison Jr. massively disappointed as a rookie. Yet, he still managed 62 catches for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns. Harrison failed to reach 12 fantasy points per game and finished around overall WR40. Yet, I'm moderately encouraged by how he closed the season. Two of his best games came in the team's final two games, with his 11 catches the most he had over any two game stretch in his rookie campaign. Kyler Murray openly acknowledged that his rapport with Harrison wasn't where it needed to be. I think we get significant improvement from Harrison in year two that could, perhaps, make dropping him to No. 7 in this redrafting look foolish.
For half the season, Xavier Worthy looked like a major bust. Then, similar to Rashee Rice a year ago, Worthy started to come on during the second half. He certainly Worthy immensely from layup targets, but it's not a bad thing that his team wanted to scheme him the ball. Still, Worthy isn’t really winning on legitimate routes, which has me concerned about his long-term sustainability. Nevertheless, from Weeks 11-17 Worthy averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game. During the three most important weeks of the fantasy season, 15-17, Worthy scored at least 19.6 fantasy points in all of them. It's enough to vault him ahead of the next two WRs.
The Broncos rookie averaged an impressive 18.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie. Although he was only 18th in PFN's QB+ metric, Nix's overall score is weighed down by his early season struggles. From Week 5 onward, Nix averaged 20.9 fantasy points per game. Adding an average of 2.5 ppg via rushing, Nix has a sneaky-high weekly floor to go along with a proven elite ceiling. If he can make strides in year two, we could be talking about Nix as a perennial QB1.
The strong finish to his rookie season has me bumping Jalen McMillan ahead of the next guy on this list. His 10.4 ppg is far from impressive. But McMillan wasn't really part of the offense until late in the season. Experiencing the classic late-rookie season surge, McMillan averaged 19.8 ppg over the final five weeks of the season. He fully emerged as the WR2 on this team opposite Mike Evans. This wasn't a fluke. McMillan was making impressive catches and winning at all levels. He's convinced me he's a legitimate WR2 at the NFL level.
There's really no sugarcoating Odunze's rookie season. The best we can say is he managed to eclipse 700 receiving yards, which puts him in a spot that gives him a chance to still breakout. Odunze averaged 1.35 yards per route run. There are a few outliers with that poor of a rookie YPRR who succeeded. By no means is Odunze's career cooked. However, it's certainly not encouraging.
The final spot in our 2024 dynasty rookie first round redraft goes the Giants rookie. Tyrone Tracy Jr. did not stumble into the Giants RB1 job. He took it and he kept it. Beginning in Week 5, Tracy played over 60% of the snaps in all but one game. He averaged a very respectable 13.2 fantasy points per game over that span. The Giants can't be worse offensively going forward and Tracy sure looks like their RB1 of the future.
