Rashid Shaheed was actually released by the New Orleans Saints this time last year, but injuries resulted in his elevation to the active roster, and he impressed. Sure, he only saw 34 targets as a rookie, but he turned them into 488 yards and a pair of touchdowns, displaying game-breaking potential in the process. There is plenty to like in his fantasy football profile, but Shaheed will have to overcome a quarterback change and even further target competition in 2023.
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Rashid Shaheed’s Fantasy Outlook
The Saints’ offense is going to look quite a bit different than it did last season. Derek Carr comes over from Vegas to replace Andy Dalton as the starter under center, and Michael Thomas’ return to action looms.
Carr is coming off of a down year, but just two seasons ago, he flirted with 5,000 yards through the air. At the very least, prior to last season, Carr has a track record of a high completion percentage that carries a level of offensive stability with it.
Thomas figures to vacuum in plenty of targets (assuming reasonable health), but they are unlikely to come at the expense of Shaheed. The volume pass-game role in the middle of the field holds a ton of value to an offense built around burners like this one, so the return of Thomas would actually make me more confident in Shaheed’s ability to sneak into the weekly Flex conversation.
Of course, the Alvin Kamara situation looms, but I’m not sure Shaheed’s value is impacted much by it. If Kamara plays, the uptick in offensive potential is likely to offset any minor dip in target share.
Should a heavy suspension be levied, Shaheed is very much a candidate for those “get an athlete in space” quick hitters that would open up, given presumed starter Jamaal Williams’ limitations as a pass catcher.
How Impactful Will the QB Change Be to Shaheed’s Weekly Value?
In hearing “Derek Carr,” it’s unlikely that you immediately get excited about the prospects of a big-play receiver. Don’t make that mistake. Don’t be the fantasy manager that gets stuck in their ways and believes things can’t change.
Derek Carr’s aDOT:
- 2018-19: 6.38 yards
- 2020-21: 7.78 yards
- 2022: 8.73 yards
That, friends, is a trend. A trend that very much works in Shaheed’s favor. Of course, there is concern about a skill duplication between him and Chris Olave. That is true to a degree, but it is worth noting that Shaheed can be an in-space receiver as much as he can be a field stretcher.
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It’s not a big sample, but he did average 17.4 yards per catch last season despite an aDOT that was 16.6% lower than that of Olave. Carr has completed at least 70% of his short passes (10 or fewer air yards) in each of the past eight seasons, something that should inspire confidence about his ability to maximize the skills of Shaheed.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Shaheed at His ADP?
He is priced well outside of the top 150 players, making him basically an all-reward, no-risk proposition in the later stages of your draft. I’m in! I’m a fan of Donovan Peoples-Jones, and I’ll follow a similar train of thought in drafting Shaheed: matchup-based receivers that carry top-25 upside in any given week as a result of his situation/role.
The deeper your league, the more interested I am in Shaheed, and he (along with DPJ, for that matter) will be a DFS tournament option for me on a regular basis in 2023.