The Baltimore Ravens will face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Ravens skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Lamar Jackson, QB
I’m old enough to remember when there was talk about Lamar Jackson needing to change positions. He’s developed into a true dual threat where defenses have no real answer. This season, he has …
- 11 games with multiple TD passes and zero INTs
- 13 games with 40+ rushing yards
- Five games with a 25+ yard carry
The Steelers, in Week 16, bottled up Jackson and held him without a 10-yard run, the only such game for the reigning MVP this season (nine carries for 22 yards). Across two games with Pittsburgh, Jackson completed just 55.4% of his passes (all other games: 68.2%).
I’m not too worried about it.
Over the last two seasons under Todd Monken, Jackson has been a different QB:
- 2023-24: 66.9% completion rate, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7.0% TD rate, and 1.2% INT rate
- Previously in his career: 63.7% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.1% TD rate, and 2.3% INT rate
I’m happy to bet on two years of data over two data points from this season. Jackson offers plenty of upside, and if his ownership numbers do not project to be within shouting distance of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels, I have no issue going in this direction.
Derrick Henry, RB
Too much pride in Pittsburgh?
Derrick Henry has produced 25.2% over expectations against the Steelers this season. While he is more than capable of doing that against any defensive structure, I find it odd that Pittsburgh loaded the box on just 38.5% of his career (the rest of the NFL: 50.3%).
Henry has produced 40.3% over expectations in three career postseason games; given the direction of things, running through worn-down defenses might be standard over the next month.
- Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
- Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)
It shouldn’t be overlooked that Baltimore’s bye came five weeks after Pittsburgh’s. The Ravens are the more talented and physical team with less fatigue and a projected positive game script. There’s always the risk that this game is an ugly AFC North battle like we’ve seen in the past, but Henry is in a great spot, even against a strong defense that has already seen him twice.
Justice Hill, RB
Justice Hill has missed consecutive games, first with a concussion and now with an illness being mentioned in the most recent injury report.
His availability is important to the Ravens, but fantasy managers need not worry. The appeal of Hill’s skill set comes in a negative game script, something that rarely happens these days for Baltimore and is even less so when facing Pittsburgh – the last time they lost a game against the divisional rival by more than one possession was October of 2017.
If you think the road team controls this game, there’s low-end PPR value to chase should Hill be cleared to play (eight targets on 25 routes against the Steelers this season), but that’s an awfully risky way to structure a DFS roster.
Rashod Bateman, WR
Rashod Bateman saved you if you were forced to go in this direction for the Week 16 meeting between these two teams with a 14-yard touchdown, but three catches on eight targets across two regular season matchups (-0.67 EPA per target) isn’t exactly the type of form you love to see.
The Steelers proved themselves as the best defense in the league when it comes to getting off the field on third downs this regular season, and secondary pieces like Bateman are the ones who end up feeling that the most. Baltimore’s WR2 continues to lose value on the fringes the deeper you dive.
Lamar Jackson threw a play-action touchdown pass in both Pittsburgh games this season, averaging 10.1 yards per attempt when pulling the ball back out from the belly of a back. In theory, you’d think that such a play structure would allow Bateman to earn targets at an increased rate, buying him time to work his way down the field, but that simply hasn’t been the case.
Ravens pass catchers’ play-action target rates, 2024:
- Zay Flowers: 34.8%
- Mark Andrews: 31.5%
- Charlie Kolar: 28%
- Nelson Agholor: 21.4%
- Isaiah Likely: 21.2%
- Bateman: 20.2%
Maybe Todd Monken pulls out all the stops in the third meeting, but the two previous matchups along with the overall 17-game data set from the regular season have me confident in passing on Bateman in all formats.
Should Flowers be sidelined, Bateman’s value obviously ticks up, but considering that I am below market in the first place with his ability to thrive in this system, my ranking/projection isn’t going to surpass what the market does in this instance, keeping me uninvested.
Zay Flowers, WR
Flowers isn’t playing this weekend due to a knee injury. It goes without saying that this is a situation worth monitoring.
For playoff-long formats, I’d keep an eye on things as long as possible, but your instinct is going to fade any uncertain situation. I don’t have a problem with that, but it’s also not unique. If Flowers’ status is TBD when you’re drafting, his ADP is going to sink, and it’s on you to determine when the right time to pounce is.
I love the player, but even if he were playing, I don’t like this Wild Card matchup. If you think Baltimore advances, then we are in a buy situation because I do like how Flowers’ skill set plays in a likely matchup with the Bills.
For this weekend, we have two games of data when it comes to how Baltimore’s offense wants to utilize its WR1 in this specific spot, and, to be honest, I wasn’t loving it.
Flowers posted a 14+ yard aDOT in both Steelers games during the regular season, something that is very much outside of his normal usage pattern (three such games all season when not facing Pittsburgh). Those targets, naturally, come with more risk, which was reflected in his 50% catch rate across those two games (otherwise: 65.7%).
The more you dive into the target data, the more bizarre things get. We are looking at the smallest of samples, but a 19.5-yard aDOT from the slot doesn’t happen by accident (all other games: 6.6-yard aDOT from the slot). If I’m investing in Flowers in any given week, I’m doing it with the understanding that I’m betting on efficiency.
I’m not betting on splash plays; Rashod Bateman does that.
I’m not betting on touchdowns; Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews do that.
If I’m not confident in the type of routes that are going to be run or the health, how could I have justified going in this direction? Add in the fact that this is expected to be a positive game script for Baltimore, and I was having a hard time seeing Flowers being worth the risk this week.
Isaiah Likely, TE
Keep reading, and you’ll get my anti-Mark Andrews stance. And if that comes through, a pro-Isaiah Likely angle is a good way to benefit.
The 24-year-old has caught seven of eight targets for 104 yards and a score against Pittsburgh this season on just 35 routes. That’s a tiny sample, but Likely’s 56.9% snap share and 20.5% on-field target share at least have my interest in this specific matchup.
We know the TE position has touchdown equity given Andrews’ success, and I don’t think the market is valuing Likely’s potential to walk into an advantageous role properly. Given Baltimore’s potential to win multiple games, this is a path I’m interested in going for postseason-long formats.
Mark Andrews, TE
Are we at least a little concerned that Mark Andrews might be fancy Nick Westbrook-Ikhine?
Obviously, Andrews’ résumé trumps that of Tennessee’s WR, but we are looking at a very thin profile that relies on touchdowns at an uncomfortable level. If there was a change in usage, maybe I could get there, but there really hasn’t been:
- 2024: Targeted on 28.3% of red-zone routes and had 11 TDs
- 2023: Targeted on 35% of red-zone routes and had six TDs
More magnified, when looking closer at things, are the signs of decline. Andrews’ YAC is down 15% from his career norm, and his on-field target share this season set a new career low.
I’m out.
I’m choosing to overlook the fact that Andrews has been targeted on 24.3% of his routes against the Steelers this season (all other games: 18.8%), as I’m not sold on that being too sticky. We’ve seen a better version of Andrews vanish in the postseason before (single-digit PPR points in five of six career postseason games with no touchdowns on those 169 routes).
Andrews’ name and his scoring have set expectations (in all fantasy formats and in the betting markets) too high for me to invest in any positive stance.
