You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready.
Fantasy football mock drafts are fun, but they also serve a greater purpose. We all have our own opinions about players, but we aren’t drafting against nine (or 11 or 13) versions of ourselves, we are drafting against other humans who may think differently or share our strategies.
By mock drafting, you get to put your hand on the pulse of the public, allowing you to get a better feel as to where you fall in line and, more importantly, where you stand out.
2024 Superflex Redraft Mock Draft | Non-PPR
1.01) Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Shuffle up and deal with the elite quarterbacks however you’d like. It’s irresponsible, in my opinion, to open a Superflex draft with anything besides a signal-caller at 1.01. The stability of this position is second to none, and you need two of them. Why not lock in a top-tier option when given the chance?
In drafting a QB first overall, you not only get the strong weekly production with the narrowest range of outcomes, but you also open yourself up to reading the draft board in the coming rounds. Many managers will feel the pressure of needing to reach on a second quarterback, but you’re afforded the luxury of waiting if you so choose because you took on essentially no risk when filling your QB1 slot.
As for Hurts himself, the addition of Saquon Barkley is more additive to this offense as a whole than he is a threat to subtract in a major way from his quarterback’s statistical bottom line. Hurts’ carry count could fall a touch, but the quality of each figure to rise due to the defensive attention his All-Pro running back will demand.
Hurts nearly had more red-zone rush attempts (43) than pass attempts (50) in 2023. And until the NFL finds a way to slow him down in close, his short-yardage rushing production is the single safest aspect of fantasy football and has allowed him to lead the position with 13 games of 25+ fantasy points over the past two seasons.
We can fight as to who the best QB is at this spot but don’t get cute and move off of the position at the top of the board. Please.
1.02) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Worry not about a down 2023. The numbers were down, but I’d argue that you should be encouraged.
Wait, what?
Mahomes showcased the ability to use his mind as a weapon. The best way for the Chiefs to win games last season wasn’t for him to put up video game numbers and he fell in line.
That hurt fantasy managers, but it could help in a major way in 2024. Gone is L’Jarius Sneed and added is a pair of field stretchers (Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy). Kansas City’s path to a three-peat figures to look a bit different and that should result in a bounce-back campaign.
I’m talking as if Mahomes sunk your team last season. For a sixth straight season, he cleared 4,000 passing yards and for a fourth straight, he racked up 300+ yards on the ground.
Assuming that the Chiefs’ deep drop rate (6.8%, second highest in the league) trends closer to average, Mahomes’ name will be back atop leaderboards every week.
1.03) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Would you believe me if putting Allen as QB3 is a hot take?
It’s true. The King of the North has finished each of the past four seasons as a top-2 producer at the position, a run of dominance that is in the rarest of territory.
That said, that stretch conveniently started the season that Stefon Diggs came over from the Minnesota Vikings. The veteran is, along with Gabe Davis, no longer there to help elevate Allen as a passer and that level of change is enough for me to slide him into the back-end of my top tier at the position.
The way I have this projected is for Allen to potentially struggle early as he looks to develop a connection with his new running mates. Normally, I wouldn’t have a problem with a late-season peak, but will the schedule allow for that?
- Week 13 vs. 49ers
- Week 16 vs. Patriots
- Week 17 vs. Jets
All of those are home games, but they are tough matchups. I’m lukewarm on whether Buffalo’s pass game will be explosive enough to stabilize Allen’s value enough when your season is on the line.
1.04) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The concerns about Christian McCaffrey after a few injury-riddled seasons have evaporated thanks to the All-Pro piling up 3,233 yards and 31 touchdowns in his 27 regular-season games with the Niners. Over that stretch, he has averaged 38.5% more PPR PPG than any other running back (minimum 20 games played), a gap that is hard to comprehend.
His versatility gives him an unheard-of floor, and he’s the member of this offense I’m least worried about statistically should Brock Purdy experience some near-inevitable regression.
1.05) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Is the top tier at the receiver position a class of one? It’s certainly possible — Lamb does it all.
Last season, he ranked fifth in the NFL in deep receptions while also leading the league in slot receptions. His connection with Dak Prescott is nothing short of special, and the target competition is nothing short of limited.
Lamb had seven games with double-digit catches last season, a number that not only led the league but was more than Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown combined for.
