The Sunday, Jan. 19 Divisional Round game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills carries a historic downside for the loser.
The team that falls short in the Ravens-Bills matchup will hold a dubious distinction: the most wins in a seven-season span without reaching the Super Bowl in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). The Bills currently sit atop that list with the Ravens right behind them.
With everything on the line in the Divisional Round finale, let’s lock in on some NFL betting lines.
Remember — for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two or three-leg parlays. Also, in the same light, it’s worth noting that if you like several of these lines, it could be worth teasing them down a bit before combining them if you’re building a parlay.
Our Favorite Player Props and Game Lines
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are widely expected to be the top two vote-getters in this season’s NFL MVP race. This matchup could mark only the ninth instance in the past 45 seasons where the top two MVP vote-getters have faced each other in the playoffs.
The MVP winner’s team has emerged victorious in six of the last seven such meetings. The last runner-up to win was Drew Brees in Super Bowl 44 after the 2009 season when his New Orleans Saints defeated Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts.
Both Jackson and Allen were first-round picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. Since then, the Bills have won 83 games (including playoffs) while the Ravens have won 81. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have won more during that span. In a highly anticipated matchup, who should we put our money on?
Justice Hill, 3+ Receptions, (-155)
In a game where the Bills’ defense will pressure Jackson to beat them with his arms and not his legs, I see a nice spot for Justice Hill to flourish.
Hill has gone over 3+ receptions in three of his last four games, and he faces a Bills defense that will have its hands full with Derrick Henry and Jackson. Without Zay Flowers in the lineup last week, Hill caught four balls and should continue to see some looks in the underneath passing game.
Lamar Jackson, 60+ Rushing Yards (+105)
In Jackson’s last six games, he’s cruised past the 60-yard rushing line five times. This demonstrates that, as the pressure ratchets up in each game, Jackson is more liable to tuck and run if the defense gives him anything at all versus waiting for a big play.
We saw this last weekend in their Wild Card matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the regular season, the Ravens beat the Steelers in a similar game script as their Wild Card win last week. In the regular season, Jackson had nine rushes for 22 yards. Last week? Fifteen rushes for 81 yards.
I think the Bills will do all they can to stop Henry in this one, and I like Jackson to take advantage of that in the air — and on the ground.
Mark Andrews, Anytime TD (+160)
It’s been a wild ride with Mark Andrews this season. He went from one of the league’s most dominant tight ends in previous years to barely being used at the beginning of the 2024 season. However, Andrews has scored a touchdown in seven of his last nine games — a crazy number given his overall usage.
What does this tell us? Jackson feels comfortable throwing to Andrews, especially in the red zone.
Again, there is no Flowers in this one, and the Ravens will have to score points to keep up with a hot Bills offense. If any Raven will get a look (or two) in the end zone from Jackson, Andrews has the highest current probability.
Sunday Funday Parlays
I like this game to be high-scoring. I know both defenses can play, but we’ve got a matchup between the top two MVP candidates, with not just this season on the line but legacies as well. I like both QBs to ball out in this one, so that’s why I’m getting a little extra spicy with two Sunday parlays.
Parlay 1 (+170)
- Justice Hill, 2+ Receptions (-450): has surpassed this mark in seven of the last eight games played.
- Isaiah Likely, 3+ Receptions (-200): has surpassed this mark in six of the last seven games played.
- Derrick Henry, anytime TD (-205): five TDs in his last three games.
Parlay 2 (+196)
I know this is asking for a lot of points, but … that’s what I want — so I’m sprinkling. I don’t just want this to happen, however; I have two sets of stats to back it up.
- Josh Allen, 2+ Passing TD (-120): has surpassed this mark in five of the last six games played.
- Lamar Jackson, 2+ Passing TD (-115): has surpassed this mark in all of the last six games played.
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.
