The Baltimore Ravens will face the Houston Texans in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Ravens and Texans skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Lamar Jackson, QB
The development of this Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken relationship is special. We knew it had the potential to take over, but the growth behind the gaudy box-score numbers is what has impressed me.
The two-time MVP, with two weeks to go, already has a career high in touchdown passes. Jackson has thrown for multiple scores in four straight games and in eight of his past nine. But it’s been the “how” that has me believing not only in this matchup and in his potential to make a run during the playoffs, but for years to come.
Last season, Jackson had a quick throw rate of 59.1%. That’s below league average, but it was above his career rate and a second straight season of increase. There seemed to be a level of wanting to maybe not “hide” Jackson as a passer, but in the first season in this system, there wasn’t a rush to ask him to progress through reads.
That’s changed this season, and it’s looked amazing. Jackson’s quick throw rate through 16 weeks sits at 53.6% of the time, and he looks as comfortable as ever in letting the aerial game come to him, understanding that his elite athleticism is there if need be.
In-pocket passer rating by season:
- 2021: 87.2
- 2022: 92.2
- 2023: 100.9
- 2024: 118.7
The Texans’ three lowest sack rates have all been posted in the second half of the season, making it difficult to envision Houston knocking Jackson off of his perch this week.
There’s inherent risk that comes with betting on Baltimore’s passing game, but it has nothing to do with the passing game. That Derrick Henry guy is always a threat to limit Jackson’s volume (seven sub-20 completion games this season), but now that we are getting quality through the air, I’m less worried today about that than I was four months — or even four weeks — ago.
C.J. Stroud, QB
No part of this season has been what you paid for from C.J. Stroud. He was quarterback off of most draft boards (don’t worry, the name closest to him in ADP at the position was Anthony Richardson, so it’s not as if you flipped a coin and landed on the wrong side).
If you’re anything like me, you didn’t want to fully punt on Stroud, understanding that Nico Collins is a special receiver who has the ability elevate those around him.
I mean, we’ve seen Courtland Sutton support Superman Bo Nix weeks and Calvin Ridley put Will Levis on streaming radars. We all prefer this Houston situation to those by a mile, so how bad could things really get?
And if you were really overthinking things, “at the very least, I get a competitive team hosting a Ravens team that can both push this offense to score while also being vulnerable through the air” likely crossed your mind. I know it did for me.
Now? Now, we’re in trouble, and I’m looking to stream out the position with my championship on the line.
Not great, Bob. Not great.
Stroud still has talent around him, but the loss of Tank Dell is impactful in more ways than one.
- Yards per attempt with Dell: 8.0
- Yards per attempt without Dell: 7.0 (down 12.5%)
- Air yards per non-pressured pass with Dell: 8.8
- Air yards per non-pressured pass without Dell: 6.6 (down 25%)
- Deep passer rating with Dell: 107.4
- Deep passer rating without Dell: 90 (down 16.2%)
To make matters worse, this matchup is no longer the cupcake we thought. Two months ago, we saw Jameis Winston carve Baltimore up (334 yards and three touchdowns), and in Week 10, Joe Burrow force-fed Ja’Marr Chase on his way to 428 yards and four scores.
At the very least, I thought a ceiling week had the potential of happening for Stroud, but that’s no longer the case. Since that Burrow explosion, Baltimore’s yards per pass allowed is down 25.3%, and I no longer trust Stroud to take advantage of the Ravens’ primary flaw — if you still believe it’s a weakness.
In his first 19 games, Stroud didn’t throw an interception on 147 deep pass attempts. Since then, he has six interceptions on 97 such attempts.
The Ravens are always a threat to dictate tempo (five games this season with over 33.5 minutes of possession). Although the Texans can do that as well, they haven’t been lately (three of their four lowest time of possession games this season have come since Week 12).
I can’t put Stroud in the Bo Nix (at CIN) or Kyler Murray (at LAR) tier this week. Heck, him or Richardson (at NYG) is something I struggled with ranking wise, though it’s unlikely to be a decision you’re actually faced with.
