Once again, Week 17 saw Lamar Jackson have a post-Steelers bounce-back and re-emphasize his MVP credentials on a national stage on Christmas Day. Jackson finished the week third in EPA per dropback (EPA/DB; 0.54) and second in nYPA (11.0), thanks in large part to averaging 11.0 yards after the catch per completion (YAC/Cp).
Jared Goff continues to impress with his consistency, as he added his ninth game of the season graded as a B- or above in Week 18. Goff’s numbers against the San Francisco 49ers were largely very impressive, finishing with a 0.48 EPA/DB, a 60% third-down conversion rate, and 8.4 nYPA. His performance when pressured was bad (-0.78 EPA/DB), and he struggled in some clutch spots, but overall the numbers were good.
Once again, Josh Allen was impressive this past week without being truly dominant statistically. He finished with three touchdowns but only had 182 passing yards, a 59.3% completion rate, and ranked ninth on the week in EPA/DB (0.33). His numbers stood out on third downs (63.6% conversion rate), and he had a 0.13 EPA/DB when pressured.
Joe Burrow was mostly good in the Cincinnati Bengals’ Week 17 must-win game, but the Bengals stumbled in key moments and needed overtime to put the Denver Broncos away. He finished with a 0.32 EPA/DB (10th), a 58.3% third-down conversion rate (sixth), and played well in clutch moments. He finished with a solid 7.8 nYPA, which is impressive given how much he was sacked and his 3.4 YAC/Cp.
Hurts missed Week 17 due to a concussion, and the Philadelphia Eagles did not crumble. However, they simply found a different way to win, with their defense forcing four turnovers and the team’s MVP, Saquon Barkley, rushing for 167 yards. The passing game was efficient in his absence without being dominant, as Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee combined for 197 yards and three passing touchdowns.
We may have seen the last of Brock Purdy in the 2024 season after the San Francisco 49ers quarterback left their Monday Night Football game late in the fourth quarter with an elbow injury. An injury like that raises concerns for a quarterback who is facing one of the biggest offseasons of his career with a new contract hanging in the balance.
Despite lacking any really headline-grabbing performances in QB+ since the bye week, Jayden Daniels’ consistency in that span has seen him rank third over the last four weeks. He is the only rookie quarterback to have led his team to the playoffs so far in 2024, and his numbers underline his credentials as Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024.
An injury kept Tua Tagovailoa out of the Miami Dolphins’ Week 17 win, and while Tyler Huntley was good, it was a reminder of how much less devastating this offense can look without their starter in place. Tua ranks 22nd over the last four weeks, and his injury may well be part of the reason for his statistical struggles.
Whatever happens in Week 18, this has been an impressive season from Mayfield. Not only has his performance not dropped off in the way many predicted, but he has posted some of the best numbers of his career as he continues to demonstrate his abilities.
Whenever you watch Patrick Mahomes, there are always a couple of “wow” moments, but you rarely come away from the game thinking he was absolutely dominant. However, Mahomes rarely costs his team the game, either. That is demonstrated by his range in QB+ grades in individual games this season, having not once ranked above a B but having not had a game graded below a C-.
The New Orleans Saints continue to feel Derek Carr’s absence. All five of their wins have come in games in which he qualified for a QB+ grade. They are 5-5 in games where Carr has played and 0-6 in games where he has not.
It was yet another solid performance from Sam Darnold in Week 17, emphasizing his place as an above-average quarterback in these rankings. Darnold had a wide variation in this game between his performances from a clean pocket (0.78 EPA/DB) and when pressured (-0.77 EPA/DB). He finished with an 8.7 nYPA, a 76.7% completion rate, 377 passing yards, and three touchdowns.
It was a frustrating game for Jordan Love in Week 17. He never really felt like he elevated his team to the level they needed to win the game, and ultimately, they fell short. The performance was fine, grading as a C. But to win games against the very best, you need more than fine from your quarterback.
It was a brave call from the Pittsburgh Steelers to bench Justin Fields after a 4-2 start to the season. Fields was having his career-best season in Pittsburgh, but the bar was low, and the numbers do not suggest he should have unquestioningly remained the starter.
Justin Herbert did not need to be at his very best to beat the New England Patriots, but the performance was another solid one, with a 0.42 EPA/DB and three passing touchdowns. However, we cannot learn very much from a game where he was not pressured once in the first half. If anything, you could question why his Week 17 numbers were not more elite than they were.
Wilson has really struggled in the last four weeks, ranking 31st and slipping below Fields in QB+. That has coincided with a run that has seen them play three straight playoff teams and a good Cleveland Browns defense. The struggles against the defenses of playoff teams are a major concern heading into a gauntlet of games against good teams.
