The RB start/sit coin flips can be some of the most difficult week over week. They also tend to dictate matchups. Fantasy football managers who attempt to take the emotion out of it and evaluate the data are the ones who tend to have the most success. At the very least, you have a consistent process to fall back on — or you can rely on me.
Most managers like that option. I’ll take the blame if it goes sideways, and you can victory lap otherwise!
What should you make of the fringe options at the position this week? I’m glad you asked.
Data from TruMedia, unless stated
Which Running Backs Should Fantasy Managers Start in Week 2?
Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers (at MIN)
McCaffrey was a late scratch on Monday (to us at least, Mason implied that he knew he’d be featured entering the weekend), and Mason rewarded savvy fantasy managers with an RB5 finish.
The raw counting numbers are one thing, but if you’ve been reading my content, you know that I hardly look at the final results. I prefer to evaluate how the player got to his numbers; in Mason’s case, I’m buying. His production against the Jets was 21.7% over expectation, and he ranked third among running backs (over 15 carries) in our custom elusive rating.
MORE: FREE Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer
Nothing Mason did last week looks out of place on the surface. He did say in the postgame that he wasn’t sure how McCaffrey handles this role for four straight months, opening the door to speculation about whether he will again assume elite usage this week.
That notion along with the matchup (the Vikings allowed under a foot per carry before contact to running backs last week, third best) dragged Mason down to the average RB2 tier in my rankings, but he remains a fine bet. When it comes to evaluating some of the Week 1 RB breakouts in Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard, I’d rather start Mason due to the stability of his offensive environment.
J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers (at CAR)
Was there a more impressive player in Week 1 than Dobbins? He became the third Chargers back this millennium to have multiple carries of 45+ yards in a single game (LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner) and was running so hard that he earned a 59.3% snap share in a backfield that was believed to be Gus Edwards’ to open the season.
Harbaugh may not be a fantasy-friendly head coach, but he did tell us heading into last week that he’d ride the hot hand in the running game and he stayed true to that.
Of course, there are two sides to that coin. What happens when the big plays don’t happen?
Dobbins has played 25 games in his 4+ seasons as a pro, and that creates reasonable doubt when it comes to evaluating his long-term value.
But that’s not what this article is about. The touch count is never going to be elite, but the “hot hand” approach suggests that we should get another 12-15-touch afternoon in a good spot this week, and that lands Dobbins as an RB2 for me that I’m comfortable plugging in.
Selling Dobbins is an easy suggestion, but is anyone buying given his résumé? Enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts. Wins this time of year mean just as much as those in November when it comes to qualifying for the postseason.
Which Running Backs Should Fantasy Managers Sit in Week 2?
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (at JAX)
Are we sure Ford is even an average NFL running back? Or is he Rachaad White with less stability under center?
In 2023, no qualified running back gained yardage at a lower rate than Ford, and his 69-yard, 18-touch performance against the Cowboys last week wasn’t exactly inspiring. In keeping with the White comparison, he’s doing enough to justify starting him – he played 72.9% of the snaps and is versatile enough to bail you out with six short-yardage receptions.
The touch count seems to be safe as long as Nick Chubb is on the shelf, and that lands him in the Flex discussion. But with rushing efficiency a long shot and limited scoring equity, I think there’s a better shot he finishes outside of the top 35 running backs this weekend than inside the top 20.
Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers (at CAR)
We knew Edwards’ role was going to be thin and straightforward – pray for scoring chances.
Personally, that’s not a profile I’m comfortable chasing. If I am going to go that direction, it’s going to be in the form of an Ezekiel Elliott type who plays for an elite offense and has some versatility in his profile. That’s not what Edwards brings to the table, and with Dobbins producing at the level he did in Week 1, what is the touch upside here?
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Despite all of the success Dobbins experienced last Sunday, Edwards still did have the edge in red-zone touches. He’s not a player you give a second thought to in September – he’s a desperation play late in the season.
Edwards remains a roster-worthy player in most formats, even with very little in the way of short-term expectations.