The new resolution from the NFL has made for an intriguing playoff scenario in the Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals game in Week 18. Despite the Ravens being unable to match the Bengals on winning percentage due to the canceled Week 17 game, the Ravens could yet host the Bengals in the Wild Card round.
Let’s examine what scenarios are in play for both teams this week and which one leads us down the road of a coin flip to decide who hosts a playoff game.
Update: Bengals Take Care of Business vs. Ravens
The Bengals avoided the much talked about “coin flip” situation by defeating the Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Coupled with the Buffalo Bills’ win over the Patriots, the Bengals are locked into the AFC’s three seed.
For the Ravens, this loss has locked them into the sixth seed in the AFC and a matchup against these same Bengals next week on Wild Card Weekend. Because of Baltimore’s loss, the outcome of the Los Angeles Chargers game against the Broncos has no implications on the AFC playoffs. The Chargers will be the fifth seed in the AFC and take on the Jacksonville Jaguars next weekend.
Lots at Stake in the Bengals vs. Ravens Week 18 Game
With the game between the Bengals and the Buffalo Bills being canceled last week, the NFL standings and the AFC playoff picture are convoluted heading into Week 18. With the Bills and Bengals set to play just 16 games instead of 17, the NFL will decide its final standings based on win percentage.
Strictly speaking, the league always bases its standings on win percentage, but with an uneven number of games played by the 32 NFL teams, it is more noticeable this season.
However, with the AFC North being finalized in the favor of the Bengals due to the canceled game, the NFL has created a situation where the Ravens could host a playoff game. That is despite the Bengals being crowned division champions regardless of the outcome of Week 18.
Ravens Playoff Scenarios in Week 18
Heading into Monday’s game, the Ravens were 1.5 games behind the Bengals. Therefore, they needed Cincinnati to lose to the Bills to keep their hopes of winning the AFC North alive. With the cancelation, the best winning percentage the Ravens can finish with is 0.647 (11-6). Meanwhile, the Bengals cannot with a winning percentage below 0.688 (11-5).
As we mentioned above, whatever happens, the Bengals will be the AFC North champions this season. However, the NFL has put in place a ruling that if the Ravens beat the Bengals this week, they would get the opportunity to host the Bengals in the Wild Card round, depending on the outcome of a coin flip. However, the Ravens also need another result to go in their favor.
Entering this week, the Ravens can either finish as the fifth or the sixth seed, and the outcome of that will determine their chances of hosting a playoff game. For the coin flip to come into play, the Ravens need to be the sixth seed. The only way they can win and still be the sixth seed is if the Los Angeles Chargers also win in their game against the Denver Broncos.
If the Ravens win and the Chargers fail to win, Baltimore will be the fifth seed. That will see them go on the road to face the winner of the AFC South while the Chargers travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. If the Chargers match or better the Ravens result from this week, Los Angeles will be the fifth seed and Baltimore the sixth seed.
For those of you hoping for a coin flip to decide who hosts a playoff game, here is the scenario that needs to play out
- The Ravens defeat the Bengals
- The Chargers defeat the Broncos.
Bengals Playoff Scenarios in Week 18
Things are fairly complex for the Bengals this week as well. Not only do they have to worry about the potential of a coin flip deciding whether they host a playoff game if they lose, but they will also have half an eye on the two seed if they win.
The scenario for the Bengals to be on the road to the Ravens in the Wild Card round is laid out above. If they lose to the Ravens and the Chargers win, Cincinnati will be left waiting on the result of the coin flip.
The more positive way to look at the Bengals’ playoff picture and scenarios this week is that they could secure the potential to host two playoff games. If the Bengals win and the Bills lose to the New England Patriots, playoff tiebreakers will give the Bengals the two seed on account of an unassailable strength of victory.
Heading into the game, FiveThirtyEight gives the Bengals an 82% chance of defeating the Ravens. Combine that with the 50-50 potential of a coin flip, and the Bengals have more than a 90% chance of hosting at least one playoff game this postseason.