With Jalen Hurts sidelined by a shoulder injury, Gardner Minshew is set to start for the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday — and potentially for the rest of the regular season. As the postseason approaches, Minshew isn’t the only backup quarterback who could affect the 2022 NFL playoff race.
Let’s run through the five backup QBs that will start for postseason contenders this week and examine what the future could hold for each signal-caller.
Ranking the Best Backup QBs in the NFL Playoff Race
1) Gardner Minshew, Philadelphia Eagles
After initially saying Hurts and Minshew would both prepare to play against the Cowboys, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni announced Thursday that Minshew will be under center for the NFC East showdown. Depending on how Week 16 shakes out, Philadelphia could decide to rest Hurts for the remainder of the regular season.
In order to clinch the division and a first-round playoff bye, the Eagles need to win one of their final three games or have the Vikings, 49ers, and Cowboys lose one game each. Given that scenario, Philadelphia is an overwhelming favorite for the No. 1 seed — FiveThirtyEight gives the Birds a 97% chance of securing that first-round bye.
Thus, Minshew should get the next three games as something of an audition before becoming an unrestricted free agent. The former sixth-round pick is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and should be a back-end NFL starter. Before the Eagles acquired him in 2021, Minshew posted a 37-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio in over 20 starts with the Jaguars.
Hurts is the future in Philadelphia, so Minshew will likely aim for greener pastures as he searches for a starting opportunity. Enough clubs will be looking for QB alternatives next offseason that Minshew should land at least a chance to compete for a No. 1 job.
2) Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
While some teams have been forced to call on their second-string QB, the 49ers are already on their third passer of the season. With Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo done for the season, Brock Purdy has taken over under center and hasn’t looked back.
The final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy has made two starts and played all but one drive in Week 13. He’s completed 69% of his passes for 612 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception while ranking seventh in EPA per play during that span. If Purdy had enough attempts to qualify, he’d rank fourth in QBR and seventh in adjusted net yards per attempt.
Still, it’s fair to wonder how much of Purdy’s production is reliant on his supporting cast. He benefits from playing under one of the NFL’s best offensive play-callers in Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco’s weaponry is among the league’s best, especially when it comes to generating yards after the catch. Purdy’s average depth of target is just 6.3 yards, the lowest figure in the league, but the 49ers’ pass catchers can still create explosive plays.
MORE: Brock Purdy and the Allure of the Unknown Backup QB
San Francisco will likely land the second or third seed in the NFC, so they should avoid the Cowboys in the Divisional Round and could steer clear of the Eagles until a potential conference title game. Given that path, a Super Bowl isn’t out of the question for Purdy and the 49ers.
Garoppolo is a free agent next year, but San Francisco still has Lance under contract for at least two more seasons. If Purdy leads the 49ers on a deep playoff run, will he be given a legitimate chance to compete for the starting role in 2023? Given how little they’ve seen from Lance, it would be difficult for San Francisco to defer to the former first-rounder if Purdy performs well over the rest of the year.
3) Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders
Although Taylor Heinicke is nominally a backup, he’s attempted 735 passes since 2021, the 24th most in the NFL during that span. Heinicke helped the Commanders to a 7-8-1 record after Ryan Fitzpatrick went down last season, and he’s 5-2-1 this year since taking over for Carson Wentz.
Heinicke is a gamer. A former undrafted free agent out of Old Dominion, he bounced around the NFL and XFL and was completing his engineering degree when Washington called in December 2020. His teammates seem to love him, and that locker-room presence will keep Heinicke employed for years.
MORE: Bomb Cyclone! Five Scariest NFL Week 16 Weather Forecasts
It probably won’t be as an NFL starter, though. Heinicke isn’t consistent enough to lead an annual playoff contender, and his athletic limitations will prevent him from ascending much higher. He’s also already 29 years old, so Heinicke likely is what he is at this point. An up-and-down approach is acceptable for a backup quarterback, but NFL teams want greater stability from their starting QB.
In Week 16, Heinicke and the Commanders will face Purdy’s 49ers in a game that’s critical for Washington’s playoff odds. If the Commanders win, their postseason chances will rise to 65%. If they lose, their odds will drop to just one in five.
4) Tyler Huntley, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson will be sidelined by a knee injury for at least one more week, meaning Tyler Huntley will make his third start of the season when the Ravens face the Falcons in Week 16.
Huntley has made six starts in relief of Jackson over the past two years, and he’s offered some exceptional performances. Facing the Packers in 2021, Huntley scored four total touchdowns and posted an 86.0 QBR in a close 31-30 loss. He didn’t start against the Broncos two weeks ago, but Huntley rushed for 41 yards and a score while garnering a 74.1 QBR after Jackson went down.
But there have been too many lows, especially during the past two weeks. Against the Steelers and Browns, the Ravens scored 19 total points. Huntley passed for 226 total yards at just 3.07 yards per attempt, while he only managed 46 yards on the ground.
It’s quickly become apparent — if it hadn’t been already — that Baltimore’s offense is essentially the Lamar Jackson Show. Huntley can offer a decent facsimile of the former MVP’s playstyle, but anything more than that might not be achievable. He’ll be a restricted free agent in 2023, so Baltimore will have to decide whether to upgrade behind Jackson.
The Ravens are virtually assured of a playoff spot, but they’ve fallen one game behind the Bengals in the AFC North. If they can keep pace with Cincinnati for at least one more week and then hopefully get Jackson back, the battle for the division crown could come down to a Week 18 Bengals-Ravens finale.
5) Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill managed to re-enter last week’s game after aggravating his ankle injury, but he won’t be able to suit up when the Titans face the Texans in Week 16. As NFL Media reported on Friday, Tannehill underwent surgery this week with the hope of returning in what could be a must-win Week 18 game against the Jaguars.
With Tannehill unable to play, Tennessee will turn back to third-round rookie Malik Willis for the foreseeable future. The Titans didn’t ask much of Willis in his two starts earlier this year, as he completed just 11 of 26 attempts for 135 scoreless yards.
It’s almost impossible to project what Willis could do over the rest of the season. He was dynamic at Liberty, but he’s looked lost at the NFL level thus far. To be fair, it hasn’t been all his fault. Aside from Henry, the Titans don’t have a ton of offensive playmakers, and their offensive line is one of the worst in the league.
Tennessee dispatched Houston with Willis as the starter in a game where Derrick Henry rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans will surely lean on The King again and are viewed as the favorites on Saturday, but the Texans played the Cowboys and Chiefs — two teams that are much more talented than Tennessee — tough over the past two weeks.
Losers of four straight, the Titans are 7-7 and fighting for their playoff lives. The Jaguars are just one game behind Tennessee and are now the betting favorites in the AFC South. The next three games will decide the Titans’ postseason fate and, depending on the nature of Tannehill’s recovery, give Mike Vrabel and Co. an opportunity to evaluate Willis as their quarterback of the future.