The Los Angeles Rams will face the New York Jets in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Rams skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Matthew Stafford, QB
Matthew Stafford has 17 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season when not pressured (two touchdowns and two picks when feeling the heat). Why do I mention that?
Jets blitz rates, 2024:
- Weeks 3-7: 31.6%
- Weeks 8-15: 26.5%
Stafford is checking all of the boxes I need from a pocket-locked passer. Over his last two games, he’s completed 78.9% of passes in enemy territory with a 134.2 passer rating. He’s making the most of those opportunities and against a downward-trending defense, and that’s enough for me to consider him as a low-end QB1.
Blake Corum, RB
Blake Corum gets his drive or two a game, and that’s cute. It’s also infuriating for those holding Kyren Williams’ bags, but that’s all it is. It’s just a wrinkle, not a feature.
The rookie has posted a sub-20% snap share in consecutive games and for the bulk of the season, outside of an outlier Week 13 win against the Saints, in which he was on the field for 32.7% of the Rams’ plays.
Corum has yet to clear eight touches in a game this season. While holding a handcuff was a logical strategy up to this point, you’re in go-for-it mode now. You don’t need to cut ties with Corum, but if you’re trying to maximize the number of Flex options you have in a do-or-die situation, I’d much rather use that roster spot for a home-run-hitting receiver or a secondary RB where there are questions about the starter.
As things stand right now, we have no reason to think that Williams will see anything less than his standard workload this week, which means that Corum doesn’t project as a usable piece.
Kyren Williams, RB
Who among us doesn’t like a sandwich?
Exactly, no one. It’s compliment sandwich time for Kyren Williams managers who are hoping to ride Los Angeles’ bell cow to the promised land as the Rams chase a divisional title.
The role.
Williams is featured at a level that essentially no one can compete with these days. He enters Week 16 having notched 29 carries and multiple catches in consecutive games, joining Le’Veon Bell as the only players with such a streak since 2012.
If you gave me this role, a scrawny nerd who has been writing about fake sports for nearly two decades, I’d be somewhere on the low end of Flex considerations — we’re talking about a built-in floor that is nothing short of elite.
The bad.
Williams produced at a rate that was 33% under expectation on Thursday night. It was his third-worst showing of the season and the eighth time in 14 games in which his on-paper production has failed to reach what we would have expected from an average NFL back given his exact role.
The rebound.
“It was his third-worst showing of the season.” True. What’s also true is that all three of those games have come on the road against divisional opponents who have more familiarity with the intricacies of this offense than the other 28 teams in the NFL. Guess what? Three road divisional games are all you get for a season!
This season, Williams has produced 10.7% over expectation when not on the road against NFC West teams (39% under expectation in those three games), and that’s the version I think you can bank on seeing this week — a moderately efficient RB with the most advantageous role in the game.
Last week left you wanting more; I don’t think that’s the case here.
Cooper Kupp, WR
We see elite-receiver tandems on occasion, but they are rare. There are instances in which, for a period of time, both alpha receivers are functioning at the peak of their powers, and we get something truly special.
But more often than not, one sees their stock rise while the other fades, making it only a matter of time until the narrative flips and the incumbent becomes the second read, the undercard, and the player whose name carries more weight than their production.
- 2003 with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce
- 2009 with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin
- 2017 with Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson
There is a changing of the guard that is uncomfortable for the nostalgic and difficult to pinpoint at the moment. It’s much easier to do what I am doing here and find endpoints with 8-21 years of hindsight in my pocket.
Are we there in Los Angeles? Is Cooper Kupp now Robin to Puka Nacua’s Batman?
I’m not far from going there. I’m not making sweeping claims as a reaction off of Kupp’s second catch-less effort of his career. But the recent advanced profile paints a convincing picture and certainly has me believing that these two are ranked in different stratospheres entering 2025.
Before I get into the long-term analysis (hey, I have to provide value to everyone, not just those fortunate enough to still be chasing a 2024 title, right?), here’s why you should still be starting the veteran receiver.
On the whole, without segmenting certain predictive areas, Kupp’s metrics are still on par with last season, if not ahead. His productivity relative to expectations falls within the 5% margin for error, just like it did in 2023, while his PPR points per target (1.75) are eerily similar (1.73).
Kupp’s overall yards per route are up 12.8%. Like the examples listed above, the veteran WR1 doesn’t fall off a cliff by traditional standards, he’s just not what he was, and that’s where the deeper dive can shed some predictive light as we begin to think about 2025 values.
- First six games: 32.4% on-field target share and a 29% red-zone target rate
- Last four games: 25.5% on-field target share and an 8.3% red-zone target rate
In the snapshot of 2024, that’s a disturbing trend that is unlikely to reverse course as Nacua’s stock takes off, but it’s not the most damning. Think about the best four WRs in the sport.
Pause.
Do it and jot it down.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Nacua, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase populated the majority of your list, if not all of it. Those also happen to be the top four names on the receiver leaderboard this season when it comes to yards per route run when their quarterback is under pressure.
That tracks, right? When a signal-caller is feeling the heat, he’s going to seek a comfort target, and why would he not go where he is most comfortable?
Kupp’s yards per route when his QB is pressured by season:
- 2021: 2.58 yards
- 2022: 2.05
- 2023: 1.80 (Nacua: 1.64)
- 2024: 0.74 (Nacua: 3.04)
Oh boy. Kupp has been falling down my preliminary 2025 rankings for a month now, and I’m officially worried — for next season. There’s enough meat on the statistical bone to go back to him this week and for as long as your 2024 extends after last Thursday’s airball.
However, write it in the notes section of your phone now: Kupp isn’t likely to be the price of admission next season.
Puka Nacua, WR
Nacua Matata, it means no worries. Puka Nacua entered this season with high expectations after a historic rookie season, and I’ll admit it, I was one of the skeptics. Not that he wasn’t talented, but that he’d have trouble establishing himself as an elite asset alongside of a healthy Cooper Kupp, something that wasn’t the case when he debuted a season ago.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
As an encore to his massive rookie season, Nacua is averaging 6.1% more PPR points per target this season and has thrown his name in the ring for 1.01 consideration this summer.
Sheesh!
Try this on for size. Over his last five games, Nacua has earned 52 targets on 130 routes. In 2023, he ran 571 routes – if you transposed his recent target per route number over that full season total, we’d be looking at 228.4 targets; if you assign his career catch rate to that figure, a record-breaking 156 receptions.
That’s just a creative way to get to the point you’re already well aware of – this dude is a difference-maker of the highest order. The dead Jets gave up over 20 PPR points to both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the last time they faced a reliable pocket passer.
To say they don’t have an answer for Nacua would be an understatement. Look for your WR1 to clear 95 receiving yards or score for a seventh straight game and give you every chance imaginable to advance in your playoff bracket.
Demarcus Robinson, WR
We were monitoring a shoulder injury for Demarcus Robinson early last week (DNP on Monday and Tuesday), but he ultimately suited up against the 49ers and filled his traditional role (Week 15: 78.6% snap share, 2024: 81.6%).
Having Robinson at close to full strength is nice, but it doesn’t matter. The Rams have won three straight games, and during that run, the Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp tandem has vacuumed in 59.5% of the team’s targets; a crazy rate when you consider that there is a Kupp zero-catch effort in that sample.
Robinson had moments as a reasonable WR handcuff of sorts this season. But with both stars ahead of him currently healthy, there’s no reason to hold. This is a receiver who has played for three franchises over the past four years and could well again be on the move this summer.
Barring a featured role, Robinson won’t be a top-50 receiver for me next season.
