Coming off a season where he was one of the best values in all of fantasy, Michael Pittman Jr. was expected to take a large step back by the fantasy community. Based on last year’s 15.6 ppg, he should’ve been a third round pick. Fantasy managers wisely dinged him because of Anthony Richardson, pushing him to the 4/5 turn. But it wasn’t enough. Pittman averaged 10.4 ppg, finishing as the WR44.
Dec 22, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs with the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
The Jets RB1 wasn’t a total disaster. His 15.1 ppg made him startable. However, considering the heated debate between Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson as the overall RB2, the preseason outlook of “you can’t go wrong” was…well…wrong. There was a wrong answer and it was Hall. I would stop short of calling him a league loser, but when the overall RB2 or RB3 by ADP finishes as the RB17, that’s the definition of disappointment.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) throws the ball during warm-up Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, ahead of a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
In retrospect, in didn’t make any sense that Anthony Richardson’s ADP was five rounds ahead of Jayden Daniels. That’s not say we should’ve seen this coming from Daniels. Rather, there just wasn’t much a difference between the two in terms of proof of concept. Richardson completed exactly two starts as a rookie. His fifth round price tag was largely projection. Richardson completed fewer than 50% of his passes and average 15.9 ppg, getting benched at one point for Joe Flacco. He posted exactly three QB1-caliber performances all season.
For his entire career, Amari Cooper was the epitome of reliability. We knew there was no WR1 upside, but he’s been between 13.3 and 15.4 ppg every year of his career. For Cooper to suddenly average 8.8 ppg was completely unexpected. Sadly, the trade to Buffalo did nothing to salvage his fantasy value, with Cooper going from a 90% snap share guy to never over 55%.
After averaging between 14.2 and 15.4 ppg in each of his first three seasons, Jaylen Waddle took a massive step backwards in 2024, averaging 10.0 ppg, finishing as the WR50. From Week 2-11, Waddle had zero games with double-digit fantasy points. Victimized by Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries, his own injury issues, and Mike McDaniel’s lack of offensive creativity, Waddle was unstartable for almost the entire season. Pretty awful for a third round pick.
Dec 12, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr (1) before the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
Never again. No round. No price. Never again. Yes, technically there is a price at which every player becomes a value. Not Deebo Samuel. It’s not just that he went at the 2/3 turn and averaged 10.2 ppg. It’s that on three different occasions, he was either a decoy or left the game early, leaving a gaping hole in your lineup. Deebo loses more games than he wins. He had all four games the entire season with 18+ fantasy points. Every other week was under 13 with eight of them single digits. Easily the worst pick you could’ve made in the third round.
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) rushes for yards during the second quarter Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Oh the irony. Travis Etienne was never going to break fantasy. But he was considered a very safe pick to make in the second round. Another lesson learned: never play it safe. Etienne was literally all downside and his worst case outcome hit this season. Etienne averaged 8.7 ppg, finishing outside the top 36 running backs. From Week 3 onward, he did not score a touchdown. Etienne had nine weeks with single digit fantasy points. Even worse, he had more weeks with negative fantasy points (1) than 15+ fantasy points (0).
Lesson learned. Drafting rookies remains one of the best edges you can gain in fantasy football. Drafting rookie WRs inside the first two rounds…not so much. Harrison went off the board in the early to mid second round. He averaged 11.6 ppg, finishing outside the top 36. He posted nine single-digit fantasy outings.
Unsurprisingly, both Dolphins WRs made this list. Although not entirely his fault, Tyreek Hill’s 2024 was evidently doomed from the start. Apparently, Hill broke his wrist in training camp and played through it the entire season. That, combined with Tua Tagovailoa missing multiple games, led to him averaging 12.8 fantasy points per game, a decline of over 10 ppg from 2023. Hill was drafted as a top two WR and finished as the WR29.
I typically prefer to leave injuries out of it and focus more on underwhelming performance. However, Christian McCaffrey was the consensus No. 1 overall pick. He didn’t take the field until Week 10 and then lasted all of four weeks before succumbing to a season-ending knee injury.