There may be a buy-the-dip situation with Stroud this summer, but for fantasy championships, I’m actively making excuses to look elsewhere.
Derrick Henry, RB
Inevitable.
I wish there was a better word for it, and maybe there is (I majored in math, not English), but it’s suitable. Derrick Henry has averaged over three yards per carry after contact in all four games since Thanksgiving, and it seems impossible to slow him for six straight minutes, let alone 60.
The dream of 2,000 yards on the ground isn’t dead (364 yards to go and four of his six career 200-yard rushing games have come against the Texans, two of which were Week 17 dates in Houston).
That’s about all we are watching at this point; You’re playing Henry every single week until he retires.
Justice Hill, RB
Week 17 Status: OUTFzay
Justice Hill enters Week 17 dealing with concussion protocol and a role that hasn’t seen him reach 10 touches since September. The best teams in the NFL have pieces that mean much more to them than to us – Hill epitomizes that.
In 2024, Hill’s role simply isn’t enough to be rostered in most situations.
Joe Mixon, RB
Joe Mixon disappointed last week in Arrowhead and now has three iffy outings over his past four. The lack of involvement in the passing game in Week 16’s loss was the culprit (one catch), as he had proven capable of pulling the PPR day out of the fire with 4-6 targets.
- Week 15 vs Dolphins: 12 carries for 23 yards, five catches for 33 yards
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 14 carries for 22 yards, five catches for 23 yards
The struggles in the run game could continue with the third-best run defense (success rate) coming to town, but I feel fine in projecting enough usage in the passing game to rank Mixon as an adequate RB2 this week.
It’ll be interesting to see how this offense functions sans Tank Dell, but my instinct is that we see plenty of vertical shots to Nico Collins and creative ways to get Mixon looks in space. You’re playing Houston’s unchallenged bell cow across the board.
Rashod Bateman, WR
Rashod Bateman has eight touchdowns in 15 games this season, not bad for a player who had four in 35 games through his first 35. Has anything really changed or is he just running hot?
His catch rate (61.9%) is in line with his career norm (61.4%) while his on-field target share is actually at a career low. The low volume is, naturally, the result of his routes extending further downfield (15.8-yard aDOT), and while I spent time earlier walking you through what I like about Lamar Jackson’s growth, this is too thin of a profile to bet on this time of year in this spot.
The Texans are the fourth-best yards-per-play defense in the league, a ranking that has been buoyed by them being the best defense against deep passes. Through 16 weeks, they’ve coughed up just 8.3 yards per deep pass, a mark that is more than three yards below the league average and removes any level of stability for a player who relies on those splash plays to pay off.
Every summer, we get hype videos and optimistic quotes about Bateman. He’s returned enough value this season because of the touchdown rate, but I’m still not sold on him as a viable weekly option. That goes for the final two weeks of this season and, barring significant changes, into next season.
Nico Collins, WR
You start Nico Collins every single week, and you start a WR1 facing Baltimore, making this a potential explosion spot for the Tank Dell-less Texans. Not one, not two, not three, but nine times this season have the Ravens allowed a receiver to clear 20 PPR (Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Malik Nabers, and Terry McLaurin are all on that list, the names you’d expect).
Why can’t Collins add to that list?
The Ravens are the fifth-worst defense when it comes to slowing the deep ball in terms of yards per attempt and interception rate. I believe that Houston pushes Collins’ average route further down the field sans Dell, and while that introduces some weekly variance, I’m happy to gamble in this spot.
Tank Dell, WR
Tank Dell was responsible for half of Houston’s receiving yards at the time of the injury and was having his best game of the year with one of the better matchups possible looming.
All injuries hurt and, of course, our fantasy concerns are so secondary in a situation like this, but the fact that the Dell/C.J. Stroud was showing signs of potency at the perfect time had to have managers fighting for a title thinking that they had an optimal title piece.
