Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman spent far too much of his rookie season playing behind Sammy Watkins. Once Bateman got on the field, he proved capable of being a WR1 in the NFL. Unfortunately, being a WR1 in Baltimore is not necessarily a good situation for fantasy football. What can fantasy managers expect from Bateman in the 2022 season, and should you select him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Rashod Bateman’s fantasy outlook for 2022
The Ravens franchise has been around since 1996. Yet, at no point have they had a young potential WR1. Typically, this team just signs veterans at a very specific point in their careers: past their prime but not quite done. In 2022, the Ravens are committed to giving Bateman a chance to be their WR1 of the future.
As a rookie, Bateman missed the first five weeks of the season with a groin strain he sustained at training camp. In his Week 6 debut, Bateman immediately played a prominent role, leading the team in targets.
From that point forward, it was an up-and-down rookie season for Bateman. His snap share was consistently around 65% for the first four games. It shot up to 70% in Week 11 before inexplicably plummeting to 45% the next two weeks. After posting his best game of the season in Week 14 with over 100 receiving yards, Batemen closed out the season as a near-every-down player.
Bateman wound up averaging 8.6 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie. All things considered, it really wasn’t that bad. He managed to reach 515 receiving yards as well. He’s now in a position to take a significant step forward as a sophomore.
How the Ravens’ depth chart impacts Rashod Bateman’s fantasy projection for the season
I expected the Ravens to sign a veteran wide receiver. They did not. Bateman is their clear WR1. When they traded Marquise Brown to the Cardinals and then didn’t draft a wide receiver, they knew full well what they were doing.
Last season, the Ravens ran the most plays in the NFL at 1,028. They also threw the ball 54.2% of the time. Both their pace of play and pass-heaviness were a product of their collapsing defense ravaged by injuries.
In 2022, their defense should hopefully be much healthier, and their offensive line should be improved. The Ravens are going to look to return to their run-heavy approach. There’s very little chance this team attempts 611 passes again. The bad news for Bateman is the overall target pie will be smaller. The good news is it’s a very consolidated pie.
Bateman’s target share should be high
Bateman commanded a respectable 16% target share as a rookie. Here are Mark Andrews’ target shares for the past three seasons: 24%, 25.5%, and 26.5%. Last season, Hollywood Brown’s target share was nearly identical to Andrews’. Bateman should be able to work up to that 25% range this season. Even if Jackson goes back to the guy who attempted just 25 passes per game in 2020, that still puts Bateman over 100 targets for the season.
In all likelihood, Jackson will be closer to 28-29 attempts per game. Over half his targets should go to Andrews and Bateman. Consolidated target shares are great for fantasy football.
Bateman may not have WR1 upside in a low-volume passing offense, but he should at least be a fantasy WR3 and one with mid-to-low-WR2 upside if things break right.
Bateman’s ADP for 2022
Bateman’s ADP is around 90th overall in PPR as the WR38. This is one of those instances where the composite ADP seems to be skewing reality. That ADP is heavily biased by a 136th overall ADP on NFL.com. Realistically, it is hard to fathom Bateman going this late in most of your leagues. He’s more likely to go around WR30.
At that price, I’m mostly in on Bateman. I waffled back and forth for a while, but ultimately, I settled on this: Bateman is a talented sophomore wide receiver playing with a quarterback I expect to finish among the top two at the position.
While Jackson will not throw anywhere near as much as last season, he’s still going to throw passes. When he does, they will mostly go to Andrews and Bateman.
Sophomore wide receivers on good offenses are historically good bets in fantasy football. Bateman fits a lot of the criteria of a breakout wide receiver. He currently sits just above his ADP as the WR34 and 82nd overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings. The key takeaway is that Bateman is a slight value for us at his ADP, but not so much of a value you should reach significantly for him.