We are now deep into the month of August. The heart of fantasy football draft season is upon us. If you have a 1QB non-PPR draft coming up, we’ve got a board for you to analyze to help you gauge where players typically go and when you have to draft the guys you want.
This is a non-PPR mock draft conducted with real people in the PFN Discord with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 2 Flex. My mocks never include kicker or defense.
Redraft Mock Draft From the PFN Discord
Earlier in the summer, my mocks were mostly me drafting against the computer — in which there is certainly value. Explaining my thought process behind each pick helps you understand how I’m constructing my rosters based on what’s already happened and what I think will happen.
As useful as those are, nothing beats a real draft with real people. Thankfully, the awesome people from the PFN Discord hopped in a mock draft with me. So, today, we will go through this draft, which was conducted with all humans, and discuss what we noticed/learned.
Running Back Value Is Greatly Increased
In half and full-PPR drafts, we are seeing wide receivers dominate the early rounds, but that wasn’t the case in this non-PPR mock draft. In fact, as someone who very seldom does non-PPR drafts, it definitely tripped me up a bit.
Hey! That’s why we practice!
Five of the first six and six of the first seven picks were running backs. CeeDee Lamb, a consensus top-two selection, fell all the way to No. 10.
By the end of the third round, the players off the board looked similar to drafts with a version of PPR, but that was due in large part to a run on wide receivers in Round 3.
The takeaway here is you should really try to not leave the first two rounds without at least one running back. In an era where wide receivers are going earlier than ever, RB-RB remains very viable in non-PPR formats.
Zero RB Does Not Produce Good Results
It goes without saying that you can win with any strategy in any league. What we think looks good now may not necessarily be what ends up being good in December. But based on current rankings and optimal team construction, the teams that went Zero RB didn’t turn out all that well.
Only one team went true Zero RB (Team 12), taking no running backs in the first five rounds. They executed it well, grabbing an elite quarterback in Jalen Hurts and a tight end with elite upside in Kyle Pitts.
Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, and Cooper Kupp have the potential to be the best WR trio in the league. However, they’re starting D’Andre Swift and Devin Singletary at running back. In a format where receptions don’t matter, that’s going to be a steep hole to overcome on a weekly basis.
Team 9, meanwhile, started with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Harrison Jr., and DJ Moore. In a non-PPR league, Rachaad White as their RB1 is less than ideal. Grabbing Najee Harris in Round 6, though, was a great move. This team can definitely compete, but let’s compare it to what I consider the best team drafted.
Team 3 started with Breece Hall and Isiah Pacheco, locking in two RB1s. Then, they got great value on Chris Olave in Round 3 and DeVonta Smith in Round 5. Those two players sandwiched an elite QB in Lamar Jackson in the fourth round. Then, Terry McLaurin, Jonathon Brooks, and Diontae Johnson round out a really strong starting lineup (with Brooks on the bench until he gets going).
Team 4, which was my team, started out great. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Deebo Samuel, and DK Metcalf all have strong touchdown upside. My error was failing to account for all of the running backs going about a round earlier than normal. I probably should have taken David Montgomery or possibly even Harris in Round 5.
Javonte Williams is far from the worst RB2, especially given the strength of the wide receivers, but the running back depth is very suspect. In a format where rushing touchdowns are so important, I didn’t do a good enough job prioritizing lead running backs who handle goal-line carries.
Best Value Picks of the Mock Draft
Amari Cooper
Team 11 started RB-RB and then stacked Travis Kelce with Patrick Mahomes. Although wide receiver value is depressed in non-PPR, you still want to have quality guys. Being able to grab Amari Cooper at 5.11 was crucial for this roster, as the WR2 and WR3 are questionable in Chris Godwin and DeAndre Hopkins.
Rashee Rice
The 6.09 may not look great relative to Rashee Rice’s ADP. However, Rice’s price has been on a rocket ship over the past two weeks, as the fantasy community becomes more and more convinced he won’t be serving a suspension this season.
Rice was a top-12 WR over the final two months of the 2023 season. Although he’s a low aDOT (average depth of target) guy, he should be able to rack up enough yardage to be viable in non-PPR. And, of course, anyone playing with Mahomes has considerable TD upside.
Jaylen Warren
It appears fantasy managers are currently getting a significant discount on Jaylen Warren due to the hamstring strain he suffered in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ second preseason game.
Head coach Mike Tomlin said that it’s nothing to worry about long term. Even if Warren misses the first week or two of the season, there’s no reason to think he won’t be fine going forward.
In a true timeshare with Harris, if Warren continues to go more than a full round after his teammate, fantasy managers should target him everywhere.