Christmas came early for sports bettors this year because this FanDuel Sportsbook offer is one you’ll want to take advantage of. With FanDuel’s “Super Win Bonus” promo, place one straight wager of at least $50 on any team to win the Super Bowl, and you’ll get $5 in bonus bets for each game they win during the regular season (maximum in $50 in total bonus bets).
Betting for this FanDuel promo involves a different strategy than picking a Super Bowl winner or making your favorite longshot bet. If you’re looking for guidance, we have you covered. Our experts, Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting Director Brian Blewis, and Betting & Fantasy Analyst Jason Katz, break down their favorite bet for this promo.
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[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/widget/offers/pro-football-network/dynamic/sportsbooks:1,2,3,4/promos:1?id=b7a84969-d36a-4a7f-920d-39e6e718d621″]Best Super Bowl Bets Using New Promo
Blewis: Gentlemen, I don’t need to ask if you will be taking advantage of this offer. What I do need to ask is, what is your strategy here? Are you going for the team you are most confident will make you your money back, and then it will essentially be a “free” Super Bowl ticket with preseason odds? Or do you have a different thought process in mind?
Katz: Of course, I am taking advantage of this promo. I already have a bunch of Super Bowl futures pending, mostly with free bets. And that’s the key to this one as well: the free bets. My guess is that FanDuel’s legitimately brilliant marketing team is banking on most people taking longshots with this promo.
That’s what free bets are for. The goal with this promo is not to actually hit the Super Bowl winner prediction (although that would certainly be a benefit) but rather to optimize your chances of maxing the free bets.
We are not only choosing exclusively from teams capable of winning 10 games, but we want to pick a team most likely to win 10 games. That leaves me choosing between the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Eagles, and 49ers.
Now that we’ve established the teams most likely to win 10 games, we want to pick the one with the best odds. At +600, the Chiefs aren’t worth it.
The Bills and Bengals are both +1000, but I don’t think the Bills have the pieces to get over the hump, and Joe Burrow’s calf strain gives me enough concern to rule them out. Plus, I’d prefer to take an NFC team anyway, as that is the far weaker conference. That brings us to the Eagles and 49ers.
The Eagles are +800. The 49ers are +1000. Both of these teams won more than 10 games last season. They met in the NFC Championship Game. I already have futures down on both of these teams to win the Super Bowl.
My official pick to win the Super Bowl is the Eagles. However, given that both teams have pretty tough schedules and these two divisions play each other, I will take the extra +200 and make the 49ers (+1000) my official pick for this promo.
Bearman: Last year, under this same promo, I looked for the team that I felt had a combination of the best chance to win 10 games (the promo max for payback) and a chance to win the Super Bowl and pay off the big future. I settled on the Bills, who had no issue with the 10 wins, but then, well, you know what happened vs. the Bengals.
In the end (and this is a strategy I highly recommend), I used the 10 different $5 bets that I earned to better my portfolio and had three of them on the Kansas City Chiefs, which paid off the $50 and then some, hitting at anywhere from +700 to +900.
Now to this year. Twelve teams are projected for 10 wins or more, according to most sportsbooks. So take out the other 20 and take out the five teams whose win totals are 9.5 (Jags, Jets, Dolphins, Lions, and Chargers), which could, in theory, go either way (unless you are bullish on one, but that’s your call).
That leaves seven teams. The Bills and Eagles have incredibly hard schedules this year, so I am removing them. They both should get to 10 wins, and the Eagles could again return to Super Bowl, but schedules are schedules.
Of the remaining five teams (Niners, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens), there isn’t much difference in schedule strength other than the Ravens playing the weakest one of them all.
If that is your barometer, then the Ravens aren’t a bad play, but with the Bengals the division favorite, it’s a tough call. I don’t trust the Niners’ health, and I never trust the Cowboys, especially with them facing the Eagles and Giants — two playoff teams from last year — twice.
That leaves the Chiefs and Bengals. With Joe Burrow’s health still up in the air, I don’t want to give up any wins, so I will roll with the Chiefs (+600), who have a greater than 50% chance to win in each game on their schedule.
We didn’t need this entire exercise to land on the Super Bowl favorite Chiefs, but they should win their division easily and will likely get the No. 1 seed as they don’t have the hardest schedule and have been in the AFC title game for five straight years, so they are a good shot to hedge if you need to.
If you want to live a little dangerously, The Saints (+3000) are one of the 9.5 teams (projected nine wins) who have the easiest schedule in the NFL. My favorite future of the season is for them to go over 9.5 wins. So, that 10-win max is there for you, and you’d be holding a 30-1 ticket in a weak NFC. It may not be your jam, but it’s a sneaky option.
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[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-futures/topic:super-bowl-winner/variant:1/sportsbook:fanduel?id=f2bb21e4-3d36-424e-b7ea-96cc13e01969″]Blewis: I agree with the strategy here, but I have a different pick in mind from the two of you.
Like Katz and Bearman, I want to pick a team that I’m confident will win 10+ games and win my money back. Of the teams at the top of the Super Bowl odds leaderboard, the Bengals, Bills, and 49ers scare me the most.
I’m worried about a potential aggravation to Burrow’s calf injury with the Bengals in a very tough division, an even tougher division in the AFC East for the Bills, and the quarterback situation for the 49ers. I’m not implying that I don’t think those teams won’t get to at least 10 wins, just that they’re the riskiest of the Super Bowl favorites.
With that process of elimination, I’m left with the Chiefs and Eagles in the top five in Super Bowl odds.
The Chiefs have cleared 10 wins with ease in every season with Patrick Mahomes as the starter, so logic would infer they would be the easy pick. However, like Katz, I’m going to take the +200 points of value and go with the Eagles (+800).
The Eagles went 14-1 with Jalen Hurts as the starter last regular season. Regardless of the more difficult schedule, this team is too talented to go 9-8 or worse.
The biggest risk for them is injuries, of course, but that can happen to any team, obviously. They’re the second-safest bet, in my opinion, but I’m confident enough in them getting to 10+ wins that I’ll take the extra points of value. Plus, their road to the Super Bowl in the weak NFC should be far easier than the Chiefs in the AFC.
