According to the NFL’s playoff probabilities, the San Francisco 49ers will have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs with a loss this week — not technically eliminated but effectively eliminated. It seems as if the 49ers only have two endgames to their seasons under Kyle Shanahan: A top-two team in the NFC fighting for a Super Bowl berth, or injury-riddled team missing the playoffs completely.
The Los Angeles Rams maintain a one-game lead on both the 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals but are still one game behind the Seattle Seahawks for the division lead. After beating the Buffalo Bills in arguably the game of the year last week, the Rams should have some momentum coming into this game.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
49ers -3 - Moneyline
49ers (-148); Rams (+124) - Over/Under
48.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m ET - Location
Levi’s Stadium
Rams vs. 49ers Preview and Prediction
Despite all the struggles this season, the 49ers’ offense still ranks 11th in EPA (expected points added) per play this season, according to TruMedia. They still rank seventh in EPA when running play-action, but their often-successful run game has been mediocre at best this season (16th in rush EPA).
This is almost exclusively a result of not having solid running backs behind Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers’ offensive line ranks first in PFF Run Blocking Grade, and they rank third in yards before contact per rush. Conversely, they rank 12th in yards after contact per rush and 13th in PFF rushing grade.
Luckily, they face the Rams’ defense who ranks 27th in defensive rush EPA per play and 20th in rushing success rate. What the Rams struggle even more with is explosive passes. The defense ranks 29th in explosive pass plays allowed per game. Of course, the 49ers are one of the best, ranking second in that department on offense.
Offensively, the Rams rank 10th in EPA per play despite being 18th in passing explosives and 26th in rushing explosives. The Rams still have a relatively successful (13th in rush EPA) running game this season but nowhere near as effective as last season. They mostly focus on letting Matthew Stafford, Puka Nakua, and Cooper Kupp cook.
What the Rams have struggled with a lot this season is pressure. This could be due to Stafford losing some of his mobility to age or the offense not having enough options outside of Kupp and Nakua. Either way, they rank 28th in EPA when pressured. The Rams offense’ alleviates this issue by throwing the ball quickly. They have the fifth-fastest time to throw in the league.
It cannot be overstated the impact Nick Bosa makes on this defense. Without him, the Rams should have no issue protecting Stafford and making plays. Of 229 defenders with over 100 pass-rushing snaps, Bosa ranks 11th in quick pressure (less than 2.5 seconds) rate.
Overall, this should be a close game against divisional rivals. I am surprised that after a 44-point barnburner against the Bills, Vegas still has the 49ers as three-point favorites. What doesn’t surprise me is that this -3 number is +100, giving credence to the idea that it’s probably more like a 1.5-to-2.5-point spread.
With that being said I am going to reluctantly take the 49ers moneyline. This game could go either way, and I would have priced it at 49ers -0.5.
My pick: 49ers ML (-148)