Cleveland Browns wide receiver Rashard Higgins only averaged 9.3 PPR fantasy points per game last season in 13 active contests. How does the return of Odell Beckham affect his fantasy football outlook, and can Higgins be a value at his current ADP?
Rashard Higgins’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Higgins caught 37 of 52 targets for 599 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in 2020. Yet, he concluded with only two WR2+ finishes. Higgins played 60% of the Browns’ offensive snaps and finished fourth on the team in receptions and second in receiving yards and touchdown catches.
Cleveland leans heavily on its running game
The Browns’ offense leaned heavily on the running game under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland averaged the fifth-most rushing attempts per game (30.4) and the fourth-most rushing yards per game (145.2) in 2020. Only the Ravens, Titans, and Patriots rushed for more. As a result, running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt prospered behind the Browns’ excellent offensive line.
Jarvis Landry led the team with 101 targets, followed by tight end Austin Hooper with (70) and then Higgins (52). Beckham accumulated 44 targets in seven games before a torn ACL ended his season. His return clouds Higgins’ outlook as there are only so many targets to go around in the Browns’ offense.
Starting quarterback Baker Mayfield only averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game last year. Still, Cleveland could lean more on Mayfield and the play-action passing game in Stefanski’s second season.
Higgins will be fighting with Donovan Peoples-Jones for targets
Mayfield has developed a connection with Higgins. When you consider the regular season up to the Browns’ Divisional Round battle with the Kansas City Chiefs, Mayfield generated a passer rating of 119.2 when throwing to Higgins.
However, we shouldn’t discount the rapport that Donovan Peoples-Jones developed with Mayfield. The Browns selected him at No. 187 overall (sixth round) in the 2020 NFL Draft. Peoples-Jones tested similarly to Henry Ruggs at last year’s NFL Combine and played on both offense and special teams as a rookie.
Peoples-Jones caught 14 of 20 targets for 304 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Mayfield had a passer rating of 141 when targeting him last season. Thus, Peoples-Jones should see more targets in his second year in the NFL.
Earlier this year, Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reported that Higgins turned down a little more money for the second consecutive season to continue playing with Mayfield and the Browns. Earlier this month, the Akron Beacon Journal reported that he’s motivated by the team’s playoff loss to the Chiefs. Given the offensive situation in Cleveland, it’s unlikely to translate into Higgins becoming a fantasy difference-maker in 2021.
Higgins rolled his ankle at the start of training camp, but he expects to be fine, according to the Browns’ coaching staff. Let’s dive into his projection for the 2021 season.
Fantasy projection
Higgins projects for around 35 targets, 23 receptions, 300 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns in 2021. Beckham and Landry are projected for 100+ targets each.
Rashard Higgins’ ADP
Higgins is essentially free in fantasy drafts when reviewing redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker, where his ADP is currently 310. He’s taken a bit earlier in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where he has an ADP of 282.32.
Should you draft Higgins in 2021?
Higgins is not someone I recommend you aggressively target in most fantasy football formats. Nevertheless, he could be a good fit as a stash in deeper formats. Unfortunately, Higgins will need Beckham or Landry to miss significant time in order to be fantasy-relevant.