Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman has battled injuries over the first two years of his career. As a result, he’s been unable to prove himself as the Ravens’ WR1. With more target competition but possibly a more pass-friendly offense, could this be the year Bateman breaks out? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Rashod Bateman’s Fantasy Outlook
This is pretty much the last chance for Bateman. While he’s shown flashes over his first two professional seasons, if a wide receiver doesn’t break out by Year 3, the odds of it ever happening completely crater.
Over his first two seasons, Bateman has averaged 8.6 and 8.9 PPR fantasy points per game, respectively. He’s also played just 18 of a possible 34 games.
Our 2021 sample size is Bateman as a rookie, where he didn’t even play until Week 6 and was mostly a backup until Week 15.
Our 2022 sample size consists of just six games, but what we did see was slightly concerning. Despite the Ravens having one of the worst and shallowest receiving corps in the league, Bateman played fewer than 70% of the snaps each of the first three weeks of the season.
In Week 4, that plummeted to 44%. He played 54% of the snaps in Week 7, and in Week 8, Bateman broke his foot after just a handful of plays, ending his season.
The Ravens going out and making several additions to their receiving corps shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as an indictment on Bateman. By the end of last season, Tyler Huntley, filling in for an injured Lamar Jackson, was throwing to the likes of Demarcus Robinson, DeSean Jackson, and Sammy Watkins.
However, Baltimore adding Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor, while using a first-round pick on Zay Flowers, presents Bateman with more target competition than he’s had his entire career.
The Ravens are already one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. Since 2019, they’ve run the ball at a 50% clip, the highest rate in the league. It’s certainly fair to project more passing with Todd Monken stepping in as offensive coordinator, but when you have a quarterback like Jackson, you’re still going to run more than the league average.
This is also a team that runs a lot of 12 and 22 personnel. Again, Monken could change things, but the Ravens don’t use three-receiver sets very often. If last season was any indication, that lone receiver out there when they only have one on the field may not be Bateman.
Rushing quarterbacks are bad for wide receivers in fantasy. But they’re not as bad if the team has a dominant WR1. We have no evidence Bateman is that guy. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Beckham was the WR1 or if he and Bateman shared the role. Flowers will likely be the primary slot receiver.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Bateman at His ADP?
All of this is to say fantasy managers are justified in curbing their enthusiasm for Bateman this season. This is evident in his WR51 ADP, No. 135 overall, which is four spots behind Flowers and seven spots behind Beckham.
We know Mark Andrews is going to lead Baltimore in target share. While there’s room for a second fantasy-relevant option, as we saw in 2020 and 2021 when Marquise Brown commanded a 26% target share, there’s no guarantee it will be Bateman.
The good news is Bateman’s ADP reflects that, making it more affordable to take the shot on him if you think he can be that guy.
My projections have Bateman catching 61 passes for 794 yards and 4.9 touchdowns. I have him averaging 10.0 ppg and finishing as the WR47, which is pretty close to his ADP.
I have Bateman ranked at WR47, right in line with consensus. If he ends up being the clear guy in Baltimore, he’ll be a value at that price. However, his usage in limited action last season points to the team not believing he can be that guy. At a point, the upside is worth it. For me, that’s where I have Bateman ranked. I’m not fading him entirely, but I won’t go out of my way to draft him, either.