The Los Angeles Rams overcame a 1-4 start to claim the NFC West crown. Now, amid significant tragedy at home due to the Los Angeles wildfires, the Rams will open their playoff run against the Minnesota Vikings playing at Arizona.
Should the Rams advance, who would Sean McVay’s squad potentially run into in the Divisional Round?
What Are the Los Angeles Rams’ Playoff Scenarios?
Los Angeles heads into Wild Card Weekend with a wide range of potential opponents in the Divisional Round. The Rams could face any of four teams, with only the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers (and Vikings) not a possible opponent.
All scenarios and probabilities from here on in will be calculated using the assumption that the Rams have beaten the Vikings. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor gives Los Angeles a 45.1% chance of defeating Minnesota.
For all scenarios outlined in this article, the key is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. When each round of games is over, the lowest remaining seed is paired up to face the highest remaining seed, and the higher seed in every matchup hosts the game.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Rams’ most likely opponent is the Detroit Lions. With both the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles and No. 3 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored to win, Los Angeles would be the lowest remaining seed in the NFC and head to the Motor City.
There is a 32.4% chance that the Rams play their Divisional Round Game in Detroit. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 26.7% chance of playing in Philly, with a game in Tampa Bay at 22.5% and then a matchup against the Commanders at 18.5%.
For the Rams to head to Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers would need to beat the Commanders, and the Packers would need to upset the Eagles on the road. That would send the No. 7-seeded Packers to Detroit, with the Rams facing off against the Bucs in a rematch of the 2021 Divisional Round thriller from Los Angeles’ Super Bowl run that year.
If the Packers beat the Eagles and the Commanders beat the Buccaneers, the Rams would head to Philadelphia. As the No. 6 seed, the Commanders would go to Detroit, and Los Angeles, the No. 4 seed, would hit the road to face the Eagles.
The Rams have a small chance of playing a home game in the Divisional Round, but they would need two upsets in the NFC bracket on Wild Card Weekend. If the Commanders beat the Buccaneers and the Packers beat the Eagles, that would leave the Rams as the second-highest remaining seed. The Packers would head to Detroit, and the Rams would host the sixth-seeded Commanders.
Could the Rams Host the NFC Championship Game?
There are a few paths that could see the Rams hosting the NFC Championship Game. All of them require the top three seeds (Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers) to lose in either the Wild Card Round or the Divisional Round. If the Eagles and Bucs both win on Wild Card Weekend, then the Rams would be the lowest remaining seed and would not be able to host the NFC Championship Game.
Therefore, Los Angeles needs at least one of Green Bay or Washington to win. Then that team needs to go into Detroit and beat the Lions. Meanwhile, the Rams would need to then win their Divisional Round game, leaving them as the highest remaining seed in the NFC.
The only teams seeded fourth or lower to host a Conference Championship since 2000 are the 2021 Los Angeles Rams (No. 4 seed) and the 2008 Arizona Cardinals (No. 4 seed). Both of them defeated No. 6 seeds at home to advance to the Super Bowl.