Out of all NFL playoff games this weekend, the matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions is certainly the most intriguing from a storyline standpoint. You have both starting quarterbacks going against their former team, with Matthew Stafford making his return to Detroit for their first home playoff game in 30 years.
In our Rams vs. Lions prediction, we break down this matchup on both sides of the ball and give out a best bet. But first, let’s dive into the Rams vs. Lions betting odds, where there has been a lot of movement since the lines first came out.
Rams vs. Lions Odds
When the Wild Card round odds were first posted late Sunday night, the Lions opened as high as 5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook.
It was very short-lived, however, as they quickly moved the line down, after they perhaps received a lot of early money on the Rams and the fact that FanDuel Sportsbook opened with the Lions as 3.5-point favorites.
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- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Rams +145, Lions -170 - Total
51.5
Rams vs. Lions Prediction
While the biggest narrative going into this matchup is that Stafford and Jared Goff will each be going against their former teams, this game figures to be a shootout. It features two of the best offenses in the NFL and two very vulnerable units on the other side of the ball.
Both the Rams and Lions finished the season as top-10 offenses by total yards, EPA/play, and success rate. In the second half of the season, when both offenses were mostly healthy, they each were top-five offenses in the NFL by EPA/play.
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The Rams enter this matchup fully healthy on offense. When Stafford had a healthy Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua in the lineup, they were a juggernaut this season. In those eight games, they went 6-2 and averaged more than 26 points and nearly 400 yards per game.
All season long, the Lions have had one of the best offenses in the NFL, as Goff is surrounded by an elite group of playmakers that includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Sam LaPorta, with an offensive line that was one of the best in the NFL as well.
Unfortunately for Detroit, LaPorta is likely out for this game after suffering a knee injury in Week 18.
As impressive as both of these offenses are, these are two well below-average defenses, which is most certainly true with Detroit.
After their bye week in the second half of the season, the Lions’ defense was 26th in EPA/play and allowed an average of 25.6 points per game. Overall, this defense struggled mightily against playoff teams this season, and I don’t expect that to be any different against a fully healthy Rams offense.
While I’m not expecting the Rams to shut down this Lions offense by any means, my lack of faith in Detroit’s defense has me liking Stafford getting a field goal against his former team.
I grabbed the Rams at +4.5 before the line dropped, but I still like them getting three points or more. I lean towards the over as well, but I don’t see much value right now with the total at a key number of 51.5.
Rams vs. Lions Prediction: Rams +3 (-105 at ESPN BET)
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