Those dreams have been dashed and Dell’s 2025 evaluation is now muddied. We can cross that bridge as we get into his rehab process, but this is a brutal end to a sophomore season that failed to live up to the promise he showcased in 2023.
Zay Flowers, WR
Week 17 Status: PLAYING
Zay Flowers is coming off his fifth 100-yard performance of the season, and while the production hasn’t leaped forward the way most of us (hand up) expected, he has strung together five straight double-digit performances (four without the benefit of a TD), and that counts for something.
The problem is pretty clear — he’s not going to score with any sort of regularity with how this offense is structured. How crazy is it that the Ravens have scored 88 points over the past three weeks and that their WR1 doesn’t have a single red-zone target in the process?
It is what it is. Starting him is a bet on talent and is one I’m willing to make. Lamar Jackson has come his way on at least one-quarter of throws when he’s on the field, and with the Texans allowing the sixth-most yards per catch after the reception this season, I don’t think a second straight 15+ point PPR performance is at all out of the question.
Robert Woods, WR
Whether it is the fact that Robert Woods has been on three different rosters in four years, has one 20-yard catch over the past calendar year, or is 32 years old – it’s easy to write him off as a fantasy asset these days. To add fuel to that fire, he’s produced at least 25% under PPR expectations in each of his past three seasons.
It’s possible that we will never get another impactful performance from Bobby Trees. That said, I like the strategic move of adding him. The Tank Dell injury (dislocated knee cap) opens up usage potential in a spot against at Ravens defense that is much more vulnerable through the air than on the ground.
I’m not ranking Woods as a starter and you’d really have to be in a rough spot to slot him in. Hopefully that’s not the case for you, but could it be for your opponent? Do you have a handcuff still rostered that is behind a healthy starter and thus holding no real value?
Then why not? Why not add a player in an offense that has top-10 upside this week, if for no other reason to ensure that it’s one fewer option for your opponent?
Realistically, I’d play receivers like Michael Wilson (at Rams), Alec Pierce (at Giants), or Christian Watson (at Vikings) over Woods this week. At best, he’s a bail out PPR plug-in that you’re hoping ekes out 10 points. But I like him to be the most valuable of the widely-available waiver wire options and in the name of taking away one of your opponent’s paths to production, I would make the claim.
Mark Andrews, TE
Mark Andrews has been a score-every-other-game guy over the past three seasons, and with a touchdown in four straight, he’s filling a very specific role in this prolific offense. In those contests, he’s been targeted on 50% of his red-zone routes, a massive spike from his 22.2% rate through the first 11 weeks of this season.
Yes, his touchdown last week was very clearly a defensive miscommunication more than anything the Ravens did right, but part of being fortunate is being in position to be fortunate, right?
The Texans own the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL. While I’m not willing to say that Andrews will score in every game the rest of the season, it’s clear that Todd Monken has penciled him in for a very specific — and fantasy-friendly — role.
Isaiah Likely, TE
Isaiah Likely scored last week and has caught all five of his targets on 32 routes over the past two games, but with Mark Andrews being used as the Mike Alstott of tight ends, is there really enough meat on the bone to make Likely’s upward ticking snap share worth much in our game?
I remain intrigued by this athletic profile and the creativity of this offense — consider me on board with drafting him again in 2025, but for the sake of the home stretch for 2024, you can do better.
Dalton Schultz, TE
Don’t look now, but Dalton Schultz has cleared 15 PPR points in two of three games and earned at least seven looks in three of five. His role stands to gain value this week given the matchup (Baltimore is a bottom-10 defense in yards per pass, yards per completion, and opponent TD/INT rate) and loss of Tank Dell, putting him in position to be trusted more now – with all the chips in the middle of the table – than at any point prior this season.
Fun.
I’m not considering Schultz a must start, but if he’s as viable as any option outside of that top tier. That is going to result in him being used this week. He saw two end zone targets on Saturday afternoon – that’s great if you want to read into it as a developing trend, but less so if you realize that they were his first looks like that since mid-October.