A small sample size for Aidan O’Connell relative to the rest of the league (six qualifying games) means that his numbers will tend to fluctuate more than most. There have been some ugly moments for him this year, namely against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14. But for the most part, he has been a fairly solid starting quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders.
We saw another mediocre performance from Kyler Murray in Week 18, and he is now a long way from the top-10 finish that he was threatening when the team entered their bye in Week 11. He ranks 26th in the league over the past four weeks, and his play during that period is a big part of the reason this team is playing out the last two weeks with nothing on the line.
It is becoming hard to find a creative way to say the same things about Geno Smith. Rarely does he hurt the Seattle Seahawks, but rarely does he elevate this team to a point that you believe they are legitimate contenders. Even with the team scoring just six points, Smith still graded in the C range (C-), making it 14 out of 16 games between a C- and C+.
Saturday was Drake Maye’s worst game of the season in what was an ugly performance from the New England Patriots in a national spotlight game. Maye was briefly knocked out of the game when trying to do too much on his own. He returned, but when he watches the tape back, he may wish he had not.
Joe Flacco was back at the helm for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17, and he put in a mixed performance as they were eliminated from playoff contention. He performed fairly well, converting on 57.1% of third downs and finishing with a 0.74 EPA/DB from a clean pocket. However, he wilted when pressured, with a -0.66 EPA/DB, and he threw two interceptions that proved costly.
Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams survived a mediocre performance on Saturday night, clinching a playoff spot. However, they will need a lot more from their quarterback if they are to advance through the NFC playoff picture. In scoring a total of 44 points in the last three games, Stafford has not graded above a C.
It was a strange game for Bo Nix in Week 17, as he produced some fantastic throws but did not consistently produce good play. The two touchdown throws to Marvin Mims were the highlights, but there were few memorable throws outside of that. Nix’s 77.4% completion rate and three passing touchdowns were impressive, but despite a 0.13 EPA/DB when pressured, he finished 17th on the week in overall EPA/DB (0.19).
The Atlanta Falcons made the decision to bench Kirk Cousins entering Week 16 after he ranked 28th in the league over the proceeding four weeks. Cousins has struggled when operating under pressure and in clutch spots all season, with a -0.44 EPA/DB when pressured. His nYPA of 7.3 ranks ninth, but he’s also 12th in YAC/Cp at 5.6.
Week 17 was Aaron Rodgers’ worst game of the season by a considerable distance. He finished with a -1.04 EPA/DB overall and was below -1 in EPA/DB, whether he was operating from a clean pocket or under pressure. Additionally, he did not convert a single third down and finished with a 4.8 nYPA, despite a 66.7% completion rate and getting 7.0 YAC/Cp.
In Week 17, Mason Rudolph scored 74.7 and placed 19th among quarterbacks. That is basically the level that we expect from Rudolph, a slightly below-average starter. There was nothing particularly troublesome about his numbers, with a 0.01 EPA/DB (20th), a 50% third-down conversion rate (12th), and 5.7 nYPA (22nd). However, nothing there excites you either.
Taking over for the injured Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones has done reasonably well, culminating in a B- performance in their win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 17. Jones has played nicely since coming back into the lineup in Week 13, with no game grading below a C-. However, it is hard to make a case that he has done enough to earn a starting role anywhere in 2025.
It’s now 12 straight games without C.J. Stroud grading out above a C. Over the last four weeks, Stroud ranks 27th among 34 qualified quarterbacks, with the Houston Texans riding their defense to clinch the division in Week 15. Week 17 was Stroud’s second-worst performance of the season, as the Texans’ offense was shut out in a 31-2 rout.
It’s not a major surprise that Winston was benched after Week 15 when he threw three interceptions and had just 4.4 nYPA despite getting 6.3 YAC/Cp. He at least completed 64.0% of his passes to the right team (76% if you count the actual ones that were caught by someone) and converted on 37.5% of his third-down attempts.
Based on Dak Prescott’s performances this year, it’s a wonder if there was an underlying health issue all season. He will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery, which may be a blessing in disguise.
Lawrence’s 2024 season ended when he was placed on IR ahead of Week 14 following a brutal hit from Azeez Al-Shaair in Week 13. Also dealing with a non-throwing shoulder injury, it was a smart decision with the Jaguars officially eliminated from playoff contention.
It may have been controversial, but it’s hard not to believe that the Carolina Panthers made the right decision at the time to go to Andy Dalton. They had to see whether their team had any chance of being competitive with a more calming influence under center.
