This Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers prediction seemed like a lot more fun early in the season. The defending champs taking on the defending MVP. Then reality kicked in, and now we’re getting a battered and bruised shell of the champs and a Packers team going through growing pains with their quarterback and his receivers.
Still, there is value to be had when looking at the Rams vs. Packers odds. All is not lost if you’re a bettor. Baker Mayfield’s insertion into the lineup provides some intrigue, and against the spread, there may be some hope at making Rams fans happy.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction and Odds | Week 15
- Spread
Rams +7.5 - Moneyline
Packers -365 - Over/Under
Over 39.5
Rams vs. Packers Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model is having an excellent Week 15 as we wait for Monday Night Football. Twenty-eight wagers were placed, and we’ve hit on 23 of them.
For the season, the model is 100-44-5* on bets against the spread, the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Los Angeles vs. Green Bay prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit.
Coming off a storybook comeback against the Raiders last week, who then went on to have their own insanity-filled victory yesterday, the Rams get to see what a full week of practice for Baker Mayfield yields them. Baker is intimately familiar with the system and playbook, having played the bulk of his career in the Shanahan/QB collective system, pioneered by Mike Shanahan and used by at least 25% of the entire NFL.
Running the system and teaching the system are two different things, however. Kevin Stefanski runs it. Sean McVay has proven to be an elite teacher of it. Jared Goff blossomed under his tutelage, Matthew Stafford finally won a Super Bowl, and Mayfield came in with less than 72 hours of practice and led a comeback running plays largely on structure.
Tonight is by no stretch a walk in the park for the Packers. The Rams’ offense is not explosive or necessarily dangerous, but they will typically find a way to score at least two touchdowns and then some with the time they have the ball.
Since the bye week, L.A.’s points scored per minute of possession time has grown by 23% week over week. They’re averaging .6 points or more scored per minute in four out of their last six games.
That works out to be about 17-18 points with the amount of possession time they average on the road. Not high enough to make you think you’re facing the Chiefs, but not low enough to fully count them out.
The problem for the Packers is that they’re allowing opponents to score .748 points per minute of opponent possession time, which is .2 points higher than what the Rams average since the bye. It gets worse. That number is growing week over week at 27%.
MORE: Packers vs. Rams Prop Bets for Monday Night Football
What bails Green Bay out in this one is their offense. In three out of their last four games, they’re averaging .9 points per minute of possession time or more. At home, they possess the ball for more than 31 minutes. Those numbers in a vacuum could produce around 28 points.
While inconsistent, the Rams’ defense has given up .9 points per minute of opponent possession time in four of their last six games. I think the Packers score the points to outpace the Rams, even if the defense gives Los Angeles a sliver of hope. The Pack win, the Rams cover.
Rams Packers Prediction
Packers 24, Rams 20