After an insanely slow start to the 2023 season for the usually high-powered Kansas City Chiefs offense, Rashee Rice emerged as a big-time fantasy producer over the back end of his rookie campaign.
Yet, after an offseason filled with off-field issues and the addition of multiple explosive playmakers to the receiver room, what can fantasy football managers expect from Rice in 2024?
Should You Select Rashee Rice at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 82nd Overall (WR36)
- Strong Finish to 2023: After a slow start, Rice emerged as a key fantasy contributor, finishing as WR27 in full-PPR formats with 79 receptions, 938 yards, and seven touchdowns. From Weeks 8 to 17, he was the WR16, averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game.
- Red-Zone Usage: Rice’s involvement in the red zone was significant, with more red-zone targets than Travis Kelce over the back half of the season. This suggests trust from Patrick Mahomes in crucial scoring situations.
- YAC Ability: Rice excelled after the catch, ranking third among all receivers with 654 yards after the catch. His role in the slot and underneath routes maximized his run-after-catch skills.
- Increased Competition: The addition of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy introduces more competition for targets. Worthy’s ability to play both vertically and underneath could impact Rice’s target share in 2024.
- Potential Suspension: Off-field issues could lead to a suspension for Rice, affecting his availability and draft value. This uncertainty makes his ADP volatile as draft season approaches.
- ADP Analysis: Rice is currently being drafted as the WR36 at No. 82 overall. His ADP could rise or fall depending on the outcome of any potential league discipline. If he avoids suspension, Rice could be a steal with WR1 upside in the seventh round.
- Final Verdict: Rice has shown the potential to be a breakout candidate in 2024, but his fantasy outlook is clouded by off-field concerns and added competition. He could be a league-winner at his current ADP, but managers need to be aware of the risks involved.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Rashee Rice
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
60) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
61) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
62) Zack Moss, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
Rashee Rice’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Let’s start with the good, shall we?
Rice finished as the WR27 in full-PPR formats in his rookie season with 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven scores over 102 targets in 16 games.
Now, let’s give this a little more context. Rice never saw more than 60% of the snaps until Week 8 of the 2023 season. From Weeks 8 through 17, he was the WR16 with an average of 15.4 fantasy points per game, which was the same mark we saw from Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown during that span.
Rookie Rashee Rice had the best game of his young career in Week 12:
🔥 8 catches
🔥 107 receiving yards
🔥 39-yard receiving TD pic.twitter.com/8vcu2litEf— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2023
Sounds pretty encouraging, right? Well, it gets even better.
Rice saw three more red-zone targets than Travis Kelce last year. That matters because Kelce led the league in red-zone targets in 2022.
Speaking of Kelce, from Weeks 12 to 17 last year (six games), he saw fewer targets than Rice in five of those contests and tied him with 10 in Week 14 against the Buffalo Bills.
In other words, Rice’s role in this offense grew exponentially over the back half of the season. His modest average depth of target (4.8) and high usage in the slot (45.4%) put him in a position to utilize his great run-after-catch skills and provided a nice safety blanket for Patrick Mahomes underneath.
Rice ranked third amongst all receivers with 654 yards after the catch last season.
This all suggests Rice could be a legitimate breakout WR1 candidate in 2024, right? Well, not exactly.
All potential off-field issues aside — which could result in a potential multi-game suspension from the league — Rice did get some legit competition for targets with two excellent vertical weapons in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy.
Brown is more of your traditional vertical threat who would likely help open things up for Rice underneath, but Worthy is a different story. Sure, the former Texas Longhorn has elite vertical speed — running a 4.21 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine — but he was heavily utilized underneath in the screen game and with a bevy of shorter route concepts all over the formation.
Of all the potential candidates to replace Tyreek Hill’s moveable weapon role in Kansas City’s offense, Worthy best fits the bill.
Could this eat into Rice’s workload in 2024? It’s possible. Could Rice’s potential suspension allow Worthy and Brown to create chemistry with Mahomes? Also possible.
I’m not suggesting Rice didn’t showcase plenty of the symptoms of a breakout fantasy candidate in 2024, playing with the best quarterback in football, but his fantasy outlook isn’t quite as rock-solid as we anticipated after the season.
Is Rice a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Rice’s ADP is one that fantasy managers will have to keep a very close eye on as they enter the fantasy football draft season. He’s currently the WR36 off the board at No. 82 overall. Yet, his ADP would be much higher than a seventh-round pick if he wasn’t potentially facing league discipline for off-field incidents this offseason.
Rice’s ADP could vary drastically if the situation is still unresolved when the draft season rolls around. If he receives a two-, four-, or six-game suspension before drafts, then his ADP will become far more reliable. Yet, there is no guarantee he will face league discipline this season at all — which would make him a potential league-winning type steal at his current price.
Based on his role and production from the back half of last year, Rice has a low-end WR1 fantasy upside in 2024. Where you would be willing to inherit that risk on draft day is solely up to you.