Don’t make this complicated – he’s the clear alpha in an uptempo offense that wants to attack through the air.
1.06) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
The reigning MVP has seen his fantasy points per pass improve in consecutive seasons – not bad for a running back, right? Jackson may never be Mahomes when it comes to throwing the ball, but it’s impossible to overlook his development.
In 2023, a career-high 69.2% of his fantasy points were earned through the air. That speaks to the offensive mind of Todd Monken and should provide you with confidence that he can produce at an elite level, even with the Derrick Henry addition this offseason.
Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely are a pair of young pieces that could take a serious step forward in Year 2 under Monken, creating a fantasy profile for Jackson that is without holes.
1.07) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
There are a lot of receivers who can either earn targets or be ultra-efficient with the looks they get – the truly special can blend those two.
Hill led the NFL in targets per route while also ranking third at the position in PPR points per target. Think about that – everyone knows where the ball is going and there is nothing they can do about it.
Expand those leaderboards and the numbers look cartoonish. The percentage point gap in targets per route between Hill and Davante Adams (WR2 in this metric) was greater than the difference between Adams and Diontae Johnson (WR23).
Until we get concrete evidence that defenses stop this speed and Miami’s creativity, we have to assume that they can’t do it.
Quarterbacks fly off the board in this format because they are the highest scorers and that advantage only grows in a non-PPR setting, but Hill’s unique skill set makes him a worthwhile first-round pick anyway.
1.08) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
The super sophomore is top-three in the betting markets in terms of favorites to lead the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns this season, optimism that is difficult to dismiss. After a historic rookie campaign, Stroud now has access to veteran skill position players (Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs) in addition to a pair of budding stars (Nico Collins and Tank Dell).
Potentially worrisome for Houston bettors is the fact that this defense was fourth-worst on a per-pass basis, but that’s good news for fantasy investors. Stroud is going to be leaned on heavily, and that gives him the chance to put his name among the elite at the position.
MORE: PFN Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Stroud has said this offseason that he wants to stretch the field more this year. That coming from a player who saw 41.9% of his passing fantasy points come on deep throws (the highest among QBs to finish in the top 25 at the position) is enough for some to think that he could replicate Mahomes’ second NFL season (5,097 yards and 50 TDs).
That’s a little aggressive for me, but the fact that the conversation can be had should give you conscience in building a winner around him.
1.09) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
If we had the opportunity to build a fantasy quarterback in a lab, it would resemble Richardson. It might come up short in some of the measurables because we love competition and would fear that creating such a player would be too much of a cheat code.
He’s Josh Allen, but with a 40-yard dash time that is 6.7% faster.
He’s Justin Fields, but 15-20 pounds heavier.
He might be what Daunte Culpepper would have been if he had been born 25 years later and went through the same training programs. And guess what? Culpepper was QB1 in Years 2-4 and it wasn’t close (5.3% more PPG than QB2 and 12.8% more PPG than QB3).
I’m not setting the bar that high due to the depth of the position and the slanted rules these days, but much like Victor Wembanyama in the NBA, we could be looking at a player that makes us question how our fantasy game is played/scored.
Last season, he became the first rookie with multiple games where he did all of the following since Robert Griffin in 2012: 200 passing yards, 10 rush attempts, and a rushing TD.
That stat would be impressive if I left it there with zero context, but let’s not forget that he appeared in just four games and made it to the finish line just twice.
There’s some risk that comes with drafting any player with this little professional experience in the first round – there might be more risk taken on by letting your opponents draft him.
1.10) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
I’m not artistic. You could give me all the tools to create a beautiful painting and I’m going to fail. I’m going to fail in such a fashion that you’re going to question the utensils you provided me with.
Arthur Smith is not creative. The Falcons gave him all the tools to create a beautiful offense and he was destined to fail.
Don’t let his failure result in you hesitating for even a moment about investing in the tools he was given. Dalvin Cook was the PPR PPG RB5 during his final four seasons with Kirk Cousins, production that feels like something of a floor expectation for the explosive Robinson.
The former Texas standout averaged 69.2% more PPR points per opportunity (rushes + targets) last season, in Smith’s archaic offense, than Cook did over that elite stretch.
