On Tuesday, April 18, the Los Angeles Rams traded wide receiver Allen Robinson to the Pittsburgh Steelers. What does Robinson offer the Steelers? And how does his arrival impact the fantasy football values of Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and the entire Pittsburgh offense?
Fantasy Impact of Allen Robinson Trade From Rams to Steelers
Once upon a time, Robinson was one of the best wide receivers in football. Let’s not let his recent struggles diminish the fact that he once averaged 19 fantasy points per game with Blake Bortles at quarterback.
The last time Robinson was good was in 2020, when he averaged an impressive 16.4 ppg on a weak Bears offense. In 2021, the wheels appeared to fall off, as he averaged 7.3 ppg.
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Still just 28 years old, fantasy managers were justifiably unsure as to whether Robinson’s dismal output had to do with poor quarterback play or declining ability. It’s easy to say in hindsight, but Darnell Mooney’s breakout should’ve provided the answer.
Regardless, Robinson was done with the Bears. In March 2022, the wide receiver signed a three-year, $46.5 million deal with the Rams. The money certainly suggested the Rams still believed Robinson was a top receiver. After some waffling, so did I, especially in light of how well Robert Woods was able to perform as the Robin to Cooper Kupp’s Batman.
It took me all of one game to determine that Robinson was done. Hopefully, realizing it that early helped some of you out there. It certainly didn’t do me any favors in the two leagues where I drafted him, except for knowing not to start him anymore (and then drop him by Week 4).
Is There Any Hope for Allen Robinson’s Fantasy Value?
Robinson averaged just 8.5 ppg last season. He commanded a 15.2% target share, by far the lowest of his career. Targets are a skill metric. They are earned by players who get open. Robinson simply could not get open last season.
Despite playing 91% of the Rams’ offensive snaps (top 10 in the league), Robinson was targeted on just 16.5% of his routes. He averaged 1.08 yards per route run, 92nd in the league.
A clearly less-than-100% Matthew Stafford certainly did Robinson no favors, but it’s not like he was excelling with Stafford. It just didn’t matter. And I can’t imagine being Kenny Pickett’s fourth or fifth option is going to somehow revive Robinson’s career at age 30.
Diontae Johnson remains the Steelers’ unquestioned WR1. George Pickens firmly established himself as the stretch Z WR2 last season. Pat Freiermuth has quickly emerged as one of the league’s better tight ends.
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The only real debate regarding Robinson’s spot on the ladder is whether he will out-target running back Najee Harris. Quite frankly, it doesn’t matter.
I am not a believer in Pickett and do not think he is a long-term starting quarterback in the NFL. While he will likely improve as a sophomore, he’s not going to be able to support four fantasy-relevant pass catchers.
I imagine preseason hype and name value will push Robinson onto many fantasy rosters as a last-round selection. With the month of May a mere two weeks ago, so, too, are my first run of 2023 redraft rankings. I can assure you Robinson will not be listed anywhere close to a spot where fantasy managers would draft him. He has no fantasy value. It’s over.
Fantasy Impact of Allen Robinson on Other Steelers
In 2021, my top “my guy” was Diontae Johnson. I wanted to draft him in every league and screamed from the rooftops for everyone to do the same. Johnson averaged 17.8 ppg and finished inside the top 12. He was one of the best values at the position in all of fantasy football.
In 2022, I did not draft Johnson anywhere. Following his breakout 2021 campaign, Johnson was overvalued with a rookie quarterback. He averaged 10.6 ppg, finishing outside the top 36, and didn’t score a single touchdown.
In 2023, I am back in on Johnson. I’m not as in as I was in 2021, but he will be a guy I have a lot of if his price is as low as it appears to be (it’s still way too early to put any value in ADP).
The only tangible effect Robinson’s arrival may have is a positive one on Johnson’s ADP or your fellow fantasy managers’ perception of this offense.
In a best-case scenario, Robinson’s presence suppresses Johnson’s ADP and makes him easier to draft. In a worst-case scenario, nothing changes.
Given Robinson’s abilities at this point in his career, he is unlikely to make any dent in Johnson’s 28.5% and 27% target shares from the past two seasons. Johnson led the NFL in routes run last season. Regardless of how you feel about Johnson, it shouldn’t change with Robinson in town.
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Ditto for Pickens, who should still be the guy opposite Johnson in two-receiver sets. He’s more likely to be impacted by Robinson’s presence than Johnson, as it is conceivable that his veteran experience leads coaches to feel more comfortable with him in certain situations.
However, that’s really just me covering all bases. I don’t actually think Pickens will come off the field because Robinson is a better option. Much like Johnson, however you valued Pickens before this trade is how you should value him now.
Beyond Johnson and Pickens, the only other relevant Steeler potentially impacted would be Freiermuth. In theory, the two would likely operate around the same part of the field.
Last season, Robinson’s average depth of target was 10.1 yards. Freiermuth’s was even closer to the line of scrimmage at 8.1 yards.
At this point in his career, Robinson can’t really do much else beyond attempt to catch contested short throws. Freiermuth is better at it, but it’s possible that Robinson causes Freiermuth’s target share to tick down a little bit. But I wouldn’t downgrade the Muth any meaningful amount.
Does Allen Robinson’s Departure Matter for Rams’ Fantasy-Relevant Players?
I really wanted to simply write “no” in this section, but I imagine my manager wouldn’t find it as amusing as I would.
Nevertheless, Robinson leaving the Rams doesn’t change a thing. He was a complete afterthought in the offense last season. He averaged 5.2 targets per game. Even after Cooper Kupp went down, Robinson’s usage didn’t increase at all.
The only potential impact would be a slight benefit to Matthew Stafford in the form of addition by subtraction. Robinson’s departure means the Rams need a new WR2. It’s hard to imagine that guy not being better than Robinson.