Not every 2024 NFL head coaching vacancy was created equally.
While some first-year head coaches anticipate playoff berths in their debut campaigns, others are just trying to ensure the train stays on the tracks. Expectations vary from team to team, but every club that hired a new head coach this offseason was interested in the same thing: change.
Which new head coaches have the best shot at 2024 success? Let’s rank all eight first-year HCs based on how we project they’ll finish next year. Along the way, we’ll examine what each head coach hopes to accomplish in 2024 and over the next several seasons.
Ranking the NFL’s New Head Coaches by 2024 Playoff Chances
8) Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
2024 expectations: Get rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ feet wet.
Quinn is a defensive-minded head coach, but his primary objective this season has to be allowing Daniels to develop in his first NFL season.
All indications are the reigning Heisman winner will be Washington’s starting quarterback in Week 1. Quinn has to trust offensive play-caller Kliff Kingsbury to keep Daniels protected behind a league-worst offensive line.
Long-term goal: Find more defensive playmakers.
The Commanders covered up their defensive weaknesses with temporary free agent solutions after ranking dead last in points in 2023. Quinn will need to upgrade at almost every position moving forward.
Defensive end remains a concern after Washington traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young last season, while perimeter corner will be a problem if 2023 first-rounder Emmanuel Forbes doesn’t develop.
7) Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers
2024 expectations: Resurrect Bryce Young’s career.
After watching Canales help Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield revitalize their NFL stock over the past two seasons, the Panthers are asking their new head coach to work the same wonders with Young.
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The No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft finished last in adjusted net yards per attempt in his rookie campaign; only Zach Wilson ranked worst in QBR.
Long-term goal: Build a sustainable offensive structure.
While Young is Canales’ primary charge this season, he received a six-year deal to take over the Panthers. If Canales decides Young isn’t his guy, he’ll likely have free reign to pick his own quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Canales has assisted in QB turnarounds but hasn’t yet been asked to identify, draft, and develop a signal-caller.
6) Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders
2024 expectations: Play bully ball.
With the NFL’s worst quarterback situation and Davante Adams on the decline, the Raiders might lean into their run-blocking offensive line in 2024.
Las Vegas’ defense was a pleasant surprise under Patrick Graham last season. Christian Wilkins joins a front that already boasted Maxx Crosby, Malcolm Koonce, and 2023 top-10 pick Tyree Wilson.
Long-term goal: Figure out quarterback.
Aidan O’Connell held his own as a fourth-round rookie in a poor environment in 2023. Gardner Minshew almost helped the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs last year. But neither projects as the Raiders’ franchise quarterback.
Until Pierce and first-year general manager Tom Telesco solve the most important position in sports, they’ll be treading water.
5) Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
2024 expectations: Lean on defense, work in Drake Maye.
PFN NFL’s staff ranked the Patriots’ defense eighth, even though New England lost the greatest defensive play-caller of all time (Bill Belichick) and its top edge rusher (Matthew Judon).
Mayo was raised in Belichick’s system and still has young, ascending defenders like CB Christian Gonzalez, S Kyle Dugger, and EDGE Keion White to work with.
The Pats have plenty of offensive weaknesses and the NFL’s most difficult schedule, which could lead Mayo to roll with veteran Jacoby Brissett over Maye at the start of the season. But the No. 3 overall pick might as well take his lumps now rather than later.
Long-term goal: Build up the offense.
If Maye can work through any developmental issues in 2024, the Patriots will be positioned to surround him with talent next offseason. With $75+ million in projected cap space, New England can bring in receivers like Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, or Stefon Diggs, bolster its offensive line, and add more pieces to Mayo’s defense.
4) Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans
2024 expectations: Get an answer on Will Levis; flirt with contention?
Tennessee was among the most active teams in free agency, signing WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, RB Tony Pollard, and center Lloyd Cushenberry on offense while adding DBs L’Jarius Sneed (trade), Chidobe Awuzie, and Quandre Diggs on defense. Top-40 rookies JC Latham and T’Vondre Sweat should have roles in the trenches from Day 1.
Teams that go on spending sprees often expect to contend immediately. More than anything, though, the Titans’ new additions will allow Callahan and general manager Ran Carthon a look at Levis in upgraded circumstances.
Long-term goal: Find more cornerstone pieces.
Like Canales in Carolina, Callahan will likely be given the chance to select his own quarterback in 2025 if he’s not happy with Levis’ performance this year.
Aside from QB, the Titans need to draft and develop more foundational assets at critical positions. Teams built through free agency often have little staying power, making Tennessee’s upcoming drafts essential.
3) Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
2024 expectations: Reset the roster and hope for Harbaugh magic.
Pro Football Network recently ranked every NFL roster while excluding QBs, and the Chargers finished 30th.
While Los Angeles has Justin Herbert and a solid offensive line, the club has weaknesses almost everywhere else. We don’t want to bet against Harbaugh, but the Bolts’ roster isn’t ready to compete in a division with the back-to-back Super Bowl winners.
Long-term goal: Take down the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.
Of course, that’s the long-term target. Even if it takes Harbaugh and first-year GM Joe Hortiz an offseason or two to get the Chargers’ salary cap and depth chart in order, the Chiefs remain in their sights.
Mahomes is 8-2 in his career against L.A. and has won five straight.
2) Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons
2024 expectations: Win the NFC South.
Morris justified Atlanta’s first-round selection of Michael Penix Jr. by saying the club doesn’t plan to be picking in the top 10 again. The Falcons are the betting favorites to win their first division crown since 2016.
A refreshed offense helmed by Kirk Cousins and a defense that added Judon and safety Justin Simmons this week has Atlanta in the NFC South driver’s seat.
Long-term goal: Manage the transition from Cousins to Penix.
Theoretically, the structure of Cousins’ four-year, $180 million contract should lock him in as Atlanta’s starter through 2025.
Still, Morris will eventually be required to deftly direct the changeover from Cousins to Penix. How Morris presides over that transition could define his tenure as the Falcons’ head coach.
1) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks
2024 expectations: Vegas says 7.5 wins, but we’re higher on Seattle.
While the Seahawks don’t have as clear of a shot at a division title as the Falcons, we expect Seattle to compete for a Wild Card berth and finish as a better team than Atlanta.
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Mike Macdonald was the most inspired coaching hire of the 2024 cycle. We can’t wait to see how he utilizes Seattle’s defensive pieces — especially rookie DT Byron Murphy and CBs Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen — after crafting the NFL’s best unit in Baltimore last season. It’s hard to imagine the Seahawks finishing 28th in defensive DVOA again.
Long-term goal: Field the NFL’s most forward-thinking units on both sides of the ball.
First-year Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb is cut from the same detail-oriented cloth as MacDonald and will try to create the same explosive plays he cooked up at the University of Washington.
Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Nijgba could create fireworks in 2024, but we’re just as excited to see how McDonald and Grubb craft the next iteration of Seattle’s offensive personnel in the years to come.
