After months of waiting, we are just two days away from the opening game of the 2024 NFL season. Your first fantasy football matchup of the year is about to kick off, which means there are already some decisions to make.
Should fantasy managers start Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice or his teammate Xavier Worthy against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night?
Should You Start Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy This Week?
The answer to this question is yes. Starting talented Kansas City players usually works out well. Although the Chiefs are coming off their worst offensive season of the Patrick Mahomes era, they also had their worst group of offensive skill players since Mahomes has been under center.
This year, the Chiefs have a lot more talent on offense. A big part of that is Rice’s expected continued ascent and the arrival of first-round rookie Worthy.
While Rice and Worthy are both startable, the PFN Start/Sit Optimizer does not have this close at all. Rice is projected for 13.2 fantasy points versus 9.1 for Worthy.
In my personal rankings, Rice is WR24, and Worthy is WR38. I am not down on Worthy by any means; WR38 is borderline startable, but Rice is just a sure thing.
Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook This Week
Almost one year to the day, Rice was a largely unheralded late-second-round rookie making his NFL debut. He barely played, running all of 11 routes. Yet, he made his presence felt immediately, scoring the first Chiefs touchdown of the season.
Rice’s Week 1 score did not jump-start his season. It was another five weeks before he crested a 60% snap share, and it wasn’t until Week 14 that he became a full-time starter.
Over the second half of last season, though, Rice produced WR1 numbers. He was the clear best receiver on Kansas City, excelling after the catch. Rice averaged 8.3 yards after catch per reception, second to only Deebo Samuel, who very well may go down as the greatest after-the-catch receiver in NFL history.
Over the past 10 seasons, Rashee Rice is the only WR to run 350+ routes and finish a season with a yard per route run rate above 2.00 with an average depth of target below 6 yards.
If we expand the parameters to 'aDOT < 8 yards,' this is the group: pic.twitter.com/rYTixakDzk
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) January 15, 2024
Simply put, Rice is good at football. As a rookie, Rice became the first receiver to catch seven or more passes in four straight games where Mahomes started at QB. The volume is going to be there, which is one of the reasons Rice’s over being set at 5.5 receptions is one of my favorite prop bets of the week.
The Ravens are certainly a tougher matchup than we’d prefer, and this game could be lower-scoring than expected. They allowed 26 TDs last season, the fewest for a year since we moved to a 17-game regular season. Even if Rice doesn’t score, he’s a good bet to catch five to six passes for around 50-60 yards, making him very startable.
Xavier Worthy Fantasy Outlook this Week
All of the matchup data regarding Rice applies to Worthy. The main difference is obviously the player. We just don’t have anything to work with here.
For Worthy, we know how good we think he will be. I have confidence he will at least be a fantasy WR3 over the course of the season. But will that start this week?
With Hollywood Brown out, Worthy does project to start in two-receiver sets opposite Rice. That puts him in line to see much more volume much earlier than Rice did last season.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
At the same time, Worthy is still a rookie playing his first regular season game. As a perceived burner, his stat line could be very boom-or-bust. The Chiefs will undoubtedly take at least one shot deep to him this season. Will it connect? Whether it does could make or break Worthy’s stat line.
As a reminder, Worthy broke the 40-time record at 4.21. He is technically the fastest player in NFL history. Need I remind you what happened the last time Mahomes had a receiver with otherworldly speed?
If you drafted Worthy as your WR3 or Flex, do not be afraid to start him. He is a big play waiting to happen.
However, if the decision is between Worthy or Rice, at least right now, it should be no contest.