McCaffrey deserves to be the RB1 in all formats because of his track record and the environment around him being proven, but Robinson has every opportunity to unseat him this season. It could come at the perfect time, too, with a pair of NFC East opponents awaiting him during the fantasy Super Bowl (Giants and Commanders).
1.11) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
We now have tangible proof that Hall is an elite player and the ability to be a part of even an average offense puts him in a position to truly explode. In 2023, a year in which no defense paid any attention to the Jets’ passing game, he ripped off a 25+ yard touch in 10 games.
Hall was special last season – imagine what happens if he doesn’t have a rush gain rate that ranked 40th of 44 qualifiers (behind Miles Sanders)? Aaron Jones isn’t the player of Hall and he gained yardage at a rate 7.5% higher than league RB average during Aaron Rodgers’ final season in Green Bay.
The 2023 season was great and it’s just the start.
1.12) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Murray is the final of the dual-threat quarterbacks who could lead the position in scoring this season. Of course, there are injury concerns to overcome given his size and the potential for a learning curve as this young offense develops, but if you’re playing to win your league, you’re looking for elite form down the stretch and that is very much possible.
Murray was QB4 in 2020, his only season where both he and his star WR1 were healthy. He opened up that campaign with nine straight top-10 performances (six of which were top-five finishes) and that is the selling point – consistency.
An elite athlete at the position can own an elevated floor and that is even more true with a game-changing pass catcher – and we think he has two! If you’re swinging big at the beginning of your Superflex draft, this is exactly the type of profile I want. Entering 2024, a healthy Murray, in my opinion, has a better chance of winning your league than he does failing in a significant way.
2.01) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Most drafts work this way where Lamb and Hill are viewed as a tier of their own. I have it ranked that way as well, but that’s a range of outcomes thing – I label Chase’s week-to-week upside on par with anyone at the position.
Chase is the sixth-highest-scoring receiver (PPR PPG) since entering the league and averages more points per target over that stretch (2.00) than Lamb. Investing in Chase is a pseudo bet on Joe Burrow’s health and that is the thought process in ranking him at the top of Tier 2 instead of as a part of Tier 1.
This is a Tier 1 talent.
2.02) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Remember when we weren’t sure if his late-season spike was a flash in the pan or not? I think it’s safe to say those times are in the past and that Detroit has one of the premier talents in the game.
PPR PPG since St. Brown’s breakout in Week 13, 2021
- Justin Jefferson: 21.1
- Tyreek Hill: 20.2
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 19.7
- Cooper Kupp: 19.6
- CeeDee Lamb: 19.6
He’s posted consecutive seasons with a target share north of 28%, and the scariest part of his entire profile is the room for growth. In those two seasons, just seven of his 310 targets (2.3%) have come in the end zone. St. Brown can get open in a phone booth – it’s only a matter of time until that skill is unlocked in a major way in scoring situations.
2.03) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
From a process standpoint, in the second round of a Superflex league, I’m taking a QB under the age of 30 who was QB4 during his Year 2-3 stretch and largely returns the same roster.
That’s the situation we find ourselves in with Burrow and as long as all health hurdles are cleared come draft day, he’s a solid buy. During that 2021-22 run, he had multiple touchdown passes in 22 of 32 games and led the league in Passer Rating.
Visual at how the #FantasyFootball landscape has shifted in terms of QB scoring over the past decade. These lists are sorted by the top PPG QBs in the respective 5-year samples (per @TruMediaSports) pic.twitter.com/ayRlMJllrX
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) July 26, 2024
The ability to rack up points on the ground is becoming closer than mandated than a nice to have at the QB position. Burrow can ascend above that due to the big-play nature of his receivers – but also don’t lose track of the fact that he ran for five touchdowns in his last healthy season.
2.04) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have been a top-seven scoring offense in consecutive seasons, and the Colts, without their star quarterback for 13 games, finished 11th in points per game a season ago — ahead of the Packers, Texans, and Chiefs, to name a few.
Offensive environment isn’t everything, but it’s a good place to start. And I don’t think there’s any denying that both Barkley and Jonathan Taylor are in advantageous spots.
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Can Philadelphia make good on its lofty projected win total? Only time will tell on that front. But regardless of the number in the win column, I expect Saquon Barkley to have a good time leading this offense.
