The Baltimore Ravens are 10-5, and now much closer to a home playoff game after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers for a tie atop the AFC North. They are playing fantastic football on both sides of the ball as of late, helping Lamar Jackson earn the second-highest MVP odds.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are 9-6 and have clinched the AFC South. The loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week was brutal given the loss of Tank Dell but not crushing for their playoff aspirations. Christmas will offer them the opportunity to make up some ground.
With a win over Baltimore and a Kansas City victory, the Texans would be in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s No. 3 seed. Regardless, they will need more out of C.J. Stroud if they truly want to compete in the playoffs. Beating the Ravens on Wednesday could add credibility to a questionable playoff run.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans Betting Lines, Odds, Game Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -5.5 - Moneyline
Ravens (-245); Texans (+200) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Game Time
4:30 p.m ET - Location
NRG Stadium
Ravens vs. Texans Preview and Prediction
Baltimore is ranked first in EPA (expected points added) per play and success rate on offense this season. They also rank sixth in explosive passing rate and first in explosive rushing rate. According to TruMedia, Derrick Henry and Jackson account for 35.97% of their explosive plays — solely on the ground. That figure doesn’t even include plays where Jackson buys time with his legs and threads a needle downfield.
The rushing game is slightly more efficient under center than in shotgun, but the offense fares better in shotgun; likely because of Jackson’s Houdini-like talent. To no one’s surprise; the Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Chiefs are the top three teams in EPA outside of the pocket since 2018. There’s your argument to put Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen in their own tier of elite quarterbacks.
This season, Baltimore is the top team by EPA outside of the pocket. In these scenarios, Jackson has 8.6 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a passer rating of 120.4. Even so, Houston will hope to generate enough pressure to knock Jackson off his game and into mistakes out of structure.
Despite two dominant pass rushers in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, the Texans lack consistent pressure. They rank 15th in quick pressure rate this season but are second in pressure-to-sack rate. When they do get pressure, they get results out of it, although that may be unsustainable. Houston ranks fifth in defensive EPA when generating pressure.
The secondary, though, doesn’t match up well with Baltimore’s offense because it tends to give up explosive plays. The Texans rank 17th and 20th in passing and rushing explosive play rate allowed, respectively.
Offensively, Houston has been a major disappointment this season. Ranking 23rd in offensive EPA per play, injuries are only a part of the unit’s regression. The explosiveness from last season isn’t there, nor is the consistency.
From 2023 to 2024, the Texans have gone from 12th in likely-pass situations to 23rd but 20th in late-down situations to 10th. This means they can remain multidimensional but lack potency on early downs. I think this is a result of becoming more predictable with play-calling. Houston averages a distance of 8.13 yards on third downs, the second-longest mark in the league behind only the Seattle Seahawks.
Conversely, the Ravens’ defense ranks 19th in EPA but sixth in success rate. The key here is their absolute inability to prevent explosive passes. Baltimore ranks 28th in passes of 20+ yards but first in rushes of 10+ yards. That hasn’t been a result of poor tackling, either.
Whatever the case may be; the defense has been largely let off the hook because of Henry and Jackson leading the league’s scariest offense. I think this game will mostly play out in the same way with the defense having to do just enough to let the offense take over.
My pick: Ravens -245
The over has hit in all but three Ravens games. Those three games came against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills, and the first matchup with the Steelers. The Buffalo game was a blowout that didn’t demand second-half scoring; the other two were losses against top-flight defenses. In games with an over/under above 46.5, the over is 7-3.
The over is 5-9 in Texans games which checks out given the offense’s underwhelming campaign. They have been in six games with an over/under above 46.5 — only one of those overs hit.
With over/under bets, sportsbooks typically offer -110 odds, which is an implied probability of 52.38%. In cases such as these where both teams have clear tendencies that combat each other; I wouldn’t suggest taking either side.