The Los Angeles Rams will travel to take on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9. Here are our betting picks and predictions for this matchup from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 48) at Seattle Seahawks
Katz: Do not adjust your dial. This is not déjà vu, but this is a repeat wager.
If you took this pick last week, a lot of what you’re about to read will be redundant.
The reason JSN doesn’t get downfield targets is because he doesn’t earn them. It wasn’t the offensive coordinator’s fault. It wasn’t Geno Smith’s fault. Smith-Njigba just isn’t that good of a player.
JSN’s 7.6 aDOT is 85th in the league. All he does is rack up receptions underneath. Without DK Metcalf, there may have been an expectation that JSN’s role would change. It didn’t. While he did see an increase in volume, the targets were still underneath.
Smith-Nijgba has one reception for more than 20 yards all season. While the Los Angeles Rams aren’t the most imposing defensive foe, it hasn’t mattered for JSN’s usage. Plus, the Rams have actually been better lately, allowing just 201 passing yards per game over their last three. We may just take this every week for the rest of the year until the line adjusts downward. I would play this down to 19.5.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba longest reception under 20.5 yards
Bearman: I can keep this one simple. The Rams are the better team in my mind. I had them as a playoff team before the season, and it didn’t start off well with losses in four of the first six games. However, they also had injuries to their top two WRs and a shell of an offense.
The Week 6 bye week and the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua solved a lot of problems, and the Rams scored 30 points on a good Vikings defense last week. Now with extra rest off the Thursday night game, they get a Seattle Seahawks team that is an absolute mess since a 3-0 start.
Taking out the win at Atlanta in Week 7, the Seahawks’ four losses in the last five games were all by two scores, including an embarrassing nine-point loss at home to the Giants. The Rams are healthy and have a legit shot to turn their season around with a win to get to .500 and then back-to-back games versus the Dolphins and Patriots.
Pick: Rams ML
Soppe: These divisional matchups feature teams that know one another well and give us plenty of data points to consider. As a result, the lines end up sharper, but I’ll buy into their struggles to properly handicap this rivalry in the past and play it forward.
Unders are 8-1 (88.9%) in the last nine Rams/Seahawks games. Los Angeles has covered seven of those games if you’re more of a spread bettor, though I like the total side more, as I don’t trust both of these inconsistent offenses to score with regularity.
Pick: Under 48.5
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Over their past three games, the Rams have coveted seven-of-nine red zone drives into touchdowns (prior: seven-of-17).
QB: Matthew Stafford posted his best EPA against zone in a game since Week 6, 2021 (it was the first time he posted a positive number since Week 1, the last time he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua)
Offense: In the return of their two star receivers, the Rams operated at their slowest pace of the season and it worked – they averaged a season-best 5.8 yards per play.
Defense: In Weeks 5-8, Los Angeles has allowed opponents to convert just 20% of third downs (Weeks 1-4: 50%).
Fantasy: Puka Nacua dropped the first target on Thursday night, but in his return to action, three of Stafford’s first four passes were directed toward the second-year weapon.
Betting: The Rams kicked off Week 8 on Thursday night – they are 6-15-1 ATS (28.6%) since the beginning of 2019 when playing on extended rest (only the Jets and Texans have been worse in such spots over that stretch). They’ve failed to cover each of their past eight games (average cover margin: -6.1 points)
Seattle Seahawks
Team: This is Seattle’s fourth home game in a five-game stretch—they’ve lost the first three and been outscored 96-54 in those contests (Giants, 49ers, and Bills).
QB: In the first four weeks this season, Geno Smith completed 81% of his out-of-pocket throws. Over the past four weeks, that rate has regressed in a major way: 35.7%.
Offense: Seattle went three-and-out on 55.6% of their drives against the Bills, their second-highest rate since November 1, 2021 (Week 9, 2023, at Ravens).
Defense: In Weeks 1-3, the Seahawks took advantage of their schedule (DEN, NE, and MIA) and allowed just 1.03 points per drive. In their five games since (DET, NYG, SF, ATL, and BUF), they are allowing 2.61 points per drive (up 153.4%)
Fantasy: Kenneth Walker III is already three receptions away from setting a career-high for a season – he has over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all five of his games back from injury.
Betting: The Seahawks are a league-worst 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) after Halloween since 2020 (the Rams are 23-19-1 ATS over that stretch, eighth-best).
Betting: Since 2021, the Seahawks are just 3-7 ATS in home divisional games (unders are 7-3 in those games).