And yes, I said “leading.” D’Andre Swift carried the rock 78 more times in 2023 than he did in any of his four seasons with the Lions, yet he was able to sustain his career efficiency (4.6 yards per carry) thanks to the numerous ways the Eagles’ offense threatens defenses.
With Jalen Hurts’ unique skill set, Philadelphia spreads out defenses via shotgun snaps, a tendency that should work well, given how good we’ve seen Barkley be in space.
Since 2021, offenses with 70% of first-down snaps in shotgun
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- 2021 Eagles: 73%
- 2022 Eagles: 72%
- 2023 Eagles: 70%
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That’s the entire list. Barkley’s Giants didn’t clear 50% in any of his three seasons since his ACL tear in 2020, but they did trend up over that stretch, and it helped him total 1,242 yards and 10 scores in 14 games while playing for the third-worst scoring offense in the league.
2.05) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
It’s important to see the forest through the trees when it comes to Brown. Was his end to 2023 less than ideal? It was, but fantasy is a game of looking at the big picture. When doing that, there’s no way to label Philadelphia’s WR1 as anything but elite.
Here are the players over the past decade with a pair of 1,4000 receiving yard seasons before their sixth season:
- Justin Jefferson
- Michael Thomas
- Julio Jones
- A.J. Brown
That’s nice company and I don’t see Brown slowing down. His end-zone target count has increased each season of his career, he has reached 2.5 yards per route run every year, and he has seen at least a quarter of his team’s targets in four straight campaigns. There may be a down week now and again – but that’s like the wealthy complaining that the temperature of their pool isn’t up to par or that their Escalade needs a tune-up.
Relax. You’re in a good spot.
AJ Brown looks like he's in midseason form.
It's July.pic.twitter.com/9ohShsXltl
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) July 31, 2024
2.06) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
The reigning passing champion is as safe as it gets due to the talent that insulates him in Miami. In addition to a pair of star receivers, the Dolphins now have more potential at the tight end position (Jonnu Smith) and added another track star to their backfield (Jaylen Wright).
Splash plays are fluky – until they aren’t. In the same way that the peak Golden State Warriors defied logic for most teams, this Dolphins team is built for the big plays. Tagovailoa had eight games last season with a 35+ yard touchdown pass, the most such games in a single season over the past eight years.
This is a rare offense and one that you can count on for weekly production from the quarterback position.
2.07) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Even in a 2023 season that was disjointed due to injuries, Taylor kept doing what Taylor does – find paydirt. He enters this game having scored in six straight games, a run that saw him reach 18 carries five times. The volume and talent aren’t in question – if Anthony Richardson can elevate this to a top-10 offense, a vintage JT season is possible.
It feels like a while ago, but don’t forget that Taylor led the position in PPR points during his first two seasons, delivering production that was 21.7% over expectation based on where his touches took place.
Taylor isn’t going to come cheap this season, but this could look like a discount come August 2025.
2.08) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Might this be the easiest player to sell in fantasy? That doesn’t mean the monster season happens, but the expectations are warranted.
Since 2019, here are the instances in which a running back had 1,500 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs in a season
- Derrick Henry: 3
- Rest of NFL: 2
Gus Edwards ran for 13 scores in Year 1 of the Todd Monken era in Baltimore and now the team gets an elite version of that player with a better grasp of the offensive scheme. If you’re curious, LaDainian Tomlinson holds the record for rushing touchdowns in a single season with 28 in 2006.
2.09) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott is symbolic of how fantasy managers have to look at the game differently than casual NFL fans. Ask Joe from accounting or cousin Suzy about their impression of Dallas’ QB and you’re going to get an answer that sounds something like: “Do it in the playoffs.”
There’s nothing wrong with that take – it just doesn’t matter for us. He had seven weeks last season in which he produced top-three numbers at the position as the sheer volume of attempts made him a weekly asset.
Why would we expect that to change? The running back position remains underwhelming while he has access to one of the best receivers in the game and an upward-trending tight end. After the Cowboys travel to San Francisco in Week 8, they play nothing but defenses that they can exploit in a major way.
Dallas could lead the league in scoring again. If that’s the case, this manager is getting a bargain.
