My Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns prediction takes a look at two teams in very different places compared to where they were when the season was just starting. The Browns had acquired Deshaun Watson, mired in serious legal troubles, and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens were gearing up again for a run at a title. When the schedule was released, this was a game to circle because of the implications it could have.
Fast forward to now, and Lamar Jackson isn’t playing due to his latest injury. Deshaun Watson is back from an 11-game suspension, but two games in, he has been dreadful. The Ravens remain in contention due to replacement-level play from Tyler Huntley, who has been cleared to play in this one, while the Browns sit four games back in the division and two back for the final Wild Card spot.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction and Odds | Week 15
- Spread: Ravens +3
- Moneyline: Ravens +130
- Over/Under: Under 38
Ravens vs. Browns Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model is off to an excellent Week 15 start following Thursday Night Football. Five wagers were placed, and we hit on every one of them. For the season, the model is 82-39-5* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Baltimore vs. Cleveland prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit.
The Baltimore Ravens come into the Dawg Pound facing a Browns team that was hopeful at the start of the 2022 season. Despite his extremely serious legal troubles, fans continue to believe that Watson could lead them back to glory. In the two games he has been back, they have actually been substantially worse than they were with journeyman Jacoby Brissett.
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Already among the worst 10 teams in the league regarding points scored per minute of possession time with an average of .606 points per minute, with Watson, Cleveland hasn’t even been able to be half as good as that woeful number. In two games with Watson back, they have scored .18 and .31 points, respectively. If that could even be seen as respectful…
The Ravens’ defense, by contrast, is among the top 10 in the league in limiting opponents in point scoring per minute of possession time. They are giving up .59 points for every minute their opponent has the ball. This week, they will likely have the opportunity to improve upon that number against this Browns team.
On the other side of the ball, there is some worry. Lamar Jackson is missing time, again. Tyler Huntley has stepped in, and while he’s certainly not the dynamo Jackson is, he’s led them to victories and has kept Baltimore in first place in the AFC North. However, the team’s points scored per minute of possession time has been down since Huntley took over, and the offense has failed to show any level of explosion.
Luckily for them, the Browns are the second-worst team in football in preventing their opponents from scoring when they have the ball. The only team that is worse is the Detroit Lions. Cleveland’s mark of giving up .82 points for every minute their opponent has the ball should help the Ravens find some life.
The Behavior Bets model loves the Ravens in this one. They are three-point underdogs, and the model has them winning this game by three points. That’s a six-point swing on the spread for some pretty good value if you’re tailing the model. It could also be worth taking the Ravens on the moneyline. Given the woes of both offenses, this promises to be a low-scoring affair, even lower than the 38 points projected by the books.
Ravens, Browns Prediction
Ravens 17, Browns 14