After being traded for a sixth-round pick, Randall Cobb is reunited with quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. But what is Cobb’s fantasy football outlook now that he is back home with the Packers, and is he a value at his ADP?
Randall Cobb’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Cobb’s rapport with Rodgers is otherworldly. Age and injuries have affected Cobb’s statistical production in recent seasons, but he may have found the fountain of youth by being reconnected with Rodgers.
The Packers are getting the veteran receiver for under $3 million on the salary cap in 2021. Green Bay converted much of Cobb’s 2021 base salary into a signing bonus. The team also added a void year to the deal in 2023. This will allow the Packers to spread out the bonus over three years on the cap.
The trade was made possible after the Houston Texans acquired Anthony Miller from the Chicago Bears.
Cobb’s early years in Green Bay
Cobb showed flashes of athleticism and playmaking ability as a rookie in 2011 with Rodgers in Green Bay. From 2012 to 2013, in 21 active games, Cobb continued to ascend. He averaged 7.2 targets, 5.3 receptions, 66 receiving yards, and 16.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
The former Kentucky receiver had his best overall season in 2014. Cobb averaged 8 targets, 5.7 receptions, 80.4 receiving yards, and 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
Cobb’s downward spiral
However, Cobb’s statistical production in Green Bay waned from 2015 to 2018. He only averaged 11.4 PPR fantasy points per game in 53 active games during this time frame.
In 2019, Cobb signed a one-year, $5 million contract with Dallas. He finished that season with 55 receptions, 828 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns.
In 2020, the Texans shocked everyone by signing Cobb to a three-year, $27 million contract. Houston was scrambling to find replacements for WR DeAndre Hopkins following his trade to Arizona. To appease quarterback Deshaun Watson, Houston also signed Brandin Cooks.
Cobb missed time late last season with a significant toe injury and ended up on injured reserve. This allowed Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen to see more playing time.
Davante Adams’ inconceivable target share
Davante Adams commanded an astounding 34% target share and 38% receiving air yards (indicates how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught) share last season. He caught 48 of 57 targets lined up in the slot, recording a 139 passer rating with Rodgers. Now, many of these targets are likely to go to Cobb.
Cobb is most likely to fill the Packers’ No. 2 receiver void and benefit from better quarterback play. Green Bay heavily uses the slot, and now they have a legitimate slot receiver on their roster.
Cobb had his best statistical season in 2014, playing alongside Jordy Nelson. As a reminder, Nelson finished with 1,519 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.
Fantasy projection
Cobb projects for around 80 targets, 55 receptions, 700 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns in 2021.
It would be surprising for Rodgers to exceed 600 pass attempts in 2021. Furthermore, the running backs will also be targeted more than many anticipate. We project Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to combine for around 115 targets.
Randall Cobb’s ADP
Cobb is readily available very late in drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker, where is ADP is currently 194.3. In pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, Cobb has an ADP of 202.84. On Sleeper, Cobb is currently being selected at an ADP of 185.2.
Should you draft Cobb in 2021?
Yes — Cobb is an intriguing late-round flier in drafts. He can be viewed as a solid WR4 in the Packers’ offense. Playing alongside Adams, Cobb should have a few monster games in Green Bay.