2.10) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The talent is second to none. Jefferson is the standard for production through four NFL seasons and he proved it again last year by finishing fourth at the position in yards per route run despite injuries to both him and Kirk Cousins. That ranked him ahead of Lamb and St. Brown, two elite assets that had career seasons.
That said, we are nitpicking at the top of the position and it’s impossible to overlook the uncertainty under center. For purposes of this exercise, I’m going to assume that it is J.J. McCarthy who leads this team in passes thrown, and if that proves inaccurate, the overall point remains because of what we’ve seen from Sam Darnold up to this point in his career.
Last season, it took 20 PPR PPG to be a top-five receiver and that’s largely been the case over the past three seasons – if you want your name to rank among the very elite, that’s the level you have to produce at.
Over those three seasons, just 15.1% of the times in which a receiver has seen 5+ targets from a rookie has he reached that threshold. Remove the QBs with top-five draft capital (McCarthy was the 10th overall pick) and the rate drops to 12.7%.
Jefferson is a unique breed and is plenty capable of any trend I put in his way. But yes, the floor is different this year than years past and that’s enough of a reason to drop him a little lower than may feel comfortable.
2.11) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
If you’re buying stock in an offense heading into 2024, the Detroit Lions are on the shortlist, and leading that charge is their explosive second-year tailback. Despite never truly being unleashed as a rookie (just two games with over 15 carries), Gibbs found paydirt 11 times last season and quickly became a player to fear in space.
With nothing of substance changing in Detroit, why would we not expect growth? Yes, the presence of David Montgomery (career-high 13 rushing TDs last season) caps his ceiling in a way that makes him competing for the fantasy crown at the position highly unlikely, but that doesn’t mean he can’t lead your backfield and do it at a high level.
Everything in Gibbs’ profile suggests that efficiency will be a strength, thus making any extension of his role highly valuable and vaulting him into the top-10 conversation among skill position players.
2.12) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Winners don’t make excuses.
That idea was beat into me as a child athlete and I agree with it. But what if it sounds like an excuse but is just 100% fact?
Wilson having yet to finish a season inside the top-30 at the position (PPR) is because of his quarterback play. That’s not an excuse. I’m not here to tell you that vintage Aaron Rodgers is going to be taking center stage in New York, but his floor, as long as he’s on the field, is significantly higher than anything Wilson has been subjected to up to this point.
Of the 59 qualified receivers last season in PPR points per target:
57. Wilson: 1.29
58. Robert Woods: 1.18
59. Jonathan Mingo: 1.00
The WR average last season was 1.79. If we correct him to just league average, that’s an additional 84 fantasy points and makes him WR7 last season in terms of points per game. That’s better than Brown and Chase, two other alpha target earners who have similar physical tools but also have had the benefit of the doubt in terms of quarterback play.
That’s the class he deserves to be considered with and finishing inside the top five at the position is within the range of outcomes.
2024 Non-PPR Superflex Mock Draft Rounds 3-6
3.01) Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
3.02) Nico Collins, WR, HOU
3.03) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
3.04) Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
3.05) Jordan Love, QB, GB
3.06) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
3.07) Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
3.08) Travis Etienne, RB, JAX
3.09) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
3.10) Chris Olave, WR, NO
3.11) Brock Purdy, QB, SF
3.12) Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
4.01) De’Von Achane, RB, MIA
4.02) Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
4.03) Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
4.04) Davante Adams, WR, LV
4.05) Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
4.06) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
4.07) Drake London, WR, ATL
4.08) Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
4.09) Jared Goff, QB, DET
4.10) James Conner, RB, ARI
4.11) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
4.12) Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
5.01) James Cook, RB, BUF
5.02) Travis Kelce, TE, KC
5.03) Mike Evans, WR, TB
5.04) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
5.05) Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
5.06) Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
5.07) Rachaad White, RB, TB
5.08) Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
5.09) Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
5.10) Zamir White, RB, LV
5.11) Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
5.12) Brian Robinson Jr., RB, WAS
6.01) Aaron Rodgers, QB, NYJ
6.02) Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
6.03) Rashee Rice, WR, KC
6.04) Trey McBride, TE, ARI
6.05) Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
6.06) Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
6.07) Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
6.08) DJ Moore, WR, CHI
6.09) Najee Harris, RB, PIT
6.10) Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
6.11) Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
6.12) DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI