Let’s take a look back at the RB goal-line usage from Week 7 in the context of the fantasy football season. Additionally, are there any players that we can identify based on goal-line usage who could be bye-week fill-in options this week?
Significance of Red-Zone Touches
Utilizing data going back to 2013 (including 2022), we can see where RBs find the most value in terms of fantasy points (fpts) per rushing attempt. The average value of a single rushing attempt anywhere on the field in that time span is 0.6 fpts.
However, as you would expect, we see a clear increase in value the closer we get to the goal line. Rushes between the 10 and 6-yard lines average 1.00.
Meanwhile, from the 5-yard line inwards, we see a huge jump in value to 2.55 fpts per rushing attempt. That value continues to rise as we move closer to the goal, with rushes from the 1-yard line averaging 3.4 fpts per rush attempt.
However, the most significant jump in value comes when we move from the 10 to six region to the 5-yard line (+1.55 fpts per rush). Therefore, for this article, we will focus on rushes beginning from the opponents’ 5-yard line or closer. These rushes will be referred to as “goal-line carries” for the duration of the article.
Goal-Line Carry Report From Week 7
In Week 7, there were 42 rushing plays from inside the 5-yard line, with 18 touchdowns scored on those attempts. Mecole Hardman was the only WR or TE to see a carry inside the 5-yard line. A further nine rushes were handled by QBs.
Of those, two each were handled by Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Justin Fields. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton, Kyler Murray, and Daniel Jones all had one goal-line carry each.
Here is a list of RBs to have two or more rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line in Week 7.
- Four carries: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
- Three carries: Tyler Allgeier, ATL
- Two carries:
- David Montgomery, CHI
- Trestan Ebner, CHI
- Eno Benjamin, ARI
- Keaontay Ingram, ARI
- Joe Mixon, CIN
- Tony Pollard, DAL
The Cowboys had the most goal-line opportunities in Week 7 of their entire season. Their seven goal-line opportunities more than doubled their season total to that point. Elliott took the majority of carries, but intriguingly all of his goal-line touches came in the second half, while Pollard had his two in the second quarter.
Elliott managed to find the end zone twice, while Pollard was turned away on both occasions. The two-to-one ratio in favor of Elliott reflects what we saw previously, with Elliott leading the goal-line carries six to three.
When it comes to the Falcons, their goal-line situation is very confusing. Allgeier had all three goal-line carries this week, but they were his first such touches of the season. For the year, Marcus Mariota and Caleb Huntley also have three goal-line carries, while Cordarrelle Patterson has one.
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The impending returns of Patterson and Damien Williams from the IR make this even more confusing. Allgeier is the Falcons’ lead back right now, and if Williams is not activated this week, his added goal-line role from Week 7 makes him an intriguing Week 8 starting RB option.
Speaking of confusing situations, the Chicago Bears backfield is exactly that. Coming into this game, Khalil Herbert had all eight goal-line carries but did not see a single one against the Patriots. The two goal-line carries for Ebner came in the fourth quarter when the Bears were resting Montgomery and Herbert in a blow-out win.
Previously, it was the case that Herbert was a weekly starting RB option because of his goal-line touches. However, with him seeing zero this week, that is frustrating for his upside going forward. Additionally, Fields now has six goal-line carries this year, which boosts his upside as a starting QB option for fantasy while also limiting the two main backs.
Ingram got his first goal-line touches this week, while Benjamin now has three in the last two weeks. James Conner leads the team with five goal-line carries and has a chance to be back this week. His return would likely see those opportunities shift back to him.
Mixon continues to dominate the goal-line opportunities in terms of the running game. He now has 12 on the season but has only found the end zone twice on those opportunities. He has already seen two goal-line targets, with no other back being involved around the goal line.
RB Goal-Line Passing Usage in Week 7 and the 2022 NFL Season
In Week 7, we only saw three RBs have a goal-line target. If we extend it out to the 10-yard line to increase the sample size, we have nine backs seeing targets inside that part of the field. Let’s take a look at those backs and put those targets into context with the rest of the season.
Raheem Mostert, MIA: In terms of RB target inside the 10-yard line, Mostert has now seen three of the last four. He has also seen the last two goal-line carries. This role inside the 10 now seems to have shifted from Chase Edmonds to Mostert. Combine that with double-digit rushing attempts and 13 targets in the last four weeks, and Mostert is now a must-start RB for fantasy.
Austin Ekeler, LAC: Ekeler had two targets inside the 10-yard line this week, one of which came inside the 5-yard line. Ekeler’s goal-line usage is frustrating. He is tied for the team lead in targets inside the 10-yard line this season with five. However, not having a single goal-line carry has stopped Ekeler from having an even higher fantasy potential than he is already delivering.
Antonio Gibson & J.D. McKissic, WAS: The Washington Commanders’ backfield is a confusing situation for fantasy managers. Both Gibson and McKissic saw targets inside the 10-yard line this week. Gibson caught his for a nine-yard touchdown as part of a day that saw him with 14 opportunities. Despite Brian Robinson seeing more work, Gibson is retaining solid Flex-level fantasy value, while McKissic’s value has seemingly disintegrated.
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Aaron Jones, GB: Jones is tied for the team lead in target inside the 10-yard line with four. In contrast, AJ Dillon has not seen a target inside the 10-yard line since Week 1. His usage in and around the goal line very much keeps Jones in starting consideration for fantasy managers. However, the lack of such opportunities for this Packers’ offense limits his upside.
Joe Mixon, CIN: As mentioned above, Mixon is the RB seeing all the work around the goal line for the Bengals. It means he remains an absolute must-start for fantasy right now.
Mark Ingram, NO: Somewhat strangely, Ingram is the only New Orleans Saints’ RB with a target inside the 10-yard line. He only has two, so he does not carry significant fantasy value, but it is concerning for Alvin Kamara’s ceiling. Kamara at least had the Saints’ only rushing attempt inside the 5-yard line this week.
Eno Benjamin, ARI: As we discussed above, Benjamin saw a total of three touches in and around the goal line this week. However, the potential return of Conner throws his usage up in the air until we see how this backfield shapes out when Conner is healthy and on the field consistently.
Dontrell Hilliard, TEN: This was Hilliard’s first target inside the 10-yard line since Week 1. Much like Ingram, Hilliard’s targets inside the 10-yard line are more of a concern for Derrick Henry’s ceiling than really boosting Hilliard’s value on a weekly basis.